Is Onex sniffing around?

[Localizer]

I’ve had a few people from team teal tell me Onex is buying AT? Not trying to start a fire storm, but I’m interested to see what other people are hearing. I hope it’s not true, I wouldn’t want a good company like AT to end up becoming the gong-show WJ seems to be.

[CFM Symphony]

I suppose all is possible. However, with Sunwing now no longer an independent competitor, and with the imminent demise of Flair, the competitive landscape has changed a lot in a short time. A WJ-AT consolidation will be viewed much more skeptically by the competition bureau especially given that there is significant market overlap, mostly in Sun destinations.

[DanWEC]

Don’t let this distract you from the fact that Hector is going to be running three Honda civics with spoon engines, and on top of that, he just went into Harry’s and bought three t66 turbos with nos, and a motec exhaust system.

[safetyfirst123]

I can't see the value for Onex, unless a sweetheart deal is reached to significantly reduce the approximately $1.7 Billion in debt that Transat carries.

[FlyingMonkey]

Why would Onex want all that debt with an incompatible fleet type? No disrespect to AT, but they were struggling mightily prior to Covid.

[Localizer]

Why would Onex want all that debt with an incompatible fleet type? No disrespect to AT, but they were struggling mightily prior to Covid.

All interesting points ..

I don’t think AT was struggling before the pandemic, they had a lot of money in the bank and low debt before covid drained them and reversed their fortunes. I think the company is on the right track and the fleet going forward is going to be beneficial .. what does the future hold? No idea .. I would suspect the route structure and European slots are fairly valuable and for as much as people keep betting against them, they’re still here and the pay checks come on time.

[Latitude]

Hopefully they dont. Westjet and Sunwing are both disasters, it’s better they dont touch Transat.

[Latitude]

I can't see the value for Onex, unless a sweetheart deal is reached to significantly reduce the approximately $1.7 Billion in debt that Transat carries.

Do you really think a corporation that buys another corporation does it only when it’s debt free ? There are no airline debt free. AC has many billions in debt, Sunwing has hundreds of millions in debt towards the government yet Westjet bought them.

I find it really funny that people mention debt only when it’s about Transat, yet all the others are full of debt.

And before you bring the comparison with pre pandemic, Transat today vs pre pandemic are two different beast. Much leaner overall and yet management says it’s still leaning it more and working on it. People really underestimate them

[DanWEC]

If a small sample is enough, ONEX might as well be EIC. I wouldn't want anything to do with them.

[safetyfirst123]

I can't see the value for Onex, unless a sweetheart deal is reached to significantly reduce the approximately $1.7 Billion in debt that Transat carries.

Do you really think a corporation that buys another corporation does it only when it’s debt free ? There are no airline debt free. AC has many billions in debt, Sunwing has hundreds of millions in debt towards the government yet Westjet bought them.

I find it really funny that people mention debt only when it’s about Transat, yet all the others are full of debt.

And before you bring the comparison with pre pandemic, Transat today vs pre pandemic are two different beast. Much leaner overall and yet management says it’s still leaning it more and working on it. People really underestimate them

It's not because Transat has debt, but rather the amount of debt and its ability to pay it off. Even in their latest Q1 2023 Report, they state "As at January 31, 2023, a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the Corporation’s ability to continue
as a going concern"

I love Air Transat, they are far and above what Sunwing and Westjet currently offer, but the reality is that their debt is well above any other airline of similar size.

[TFTMB heavy]

I can't see the value for Onex, unless a sweetheart deal is reached to significantly reduce the approximately $1.7 Billion in debt that Transat carries.

Do you really think a corporation that buys another corporation does it only when it’s debt free ? There are no airline debt free. AC has many billions in debt, Sunwing has hundreds of millions in debt towards the government yet Westjet bought them.

I find it really funny that people mention debt only when it’s about Transat, yet all the others are full of debt.

And before you bring the comparison with pre pandemic, Transat today vs pre pandemic are two different beast. Much leaner overall and yet management says it’s still leaning it more and working on it. People really underestimate them

It's not because Transat has debt, but rather the amount of debt and its ability to pay it off. Even in their latest Q1 2023 Report, they state "As at January 31, 2023, a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the Corporation’s ability to continue
as a going concern"

I love Air Transat, they are far and above what Sunwing and Westjet currently offer, but the reality is that their debt is well above any other airline of similar size.

