Shutting down most of the airline

[KittyFlyer]

Has management shut down most of the airline?

Flair flew 688 flights in August but is only flying 320 in November. Even ASMs (which account for flight length changes) are down by more than 40%.

Is management shutting down most of the airline without announcing it or telling anyone?

Lynx has actually increased ASMs between August and November. As has Porter.

“Strongholds” like YKF have been decimated from 39 flights a week in August to just 7 flights a week in November. On Mondays and Wednesdays there are zero flights from what should be a monopoly airport.

London has gone from 10 flights a week to zero. Shut down.

Windsor is also shut down.

What is going on?

[the_new_guy]

Has management shut down most of the airline?

Flair flew 688 flights in August but is only flying 320 in November. Even ASMs (which account for flight length changes) are down by more than 40%.

Is management shutting down most of the airline without announcing it or telling anyone?

Lynx has actually increased ASMs between August and November. As has Porter.

“Strongholds” like YKF have been decimated from 39 flights a week in August to just 7 flights a week in November. On Mondays and Wednesdays there are zero flights from what should be a monopoly airport.

London has gone from 10 flights a week to zero. Shut down.

Windsor is also shut down.

What is going on?

Between heavy maintenance (C checks and the likes), slower month generally in aviation, planes heading to Australia, a switch to a more seasonal approach (sun flying vs domestic) and a few charters we're picking up, yeah November is showing slower numbers. But I wouldn't read to much into it.

December will be fuller on the sched side, there's just no need operating in full swing during the slowest month of the year. There's a few other things that needed to be taken care of, such as maintenance like stated. And, the approach taken is changing a bit, trying to minimize unnecessary expenses and less than ideal loads.

Charters and acmi ops are good for revenu during slower months, and London flights and the likes were always going to be seasonal. Like Quebec, Saint John, Victoria, Kelowna (from yyz) etc.

Hope this answers your question.

[up on one]

Unpopular opinion but how I see it there are only two options.

https://www.amazon.ca/SeaSense-50074110 ... B0019M3JUQ


https://www.flyporter.com/en/about-porter/careers

[KittyFlyer]

Unpopular opinion but how I see it there are only two options.

https://www.amazon.ca/SeaSense-50074110 ... B0019M3JUQ


https://www.flyporter.com/en/about-porter/careers

This kind of snark is unnecessary. It adds nothing to the discourse.

[KittyFlyer]

Has management shut down most of the airline?

Flair flew 688 flights in August but is only flying 320 in November. Even ASMs (which account for flight length changes) are down by more than 40%.

Is management shutting down most of the airline without announcing it or telling anyone?

Lynx has actually increased ASMs between August and November. As has Porter.

“Strongholds” like YKF have been decimated from 39 flights a week in August to just 7 flights a week in November. On Mondays and Wednesdays there are zero flights from what should be a monopoly airport.

London has gone from 10 flights a week to zero. Shut down.

Windsor is also shut down.

What is going on?

Between heavy maintenance (C checks and the likes), slower month generally in aviation, planes heading to Australia, a switch to a more seasonal approach (sun flying vs domestic) and a few charters we're picking up, yeah November is showing slower numbers. But I wouldn't read to much into it.

December will be fuller on the sched side, there's just no need operating in full swing during the slowest month of the year. There's a few other things that needed to be taken care of, such as maintenance like stated. And, the approach taken is changing a bit, trying to minimize unnecessary expenses and less than ideal loads.

Charters and acmi ops are good for revenu during slower months, and London flights and the likes were always going to be seasonal. Like Quebec, Saint John, Victoria, Kelowna (from yyz) etc.

Hope this answers your question.

Hi the_new_guy,

Are you sure that’s not just what they want us to believe? You made four points:

1) Planes are doing heavy maintenance such as C-checks


C-checks are major maintenance events that take at least 15 days for each aircraft. Planes are taken out of service and flown to a dedicated location. Yet, 16 out of 18 Flair MAXs were in service as recently as yesterday / today.

