The elephant in the room

[JungleRiot]

It's inevitable

[cdnavater]

I guess I’m missing something, what recent events or more to the point how recent?
Haven’t heard much of anything in the last month or so.

[Michel Myers]

Nah you aren’t missing anything. The typical trolls here haven’t read anything negative about flair in the media in awhile so they need to keep pushing their hate and strange desire for the failure of a Canadian Airline.

[flying4dollars]

It's inevitable

What exactly is this thread based on?

[Old fella]

Well… looking at FlightRadar24(I spend more time there than this site- perhaps that’s a good thing) on any given day Flair appears to be plying their trade as its fleet is always moving west to east, north to south and back. No adverse media coverage that I have heard about as of late shouldn’t that say it all, hopefully that trajectory continues.

[Factchkr]

Well… looking at FlightRadar24(I spend more time there than this site- perhaps that’s a good thing) on any given day Flair appears to be plying their trade as its fleet is always moving west to east, north to south and back. No adverse media coverage that I have heard about as of late shouldn’t that say it all, hopefully that trajectory continues.

agree, flair maybe the most successfull low cost airline in canada yet, if they do it right, would then consider investing in them in an ipo. ceo interiewed a month ago on cbc said westjet kinda loss in middle. lets wait and see...

[julcancro]

Not really sure the investment community will be interested in an ipo, particularly because of the lack of good financial track record unfortunately. But of course that could very well improve snd change with time. The verdict is still out.

[Factchkr]

Not really sure the investment community will be interested in an ipo, particularly because of the lack of good financial track record unfortunately. But of course that could very well improve snd change with time. The verdict is still out.

agree, im thinking 3 to 5 years out....ulcc's in U.S now are in trouble, so also need to see how they do in coming years....if ulcc not successful in US then cant be successfull in canada in my opiinon.

[flyinhigh]

With Steve “sales man” Jones out the door them seem to be doing better.

I do think that at around 18-20 tails they could make a go in the ulcc market IF they are smart. An expansion to 50 takes huge money that they clearly do not have and would sink them.

[DanWEC]

You know, by pure coincidence Flair may find itself in a position to be commanding more market presence in another year or two. We're just at the start of a real consumer cost correction for many different markets. The post-pandemic novelty has worn off, and people are realizing that they have to be more diligent with spending- that one time spree can't be maintained as costs have outpaced wages so much since 2021.

This may sound funny, but I've always looked at the volume of used boats and the like- disposable income toys- as an indicator of the labour market and economy, and right now the volume of ads are growing and prices are dropping like stones. Maybe some simple correcting from the overshoot of pandemic pricing, but I think it's still an economic indicator.

Anyways, back to Flair, their problem is making a dime even with full planes, I bet 20 isn't quite break-even, they likely need 40+ to actually reverse the bleed. Whether that will happen, who knows.

[Tbayer2021]

This may sound funny, but I've always looked at the volume of used boats and the like- disposable income toys- as an indicator of the labour market and economy, and right now the volume of ads are growing and prices are dropping like stones. Maybe some simple correcting from the overshoot of pandemic pricing, but I think it's still an economic indicator.

This is definitely an accurate indicator, only thing is that no one formally tracks this. At least not as far as I know. There is also the strip club indicator which is supposed to be a leading indicator of a recession. On a related note, I was recently at a friends gathering and an individual there happened to work at Yorkdale's valet service. He mentioned that it has been pretty dry since the beginning of the year.

[fish4life]

You know, by pure coincidence Flair may find itself in a position to be commanding more market presence in another year or two. We're just at the start of a real consumer cost correction for many different markets. The post-pandemic novelty has worn off, and people are realizing that they have to be more diligent with spending- that one time spree can't be maintained as costs have outpaced wages so much since 2021.

This may sound funny, but I've always looked at the volume of used boats and the like- disposable income toys- as an indicator of the labour market and economy, and right now the volume of ads are growing and prices are dropping like stones. Maybe some simple correcting from the overshoot of pandemic pricing, but I think it's still an economic indicator.

Anyways, back to Flair, their problem is making a dime even with full planes, I bet 20 isn't quite break-even, they likely need 40+ to actually reverse the bleed. Whether that will happen, who knows.

The problem is the lower end of the market that typically would book Flair just doesn’t travel at all when you are in the recessionary environment. Just a look south of the border shows that the ULCC’s are struggling the most and that’s with a cost environment that is better at be the model.

