Pilots thinking of leaving WJ due to 16 year upgrades

[737lakepilot]

I am a current WJA pilot hoping to see how other WJ pilots
feel with the recently announced 16 year upgrades in YYC? Not a troll, just gauging people’s views to help make my own career decision.

[ozone]

Personally I would just wait and see how this all pans out over the next year. The 16 years is based only on retirements. There is no growth taken into account. Possible but very unlikely. WestJet still has 60 plus aircraft on order.
The merger doesn't really affect the upgrade times. It would have been 16 plus years to upgrade before the merger based solely on retirements.

[Canadaflyer46]

That timeline is based on everyone retiring at 65. Right now that doesn’t happen, and people will continue to join the AR program. WJ doesn’t seem to want to end it.
It also doesn’t take into account fleet growth. This is impossible to predict as the company refuses to discuss it. They will talk about aircraft orders, but remain silent on how many are replacements. They’re also way behind the ball in converting Max10 orders to Max8s, which other airlines are now doing because anyone but a moron can see the 10 will never exist.
They are refusing to discuss future 787 plans. This could greatly affect growth/reductions.
I would also agree with the previous post, that if you’re fairly senior it’s worth waiting around a year. However, for a junior guy it’s still going to be five times longer minimum to get an upgrade at WJ compared to AC. If a left seat is more important than socialized bidding/living in YYC then I’d be getting that resume polished.

[cdnavater]

A bit of a conundrum for the more senior FOs, if you are 6 years or less at WJ, staring down another 10 years to upgrade, sooner than later would be better.
If you wait a year to see what comes and the more junior FOs pull the pin now, when you decide to go, you are going to be junior to those below you that left already and giving up step 8 pay for the new hire pay at AC.
I would think anybody with 7 plus years is not likely to leave, that would be a tough pill to swallow.
I find it interesting that you are coming into the second(?) winter season where WJ aircraft will be operating for Sunwing but no hiring and no new aircraft joining the fleet.
Have you reduced frequency or routes elsewhere to accommodate this or is there a higher utilization versus past winters?

[MaxAuto]

A bit of a conundrum for the more senior FOs, if you are 6 years or less at WJ, staring down another 10 years to upgrade, sooner than later would be better.
If you wait a year to see what comes and the more junior FOs pull the pin now, when you decide to go, you are going to be junior to those below you that left already and giving up step 8 pay for the new hire pay at AC.
I would think anybody with 7 plus years is not likely to leave, that would be a tough pill to swallow.
I find it interesting that you are coming into the second(?) winter season where WJ aircraft will be operating for Sunwing but no hiring and no new aircraft joining the fleet.
Have you reduced frequency or routes elsewhere to accommodate this or is there a higher utilization versus past winters?

Original it was supposed to be 5 wet lease aircraft to SW. SW ask for an additional 2, but now its only 4 according to an email we received.

I'm guessing higher utilization of aircraft.

[MaxAuto]

If you're young and junior, let everyone else sell their shares in seniority, and play the long game.

If you're older and junior, SELL SELL SELL and buy AC quickly.

I think when the dust settles, wide body expansion will continue. If flairs, goes under westjet will go after those planes leases and routes.

What has been the plan for the -700?

[cdnavater]

A bit of a conundrum for the more senior FOs, if you are 6 years or less at WJ, staring down another 10 years to upgrade, sooner than later would be better.
If you wait a year to see what comes and the more junior FOs pull the pin now, when you decide to go, you are going to be junior to those below you that left already and giving up step 8 pay for the new hire pay at AC.
I would think anybody with 7 plus years is not likely to leave, that would be a tough pill to swallow.
I find it interesting that you are coming into the second(?) winter season where WJ aircraft will be operating for Sunwing but no hiring and no new aircraft joining the fleet.
Have you reduced frequency or routes elsewhere to accommodate this or is there a higher utilization versus past winters?

Original it was supposed to be 5 wet lease aircraft to SW. SW ask for an additional 2, but now its only 4 according to an email we received.

I'm guessing higher utilization of aircraft.

Wow, ok, that is huge given Sunwing used to bring in an extra 20ish aircraft for the winter!

[MaxAuto]

A bit of a conundrum for the more senior FOs, if you are 6 years or less at WJ, staring down another 10 years to upgrade, sooner than later would be better.
If you wait a year to see what comes and the more junior FOs pull the pin now, when you decide to go, you are going to be junior to those below you that left already and giving up step 8 pay for the new hire pay at AC.
I would think anybody with 7 plus years is not likely to leave, that would be a tough pill to swallow.
I find it interesting that you are coming into the second(?) winter season where WJ aircraft will be operating for Sunwing but no hiring and no new aircraft joining the fleet.
Have you reduced frequency or routes elsewhere to accommodate this or is there a higher utilization versus past winters?