How do can we know for sure without relying on what management says? Each aircraft is equipped with an ADS-B transmitter and can be tracked in real-time. You can click through the link below and see for yourself. Only 2 of the 18 MAXs are without a recent touch point. One is C-FLKC, which last flew on November 2nd. The other is C-FLEJ. By the way, C-FLKC is not in a C-check, it is in YYC.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airl ... -fle/fleet


2) Planes are headed to Australia

The data in the link I shared shows that none of the aircraft have yet left Canada. Actually, maybe C-FLEJ has, but that’s 1 aircraft out of 18. Does not explain more than 50% reduction in flying.


3) We are picking up charters

The ADS-B tracker shows almost no charter activity. All flying is scheduled rev flying. The aircraft that would do 4 - 5 segment a day are doing 2 segments and are just sitting on the ground unused.



4) December will be fuller on the sched side

That is just not the case. Only 350 flights are scheduled for the entire month in December compared to 688 in August. It is a 49% reduction!


We can stick our heads in the sand but the reality is really ugly.

[YC87DRVR]

Is the reduction in flying being forced by lack of crews??

I have heard AC/Westjet/Porter have all had several Flair pilots (Captains & FO’s) in every single ground school they have been running recently. I’d also assume they don’t have a lineup of Pilots looking to join with Flair’s future outlook, so I’d find it hard to believe they would be able to fly a full schedule even if they wanted to.

[777CA]

Deleted

[SPR]

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airl ... -fle/fleet

This is an excellent, concise resource which raises a lot more questions that management will have trouble brushing off. Both NGs have been ferried to Tucson, FFLJ on Nov 5 and FFLC on Oct 11, so the latter has been out of service for a full month; I presume both are going into storage in the desert. FLEJ went to YLW on Oct 11, which could possibly be for maintenance at KF Aero, but I find it strange that two planes were parked on the same day. As mentioned above, FLKC has been in YYC since Nov 2, and is just sitting outside Skyservice, not undergoing maintenance. I can only find five tails which have operated at all today.

Word on another forum is that the reductions in YYC have already resulted in layoffs for ground staff. That's not typically something airlines do when they're planning on ramping ops back up in a month.

[fish4life]

Flair’s business model probably requires higher load factors so it’s probably cheaper to park aircraft in the shoulder seasons than run them half full

[the_new_guy]

Has management shut down most of the airline?

Flair flew 688 flights in August but is only flying 320 in November. Even ASMs (which account for flight length changes) are down by more than 40%.

Is management shutting down most of the airline without announcing it or telling anyone?

Lynx has actually increased ASMs between August and November. As has Porter.

“Strongholds” like YKF have been decimated from 39 flights a week in August to just 7 flights a week in November. On Mondays and Wednesdays there are zero flights from what should be a monopoly airport.

London has gone from 10 flights a week to zero. Shut down.

Windsor is also shut down.

What is going on?

Between heavy maintenance (C checks and the likes), slower month generally in aviation, planes heading to Australia, a switch to a more seasonal approach (sun flying vs domestic) and a few charters we're picking up, yeah November is showing slower numbers. But I wouldn't read to much into it.

December will be fuller on the sched side, there's just no need operating in full swing during the slowest month of the year. There's a few other things that needed to be taken care of, such as maintenance like stated. And, the approach taken is changing a bit, trying to minimize unnecessary expenses and less than ideal loads.

Charters and acmi ops are good for revenu during slower months, and London flights and the likes were always going to be seasonal. Like Quebec, Saint John, Victoria, Kelowna (from yyz) etc.

Hope this answers your question.

Hi the_new_guy,

Are you sure that’s not just what they want us to believe? You made four points:

1) Planes are doing heavy maintenance such as C-checks


C-checks are major maintenance events that take at least 15 days for each aircraft. Planes are taken out of service and flown to a dedicated location. Yet, 16 out of 18 Flair MAXs were in service as recently as yesterday / today.