[DanWEC]

I've heard of the ballet index for strip bars, I love that one. Sadly, I'm not sure if it applies as much now as societal norms change. There used to be a strong correlation between recessions and fast food as well- McDonalds always went up in downturns, but for the first time ever it isn't, because they're now ludicrously expensive for garbage food.... hangovers be damned.

I golf almost every day, poorly, and this season started off strong, with a number of tracks actually bumping their prime season prices just a tad. Now they're suddenly tailing off, with tee times opening up everywhere. I'm starting to get discount membership offer emails for 2025, I checked back and hadn't seen any of those for years.
Also, had a conversation yesterday with a marina owner and he'll have spots open next year for the first time in 5 years. A microcosm of economics maybe, but I think there's something to that as well. At least it's good for guys that like toys, that a 20 year old boat isn't going for 100k anymore!

I think with these indicators there's a substantial lag because they're more indicative of people's gradual realization of maintaining their typical lifestyle spending habits. It takes a while for people to notice that their bank account is starting to dwindle more than expected. That car they bought 3 years ago for a premium, they bit the bullet and now thinking about replacing it and realized they have to bite even more of a bullet- again. Now they're out of the market for a while, but that took 3 years. The people that have a meeting with their accountant and realized they have less in their accounts after a normal year of say one vacation and eating out their normal amount, that took a year. Etc.... Not to mention servicing 8% loans for toys or HELOC renovations is holding people back

Fish, totally correct, I suppose it depends how much pressure is on the pocketbook. Whether we'll have a recession here is questionable, we always get to see the crystal ball of the US a few years ahead and adjust accordingly, I think we're just seeing a consumer market correction of the business gouging beginning to stop, combined with the few more years before wages start to catch up.

I dunno, it's noon, which means it's now time for a guilt-free beer by the pool.

[cdnavater]

Oh right, every thread is about Rookie. You've been saying there's a depression-era economic catastrophe around the corner for like 15 years and I'm talking about price softening on boats.

15 years? Really? Didn’t you guys all talk about unlimited pent up travel demand just a few months back? Man that went quiet. How many here own AC stock?

Not 15 years but literally years, if you had said something to the effect, indicators are looking like a correction is coming, could be a while but no, you were quite adamant and if you say t(e same thing for years, eventually you’ll be correct.
That being said, just read an article that residential developers are going insolvent at the same rate or even surpassing the global financial crisis

[cdnavater]

15 years? Really? Didn’t you guys all talk about unlimited pent up travel demand just a few months back? Man that went quiet. How many here own AC stock?

Not 15 years but literally years, if you had said something to the effect, indicators are looking like a correction is coming, could be a while but no, you were quite adamant and if you say t(e same thing for years, eventually you’ll be correct.
That being said, just read an article that residential developers are going insolvent at the same rate or even surpassing the global financial crisis

I am told though we have a housing shortage. So hows that work.

Just like here everyone says pilot jobs are guaranteed path to riches forever cause of travel demand, load up on debt.

Why then are route cuts coming in the US?

I hate debt. Enslaves people. That’s my only consistent advice.

Aren’t you supposed to be an expert, you tell us how that works.
The article cited interest rates and material costs as the main driver, I assume because the costs have gone up more than the price of housing or more importantly, what the market will support, ie; cost more to build than what they can sell for.

[twa22]

15 years? Really? Didn’t you guys all talk about unlimited pent up travel demand just a few months back? Man that went quiet. How many here own AC stock?

Not 15 years but literally years, if you had said something to the effect, indicators are looking like a correction is coming, could be a while but no, you were quite adamant and if you say t(e same thing for years, eventually you’ll be correct.
That being said, just read an article that residential developers are going insolvent at the same rate or even surpassing the global financial crisis

I am told though we have a housing shortage. So hows that work.

Just like here everyone says pilot jobs are guaranteed path to riches forever cause of travel demand, load up on debt.

Why then are route cuts coming in the US?

I hate debt. Enslaves people. That’s my only consistent advice.

A big factor in route cuts and lowered demand isn't because there isn't demand, it's because there is a massive supply chain issue on both Boeing and Airbus fronts. Boeing is pretty obvious with their quality control issues with the MAX and 787s, and Airbus isn't an airbus problem but rather a P&W GTF issue where literally half the 320/321 NEO fleet globally was grounded at some point

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... 20recovery.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/busine ... rcna157034

https://airlineweekly.skift.com/2023/09 ... next-year/

[rookiepilot]

Not 15 years but literally years, if you had said something to the effect, indicators are looking like a correction is coming, could be a while but no, you were quite adamant and if you say t(e same thing for years, eventually you’ll be correct.
That being said, just read an article that residential developers are going insolvent at the same rate or even surpassing the global financial crisis

I am told though we have a housing shortage. So hows that work.

