2023 Q3 results

[TFTMB heavy]

The improvements in 2023 continue. We are not out of trouble yet but it is encouraging.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/t ... 28469.html

[fish4life]

Glad to see things turning around.

Had their been any talk of how the PW1100 recall is going to effect AT?

[TFTMB heavy]

Glad to see things turning around.

Had their been any talk of how the PW1100 recall is going to effect AT?

I heard that we have two engines that are affected. I havens seen any official statement from the company.

[330heavy]

Glad to see things turning around.

Had their been any talk of how the PW1100 recall is going to effect AT?

According to the Q3 investors call, the engine issues are not a concern until 2025. They are currently working with PW/RTX regarding if and how many.
Overall encouraging results, congrats to the management team to getting back to profit, and paying down debt.

[DanWEC]

Have yet to go through the report, but did they tally the land sale as part of the adjusted net income for q3?

[Brakefans]

Glad to see things turning around.

Had their been any talk of how the PW1100 recall is going to effect AT?

According to the Q3 investors call, the engine issues are not a concern until 2025. They are currently working with PW/RTX regarding if and how many.
Overall encouraging results, congrats to the management team to getting back to profit, and paying down debt.

No debt has been paid down yet.

[TFTMB heavy]

Glad to see things turning around.

Had their been any talk of how the PW1100 recall is going to effect AT?

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... hXq26w_RS8

[FL320]

Glad to see things turning around.

Had their been any talk of how the PW1100 recall is going to effect AT?

According to the Q3 investors call, the engine issues are not a concern until 2025. They are currently working with PW/RTX regarding if and how many.
Overall encouraging results, congrats to the management team to getting back to profit, and paying down debt.

No debt has been paid down yet.

131M$ has been paid back so far + 50M$ coming up from the sell of the land in Mexico. By the end of 2024 about another 400M is expected to be paid back

Other than that I bet that in less than 2 years Transat will be bought and the debt paid back.

[Brakefans]

According to the Q3 investors call, the engine issues are not a concern until 2025. They are currently working with PW/RTX regarding if and how many.
Overall encouraging results, congrats to the management team to getting back to profit, and paying down debt.

No debt has been paid down yet.

131M$ has been paid back so far + 50M$ coming up from the sell of the land in Mexico. By the end of 2024 about another 400M is expected to be paid back

Other than that I bet that in less than 2 years Transat will be bought and the debt paid back.

Thanks for the numbers. Maybe ask where I can find them? Looking at their presentation, it’s still showing 850 million of debt.

https://www.transat.com/getmedia/1bc9e7 ... x?ext=.pdf

[Brakefans]

According to the Q3 investors call, the engine issues are not a concern until 2025. They are currently working with PW/RTX regarding if and how many.
Overall encouraging results, congrats to the management team to getting back to profit, and paying down debt.

No debt has been paid down yet.

131M$ has been paid back so far + 50M$ coming up from the sell of the land in Mexico. By the end of 2024 about another 400M is expected to be paid back

Other than that I bet that in less than 2 years Transat will be bought and the debt paid back.

Any update on where you see they paid back 131M in loans? Investor's presentation document p.16 still showing 850M in long-term debt with interest rates for some tranches as high as 15%. Total debt when you take into account leases obligations is as high as 1.5 billion, which is actually an increase over last quarter (1.3 billion).

[Old fella]

The improvements in 2023 continue. We are not out of trouble yet but it is encouraging.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/t ... 28469.html

Positive news, certainly great to hear. I have never flown AT but know of acquaintances who did and from that I heard you offer a good product.

[Brakefans]

CFO jumping ship. Never a good sign, maybe that’s why the stock is down 40% since this summer

[DanWEC]

If you had an offer to be the CFO of a company over 100x the size of your current ward, with a gigantic raise, you wouldn't take it?

Pssst AC stock is also down exactly 40% since summer as well.... and Jazz -35%..... CJT -25%, United -45%, Delta -44%... virtually every public North American Airline is presenting the same.

I don't know why people here fixate on execs, the average tenure for C-suite is between 5 and 10 years. Some much less. They're just climbing the ladder like any other position. Airline positions are among the most stressful, reactive, and unpredictable.

[330heavy]

Mr Bui, is going for a much substantial pay raise, and who can blame him. He did a great job at Air Transat, and set the foundation for recovery. His leaving has no affect, and I'm not concerned.

And as DanWEC mentioned, ALL stocks are down, AC at it's Oct 2020 low, I even have shares in them. Doesn't make sense, but this is the times we are in.