How do can we know for sure without relying on what management says? Each aircraft is equipped with an ADS-B transmitter and can be tracked in real-time. You can click through the link below and see for yourself. Only 2 of the 18 MAXs are without a recent touch point. One is C-FLKC, which last flew on November 2nd. The other is C-FLEJ. By the way, C-FLKC is not in a C-check, it is in YYC.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airl ... -fle/fleet


2) Planes are headed to Australia

The data in the link I shared shows that none of the aircraft have yet left Canada. Actually, maybe C-FLEJ has, but that’s 1 aircraft out of 18. Does not explain more than 50% reduction in flying.


3) We are picking up charters

The ADS-B tracker shows almost no charter activity. All flying is scheduled rev flying. The aircraft that would do 4 - 5 segment a day are doing 2 segments and are just sitting on the ground unused.



4) December will be fuller on the sched side

That is just not the case. Only 350 flights are scheduled for the entire month in December compared to 688 in August. It is a 49% reduction!


We can stick our heads in the sand but the reality is really ugly.

That's good data you're providing.

What I said wasn't management talking points, just what I presumed could explain it away. There's definitely a lack of pilots in certain bases, and in a very distinctive way overstaffed bases also which is a problem for us. So maybe reducing the flying has to do with it in part at least.

There's a few charters coming our way if we're able to staff them. It definitively doesn't explain the slowdown we're seeing. While I can point to factors, I can't say for sure what the cause is.

I honestly don't think a shut down is what we're seeing though. Maybe someone within management could explain better what the situation is.

So let's wait and see if they answer the question.

[Flipflopfly]

Has management shut down most of the airline?

Flair flew 688 flights in August but is only flying 320 in November. Even ASMs (which account for flight length changes) are down by more than 40%.

Is management shutting down most of the airline without announcing it or telling anyone?

Lynx has actually increased ASMs between August and November. As has Porter.

“Strongholds” like YKF have been decimated from 39 flights a week in August to just 7 flights a week in November. On Mondays and Wednesdays there are zero flights from what should be a monopoly airport.

London has gone from 10 flights a week to zero. Shut down.

Windsor is also shut down.

What is going on?

Can you provide the source of your data? The article below sites data by OAG saying Flair was to operate over 2000 flights in may 2023 I doubt they did under 700 in August. I know they ended up losing the planes so not sure if that 2000 number was reached

https://simpleflying.com/inside-canadas-flair/

And their September performance press release indicates over 2500 flights.

https://www.travelpulse.ca/news/airline ... yqb-routes

[JustaCanadian]

I honestly don't think a shut down is what we're seeing though. Maybe someone within management could explain better what the situation is.

So let's wait and see if they answer the question.

Management here! Everything is fine!/s

IMG_0365.jpeg (248.26 KiB) Viewed 3423 times

Sorry for the tasteless humour, I am not management and hope all is well.

[KittyFlyer]

Has management shut down most of the airline?

Flair flew 688 flights in August but is only flying 320 in November. Even ASMs (which account for flight length changes) are down by more than 40%.

Is management shutting down most of the airline without announcing it or telling anyone?

Lynx has actually increased ASMs between August and November. As has Porter.

“Strongholds” like YKF have been decimated from 39 flights a week in August to just 7 flights a week in November. On Mondays and Wednesdays there are zero flights from what should be a monopoly airport.

London has gone from 10 flights a week to zero. Shut down.

Windsor is also shut down.

What is going on?

Can you provide the source of your data? The article below sites data by OAG saying Flair was to operate over 2000 flights in may 2023 I doubt they did under 700 in August. I know they ended up losing the planes so not sure if that 2000 number was reached

https://simpleflying.com/inside-canadas-flair/

And their September performance press release indicates over 2500 flights.

https://www.travelpulse.ca/news/airline ... yqb-routes

Hi Flipflopfly, the source of data is Cirium. August data is based on actual flights operated and November / December data is based on schedules that Flair is selling today.

You can do spot checks on the website yourself. For example, in August there were 44 flights each week in YWG. Now, there are just 4 each week, which is a more than 90% cut. There used to be more flights every day than there is in the whole week.

Calgary gone from 87 week to 27 a week. Decimated.

[KittyFlyer]

Has management shut down most of the airline?