Just like here everyone says pilot jobs are guaranteed path to riches forever cause of travel demand, load up on debt.

Why then are route cuts coming in the US?

I hate debt. Enslaves people. That’s my only consistent advice.

Aren’t you supposed to be an expert, you tell us how that works.
The article cited interest rates and material costs as the main driver, I assume because the costs have gone up more than the price of housing or more importantly, what the market will support, ie; cost more to build than what they can sell for.

Know nothing about housing.

I have no predictions whatsoever, Don’t misquote me, figure it out yourselves or just F/O.

[rookiepilot]

It would be nice to drop Kamala and talk about flair?

Flair is in trouble.

When you advertise for money in the newspaper— you are in trouble.

[rookiepilot]

It would be nice to drop Kamala and talk about flair?

Flair is in trouble.

When you advertise for money in the newspaper— you are in trouble.

You're not wrong at all! Though the thread drift is bigger than normal haha

Back to the thread — Flair is soliciting investment per the FP article— what assets do they actually own to secure an investment against? Aren’t all the planes leased?

[cdnavater]

Flair is in trouble.

When you advertise for money in the newspaper— you are in trouble.

You're not wrong at all! Though the thread drift is bigger than normal haha

Back to the thread — Flair is soliciting investment per the FP article— what assets do they actually own to secure an investment against? Aren’t all the planes leased?

I believe most are leased but I’m fairly certain the owned aircraft have a government lean on them for the back taxes owing, haven’t seen any updates on that situation.
This is usually the end of the airline in question when they start doing 1.00 airfares, the people buying these will be paying the taxes and fees which will come in as revenue but have to be remitted(?30 days?) at some point. My point though, this is desperation and combined with shopping around for investors who might view it less risky now, increases that appearance of desperation!
Buyer be warned, you are rolling the dice on this one!
On a good note, AC still needs nearly 2000 pilots for their plan, no one really knows the plan but that’s what they say they need by end of next year, 7300 pilots from the current 5300.

[rookiepilot]

You're not wrong at all! Though the thread drift is bigger than normal haha

Back to the thread — Flair is soliciting investment per the FP article— what assets do they actually own to secure an investment against? Aren’t all the planes leased?

I believe most are leased but I’m fairly certain the owned aircraft have a government lean on them for the back taxes owing, haven’t seen any updates on that situation.
This is usually the end of the airline in question when they start doing 1.00 airfares, the people buying these will be paying the taxes and fees which will come in as revenue but have to be remitted(?30 days?) at some point. My point though, this is desperation and combined with shopping around for investors who might view it less risky now, increases that appearance of desperation!
Buyer be warned, you are rolling the dice on this one!
On a good note, AC still needs nearly 2000 pilots for their plan, no one really knows the plan but that’s what they say they need by end of next year, 7300 pilots from the current 5300.

You’re wary of this quote from the article? tsk, tsk….

“The competitive environment has changed dramatically for Flair,” he said. “Now the business case for any investor to consider Flair as an investment target is much more compelling.”

[newlygrounded]

You're not wrong at all! Though the thread drift is bigger than normal haha

Back to the thread — Flair is soliciting investment per the FP article— what assets do they actually own to secure an investment against? Aren’t all the planes leased?

I believe most are leased but I’m fairly certain the owned aircraft have a government lean on them for the back taxes owing, haven’t seen any updates on that situation.
This is usually the end of the airline in question when they start doing 1.00 airfares, the people buying these will be paying the taxes and fees which will come in as revenue but have to be remitted(?30 days?) at some point. My point though, this is desperation and combined with shopping around for investors who might view it less risky now, increases that appearance of desperation!
Buyer be warned, you are rolling the dice on this one!
On a good note, AC still needs nearly 2000 pilots for their plan, no one really knows the plan but that’s what they say they need by end of next year, 7300 pilots from the current 5300.

That's not how any of this works... I believe flairs "deal" was released but during the lynx bankruptcy a lot of interesting info came out! Flair doesn't get a penny until the flight goes, even then it's only 50% that day, they get the other 50% a week later. (Why I don't know?)