You're quoting "caution regarding forward looking statements", the part of the report that the lawyers write. Not saying it's not true but quoting just that casts some shade on the great improvements and positive results of this quarter.

[YC87DRVR]

Be an interesting merger of Pilot groups. What seems like one of the happiest groups (Transat) merging with the unhappiest group. For the sake of the Transat group I hope it doesn’t happen.

[TFTMB heavy]

Be an interesting merger of Pilot groups. What seems like one of the happiest groups (Transat) merging with the unhappiest group. For the sake of the Transat group I hope it doesn’t happen.

Westjet was one of the happiest groups once upon a time. Seems like the switch from one base and ports to three bases and no ports was the beginning of the end.

[cloak]

There have been speculations about this for some time, and it does present some benefits. WestJet which now has better access to the Quebec market, will have even better access and gain nearly 20% presence in the Atlantic market. Concerns of the Competition Bureau will likely not be as many as they were with AC and concerns of Europeans which had to do with EU market share and their airport slots, will not exist in this case as WestJet has little of either and certainly nothing comparable with AC. In fact, overnight is born a new national airline that can improve competition to EU and elsewhere and choices for Canadians. It will also be a lifeline for Transat, so likely the federal and provincial governments will endorse it.

The question remains over the value of the deal for WestJet and Onex. Although overnight Onex will have the true national airline that they have wanted for over two decades, will it be "cheaper" and "easier" to go this way, with all the debt that AT has, the cost and troubles of mergers of two seemingly "different" types and workforce, or will doing it alone and growing naturally and dynamically? I feel it will depend on the market conditions and the availability of human and other resources to make it happen. Ane most importantly, is that still what Onex wants.

[newlygrounded]

I can't see the value for Onex, unless a sweetheart deal is reached to significantly reduce the approximately $1.7 Billion in debt that Transat carries.

Do you really think a corporation that buys another corporation does it only when it’s debt free ? There are no airline debt free. AC has many billions in debt, Sunwing has hundreds of millions in debt towards the government yet Westjet bought them.

I find it really funny that people mention debt only when it’s about Transat, yet all the others are full of debt.

And before you bring the comparison with pre pandemic, Transat today vs pre pandemic are two different beast. Much leaner overall and yet management says it’s still leaning it more and working on it. People really underestimate them

AT can't pay their covid debt at their current revenues though? I doubt AC is in that boat

[FL320]

I can't see the value for Onex, unless a sweetheart deal is reached to significantly reduce the approximately $1.7 Billion in debt that Transat carries.

Do you really think a corporation that buys another corporation does it only when it’s debt free ? There are no airline debt free. AC has many billions in debt, Sunwing has hundreds of millions in debt towards the government yet Westjet bought them.

I find it really funny that people mention debt only when it’s about Transat, yet all the others are full of debt.

And before you bring the comparison with pre pandemic, Transat today vs pre pandemic are two different beast. Much leaner overall and yet management says it’s still leaning it more and working on it. People really underestimate them

No matter the actual amount of debt; there is absolutely no stress as the Quebec Gov will always stand behind: 100% garanteed. It’s like AC…Transat will never collapse
One thing I can add is that Transat is going through major positive transformations internally and they seem to have no limit on the money available to make the airline more efficient; it definitely is not the same airline as pre-covid.

[averageatbest]

The question remains over the value of the deal for WestJet and Onex. Although overnight Onex will have the true national airline that they have wanted for over two decades

Ah yes, the "true national airline" that gives the middle finger to half of the country. It's a great business strategy.

[FL320]

The question remains over the value of the deal for WestJet and Onex. Although overnight Onex will have the true national airline that they have wanted for over two decades

Ah yes, the "true national airline" that gives the middle finger to half of the country. It's a great business strategy.

There is one clown who’s been giving the middle finger to the entire country for many years and his business is still working

[fish4life]

AT has far too much debt to be worth any sort of acquisition. WJ had 1.5 billion in cash when they were acquired whereas AT is the exact opposite.

For reference AT has a market cap of 120million. EIC bought Carson for 60 million so even the public market doesn’t put much value in AT.

[hithere]

Transat can and probably will remain independent for years to come. They have a very loyal customer following, will be forever propped up by the Quebec government and I think being bought out by ONEX would actually hurt their brand.

[NotDirty!]