Flair flew 688 flights in August but is only flying 320 in November. Even ASMs (which account for flight length changes) are down by more than 40%.

Is management shutting down most of the airline without announcing it or telling anyone?

Lynx has actually increased ASMs between August and November. As has Porter.

“Strongholds” like YKF have been decimated from 39 flights a week in August to just 7 flights a week in November. On Mondays and Wednesdays there are zero flights from what should be a monopoly airport.

London has gone from 10 flights a week to zero. Shut down.

Windsor is also shut down.

What is going on?

Can you provide the source of your data? The article below sites data by OAG saying Flair was to operate over 2000 flights in may 2023 I doubt they did under 700 in August. I know they ended up losing the planes so not sure if that 2000 number was reached

https://simpleflying.com/inside-canadas-flair/

And their September performance press release indicates over 2500 flights.

https://www.travelpulse.ca/news/airline ... yqb-routes

By the way, I am talking flights per week in a given month, not flights for the entire month. You have to multiply by roughly 4.25 to get to monthly numbers.

[Flipflopfly]

Has management shut down most of the airline?

Flair flew 688 flights in August but is only flying 320 in November. Even ASMs (which account for flight length changes) are down by more than 40%.

Is management shutting down most of the airline without announcing it or telling anyone?

Lynx has actually increased ASMs between August and November. As has Porter.

“Strongholds” like YKF have been decimated from 39 flights a week in August to just 7 flights a week in November. On Mondays and Wednesdays there are zero flights from what should be a monopoly airport.

London has gone from 10 flights a week to zero. Shut down.

Windsor is also shut down.

What is going on?

Can you provide the source of your data? The article below sites data by OAG saying Flair was to operate over 2000 flights in may 2023 I doubt they did under 700 in August. I know they ended up losing the planes so not sure if that 2000 number was reached

https://simpleflying.com/inside-canadas-flair/

And their September performance press release indicates over 2500 flights.

https://www.travelpulse.ca/news/airline ... yqb-routes

By the way, I am talking flights per week in a given month, not flights for the entire month. You have to multiply by roughly 4.25 to get to monthly numbers.

Those numbers make more sense, thanks! Do you have the same stats for those same months in 2022?

[KittyFlyer]

Can you provide the source of your data? The article below sites data by OAG saying Flair was to operate over 2000 flights in may 2023 I doubt they did under 700 in August. I know they ended up losing the planes so not sure if that 2000 number was reached

https://simpleflying.com/inside-canadas-flair/

And their September performance press release indicates over 2500 flights.

https://www.travelpulse.ca/news/airline ... yqb-routes

By the way, I am talking flights per week in a given month, not flights for the entire month. You have to multiply by roughly 4.25 to get to monthly numbers.

Those numbers make more sense, thanks! Do you have the same stats for those same months in 2022?

I don’t. But I am quite sure that November 2023 is a lot lower than November 2022, with the same number of aircraft.

And Lynx grew its ASMs between August 2023 and November 2023. Porter did too. The majority shutdown at Flair is not normal.

[ready]

Those are some interesting numbers for sure. Most of those Airports you mentioned were seasonal so no big surprise of the reductions to them in November. What will be interesting is to see if the flying comes back in mid December when the busy winter schedule is supposed to start up. Only time will tell I guess. That's some good info you brought up though.

[compilot]

December schedules are available for bidding. No additional flights in December vs. November for my base…

[Smilin' Jack]

If it wasn't for the 4, 5 and 6 day pairings, there would probably only be enough flying for about 30% of the pilots at my base.

In spite of the fact that almost none of the pairings are being paid 4 hours min. daily credit some idiots will probably still bid for them because they have a warm layover.

[CaptDukeNukem]

If it wasn't for the 4, 5 and 6 day pairings, there would probably only be enough flying for about 30% of the pilots at my base.

In spite of the fact that almost none of the pairings are being paid 4 hours min. daily credit some idiots will probably still bid for them because they have a warm layover.

I thought your fearless leader tbaylx was looking into these pairings that are blatant violations your agreement. There’s many mentions of these on avcanada