That way the payment processors aren't on the hook for chargebacks

Flair is in trouble.

When you advertise for money in the newspaper— you are in trouble.

You're not wrong at all! Though the thread drift is bigger than normal haha

Back to the thread — Flair is soliciting investment per the FP article— what assets do they actually own to secure an investment against? Aren’t all the planes leased?

Honestly I have no idea (they might not either lmao) I remember when Lynx went under they had nearly no assets. Pretty much just some equity on spare engines if that

[cdnavater]

Back to the thread — Flair is soliciting investment per the FP article— what assets do they actually own to secure an investment against? Aren’t all the planes leased?

I believe most are leased but I’m fairly certain the owned aircraft have a government lean on them for the back taxes owing, haven’t seen any updates on that situation.
This is usually the end of the airline in question when they start doing 1.00 airfares, the people buying these will be paying the taxes and fees which will come in as revenue but have to be remitted(?30 days?) at some point. My point though, this is desperation and combined with shopping around for investors who might view it less risky now, increases that appearance of desperation!
Buyer be warned, you are rolling the dice on this one!
On a good note, AC still needs nearly 2000 pilots for their plan, no one really knows the plan but that’s what they say they need by end of next year, 7300 pilots from the current 5300.

That's not how any of this works... I believe flairs "deal" was released but during the lynx bankruptcy a lot of interesting info came out! Flair doesn't get a penny until the flight goes, even then it's only 50% that day, they get the other 50% a week later. (Why I don't know?)

That way the payment processors aren't on the hook for chargebacks

You're not wrong at all! Though the thread drift is bigger than normal haha

Back to the thread — Flair is soliciting investment per the FP article— what assets do they actually own to secure an investment against? Aren’t all the planes leased?

Honestly I have no idea (they might not either lmao) I remember when Lynx went under they had nearly no assets. Pretty much just some equity on spare engines if that

I don’t remember that piece of info, that seems a little strange, if a flight is 6 months down the road Flair doesn’t get any of that charge, wow!
No wonder they’re shopping around for 100 million investment, I’m pretty sure forward sales are to pay todays bills, not sure how they are still running!

[newlygrounded]

I believe most are leased but I’m fairly certain the owned aircraft have a government lean on them for the back taxes owing, haven’t seen any updates on that situation.
This is usually the end of the airline in question when they start doing 1.00 airfares, the people buying these will be paying the taxes and fees which will come in as revenue but have to be remitted(?30 days?) at some point. My point though, this is desperation and combined with shopping around for investors who might view it less risky now, increases that appearance of desperation!
Buyer be warned, you are rolling the dice on this one!
On a good note, AC still needs nearly 2000 pilots for their plan, no one really knows the plan but that’s what they say they need by end of next year, 7300 pilots from the current 5300.

That's not how any of this works... I believe flairs "deal" was released but during the lynx bankruptcy a lot of interesting info came out! Flair doesn't get a penny until the flight goes, even then it's only 50% that day, they get the other 50% a week later. (Why I don't know?)

That way the payment processors aren't on the hook for chargebacks

Back to the thread — Flair is soliciting investment per the FP article— what assets do they actually own to secure an investment against? Aren’t all the planes leased?

Honestly I have no idea (they might not either lmao) I remember when Lynx went under they had nearly no assets. Pretty much just some equity on spare engines if that

I don’t remember that piece of info, that seems a little strange, if a flight is 6 months down the road Flair doesn’t get any of that charge, wow!
No wonder they’re shopping around for 100 million investment, I’m pretty sure forward sales are to pay todays bills, not sure how they are still running!

Seems my numbers were for Lynx but I'm assuming flair is the same, they were suing the processor for withholding so I guess they have the same setup.

Elavon Canada Company (“Elavon”) is the Company’s credit card processing company. When
customers booked airline tickets with Lynx Air, in accordance with the processing agreement
between the Company and Elavon, Elavon would release 50% of the ticket price to Lynx Air on
the date of the flight and the other 50% of the ticket price to Lynx Air six days after the flight had
concluded. If a flight was cancelled, Elavon would refund the customer the cost of the ticket.

Source: http://cfcanada.fticonsulting.com/lynxa ... 0Final.pdf

[DanWEC]

My immediate question is why isn't 777 continuing to feed them whatever they need? If there's smoke starting to seep out from them, that isn't good at all. More likely Flair is presciently trying to grab another source before something upstream happens. It would be nice if they could survive with Canadian backing.