The question remains over the value of the deal for WestJet and Onex. Although overnight Onex will have the true national airline that they have wanted for over two decades

Ah yes, the "true national airline" that gives the middle finger to half of the country. It's a great business strategy.

There is one clown who’s been giving the middle finger to the entire country for many years and his business is still working

I think you’re thinking of this clown’s father, and it was just the Queen, not the entire country!

[TFTMB heavy]

AT has far too much debt to be worth any sort of acquisition. WJ had 1.5 billion in cash when they were acquired whereas AT is the exact opposite.

For reference AT has a market cap of 120million. EIC bought Carson for 60 million so even the public market doesn’t put much value in AT.

All true but don't forget that there's a real threat to AC if Onex is sniffing around and that makes TS more desirable. AC went public with an offer after Onex put in their offer for Westjet in 2019.

Personally and selfishly I hope we are left alone and continue with the new model management is working on. Realistically though, with our network, high passenger satisfaction, airplane orders and unfortunately our balance sheet we are attractive for either WS or AC to help considerate the market and fight off domestic and foreign competition.

[rudder]

AT has far too much debt to be worth any sort of acquisition. WJ had 1.5 billion in cash when they were acquired whereas AT is the exact opposite.

For reference AT has a market cap of 120million. EIC bought Carson for 60 million so even the public market doesn’t put much value in AT.

All true but don't forget that there's a real threat to AC if Onex is sniffing around and that makes TS more desirable. AC went public with an offer after Onex put in their offer for Westjet in 2019.

Personally and selfishly I hope we are left alone and continue with the new model management is working on. Realistically though, with our network, high passenger satisfaction, airplane orders and unfortunately our balance sheet we are attractive for either WS or AC to help considerate the market and fight off domestic and foreign competition.

AC won’t be back. It made sense at the time, then it had to be ‘tweaked’ to make sense (much lower price), then it was only going to get regulatory approval subject to route rationalization (not very appealing to AC so they punted on it).

That ship has sailed. But I could see ONEX acquiring TRZ (get rid of any hotel assets but keep tour company and airline) and examining the network possibilities of WJ/SW/AT. I would terminate the AT/Porter cooperation agreement. Issue would be the Competition Bureau complaining about consolidation/lack of competition in the scheduled charter sector.

Anyway, people are free to take bold positions about independence until the cupboards are dry and insolvency is looming. Hopefully that will not be the case anytime soon for any Canadian air carriers.

[TFTMB heavy]

AT has far too much debt to be worth any sort of acquisition. WJ had 1.5 billion in cash when they were acquired whereas AT is the exact opposite.

For reference AT has a market cap of 120million. EIC bought Carson for 60 million so even the public market doesn’t put much value in AT.

All true but don't forget that there's a real threat to AC if Onex is sniffing around and that makes TS more desirable. AC went public with an offer after Onex put in their offer for Westjet in 2019.

Personally and selfishly I hope we are left alone and continue with the new model management is working on. Realistically though, with our network, high passenger satisfaction, airplane orders and unfortunately our balance sheet we are attractive for either WS or AC to help considerate the market and fight off domestic and foreign competition.

AC won’t be back. It made sense at the time, then it had to be ‘tweaked’ to make sense (much lower price), then it was only going to get regulatory approval subject to route rationalization (not very appealing to AC so they punted on it).

That ship has sailed. But I could see ONEX acquiring TRZ (get rid of any hotel assets but keep tour company and airline) and examining the network possibilities of WJ/SW/AT. I would terminate the AT/Porter cooperation agreement. Issue would be the Competition Bureau complaining about consolidation/lack of competition in the scheduled charter sector.

Anyway, people are free to take bold positions about independence until the cupboards are dry and insolvency is looming. Hopefully that will not be the case anytime soon for any Canadian air carriers.

Sadly it's CCAA, dilute the shares or an influx of cash thru an acquisition by another party. I'm not convinced AC is out of the picture but I hope so. It's the least appealing merger for now even with the ACPA/ALPA merger. My dealings with ACPA and Air Canada management have not been positive.

[Localizer]

Question .. why is Transat’s debt such a concern to people on this forum? I’m not disputing that it’s an issue and it obviously needs to be addressed, but AC has a $16 billion dollar debt that doesn’t seem to bother anyone.

I’m looking for informed answers, not snarky remarks fyi.