[cdnavater]

Mr Bui, is going for a much substantial pay raise, and who can blame him. He did a great job at Air Transat, and set the foundation for recovery. His leaving has no affect, and I'm not concerned.

And as DanWEC mentioned, ALL stocks are down, AC at it's Oct 2020 low, I even have shares in them. Doesn't make sense, but this is the times we are in.

Agreed, all stocks in airlines have the risk of economic collapse being built in despite load factors seemingly unchanged. Every flight I’ve been on for commuting and personal travel for the last while have been full or nearly full.

[Inverted2]

Stocks in everything is down. That time of the year but I think it’s gonna get real ugly in 2024/25 when mortgage renewals come up. If you go car shopping the financing rates are 7-11%

I am still seeing massive demand for travel when I’m at work but eventually it will slow down.

[Brakefans]

If you had an offer to be the CFO of a company over 100x the size of your current ward, with a gigantic raise, you wouldn't take it?

Pssst AC stock is also down exactly 40% since summer as well.... and Jazz -35%..... CJT -25%, United -45%, Delta -44%... virtually every public North American Airline is presenting the same.

I don't know why people here fixate on execs, the average tenure for C-suite is between 5 and 10 years. Some much less. They're just climbing the ladder like any other position. Airline positions are among the most stressful, reactive, and unpredictable.

Agreed, the whole sector is down, central banks are signalling interest rates are going to stay high for a while and discretionary income is definitely being eroded. On top of that, price of oil is climbing.

Meanwhile, Transat's CFO is leaving, none of the debt (900 million) has been refinanced yet, some of which with rates as high as 15%. Yes, they have sold some land (albeit for less than they paid for). Transat is in an extremely vulnerable position, high debt, high interest and virtually all their traffic is tied to discretionary income. I bet the CFO was encouraged to leave following his inability to tackle the debt, and now it's too late. Some covenants have been suspended until the end of October, hopefully they negotiate something by then.

Let's face it. Bui is leaving, Lemay has left and Henebelle is at AC. Not exactly boding well. They might have to consider a training bond for management position

[DanWEC]

Agreed, the whole sector is down, central banks are signalling interest rates are going to stay high for a while and discretionary income is definitely being eroded. On top of that, price of oil is climbing.

Meanwhile, Transat's CFO is leaving, none of the debt (900 million) has been refinanced yet, some of which with rates as high as 15%. Yes, they have sold some land (albeit for less than they paid for). Transat is in an extremely vulnerable position, high debt, high interest and virtually all their traffic is tied to discretionary income. I bet the CFO was encouraged to leave following his inability to tackle the debt, and now it's too late. Some covenants have been suspended until the end of October, hopefully they negotiate something by then.

Let's face it. Bui is leaving, Lemay has left and Henebelle is at AC. Not exactly boding well. They might have to consider a training bond for management position

Being speculative, airline stocks are a good view of what economists and analysts are thinking for the mid-term outlook, and they're clearly not very optimistic on what's on the horizon. Will have to see. Regardless, I have a lot of respect for the new team, and there's no financial debate that they've absolutely crushed the transition and reinvention.

The problem is this debt isn't just intractable but may be completely insurmountable. An ACE holdings scenario may be realistically on the horizon. Nobody's going to be buying this debt and servicing it will be an ongoing impediment to profitability. The company would just be operating handcuffed purely to service the facilities. At the very least the interests will be renegotiated as no lender wants to lose their principal altogether, and the Fed doesn't want to be the one who bankrupts Transat. Time will tell.

Just to clarify a few things about the personel changes, Bui absolutely wasn't asked to leave, it was a sudden announcement as Transat is only now starting to look for a new CFO. Normally these things would have started months ahead if not longer. While TS knew he was in the running, he just got the notice from DOL that he was their final selection. He's a bit of a prodigy and likely will continue making news in business. Lumpe likely won't stay once his transition mission is complete, the task is the only reason he's here. None of these are lifetime positions, it's just business.

Hennebelle took a 3x pay raise to join AC. Can't fault any of this. There is no reason any exec wouldn't go to AC, they are truly golden jobs and they look after themselves. Their CEO makes 12x what AG does at TS. They pay everyone but their labour force. Heck, they even tried to hand themselves bonuses with the bailout loan while pilots were fully laid off, and not even providing them with full CEWS like they did at TS!

[Babar350]

Some covenants have been suspended until the end of October, hopefully they negotiate something by then.

Which ones ?

[Brakefans]

Some covenants have been suspended until the end of October, hopefully they negotiate something by then.

Which ones ?

covenants attached to bank loans, for a total on 130 million or so