Original it was supposed to be 5 wet lease aircraft to SW. SW ask for an additional 2, but now its only 4 according to an email we received.

I'm guessing higher utilization of aircraft.

Wow, ok, that is huge given Sunwing used to bring in an extra 20ish aircraft for the winter!

Those are wet leases from WestJet to be clear. We are still getting about 6 damp leases from Smartwings and 10 dry lease from Smartwings (maybe a few TUI like last year).

So about 38 aircraft total this season.

[pelmet]

How many upgrades per year in YYZ are expected?

[Canadaflyer46]

How many upgrades per year in YYZ are expected?

How many upgrades per year in YYZ are expected?

The current talk is a reduction bid for YYZ coming for Nov 1st 2025 after the 12 months freeze has expired. WestJet runs things lean. Many junior YYZ captains I know are expecting to downgrade or have to commute to YWG/YEG which are the junior bases for captains. ‘Junior’ still being 10 years seniority to be left seat there currently.

[lowoleo22]

What is the real reason that the upgrade times are so long? Is no one retiring? Have they hired too many pilots?

[fish4life]

What is the real reason that the upgrade times are so long? Is no one retiring? Have they hired too many pilots?

Essentially a single fleet type (very few WB) combined with no seniority bidding leads to longer upgrade times because it’s a more desirable position.

I don’t know how far down the list as a percentage upgrades go at WJ but I can guarantee at AC ours go much further down because junior NB cpt is a horrible lifestyle. Lots of guys will wait to be able to hold a block / hold some weekends off to bid left seat. Some will just stay WB FO and work way less days while not making much less than a NB cpt.

[Oleo 4]

My .02 cents or should I say $2.00 with JT Inflation.

Change has been a constant at WestJet for my entire career, as any human we fear change. As a pilot who calculates risk and practices mitigation strategies everyday. We calculate our career paths from hour 1 trying to make the best decisions to start for ourselves, then over time our wife/husband, and then our kids. Our eyes get bigger with the idea of financial independence and the ability to provide for our families unlike our parents could for us. I understand the few who need to have the 4th stripe on their shoulders, its a milestone and a long career goal that should be celebrated. However, I've also seen families torn apart with career ambition stemming from commuting, poor financial decisions, and loss of medicals.

I'm not writing this trying to appeal for people to stay at any company, given geographic location, demographic, and marital status - we have each had to make our own decisions. The Greek poet Ovid said "The harvest is always richer in another man's field," We've amended that to the grass is greener. Reach out and talk to people who have deviated from their original flight plan and get a broad spectrum of knowledge. I can tell you that some who have moved on have regretted their decision. Clarity was only given to them with hindsight. Making a decision to move on based on upgrade times right now is premature.

As pilots we are not privy to the decisions that are made everyday in the office at 9 am then altered again in the afternoon changing the business model/plan and subsequent 1, 5, and 10 year projections. As an airline if we are not changing, we are not growing. If we do not continue to evolve we will cease to exist. Many factors can change that upgrade time: addition of 3-6 widebodies (150-300 pilots), AR program termination (40-70 pilots over the next two years), IPO, additional aircraft, return of leased aircraft, market fluctuations, network growth and decline, load factors, and mergers.

When the Sunwing purchase was announced in 2022 they had on that date 542 pilots, integrating now into WestJet is sub 500. If the first two items I listed above took place it would net us 100+ pilots on the narrow body with 18 additional aircraft. Upgrade times would fall. I'm not here to create any new speculation or rumour - above is line chatter right now and I'm not an office guy with any knowledge. Just a guy on a soap box trying to impart wisdom over emotion.

What is now, will not be the same in a year!

O

[cdnavater]

How many upgrades per year in YYZ are expected?

How many upgrades per year in YYZ are expected?

The current talk is a reduction bid for YYZ coming for Nov 1st 2025 after the 12 months freeze has expired. WestJet runs things lean. Many junior YYZ captains I know are expecting to downgrade or have to commute to YWG/YEG which are the junior bases for captains. ‘Junior’ still being 10 years seniority to be left seat there currently.

Just curious, does the WJ CBA not have a “no bump and flush” provision?
The reason I ask, if you are reduced out of your seat, there typically needs to be a vacancy to bump into, if no vacancy exists then there is nowhere to go but down!
A YYZ Captain cannot bump out(flush) a Junior Captain at another base! Now, if there is a vacancy to bump in to, then they push the more junior Captains to the bottom but again not out.

[hithere]

"addition of 3-6 widebodies (150-300 pilots)"
How would the addition of 6 widebodies result in 300 vacancies? That is some crazy pilot/fin ratio
"AR program termination (40-70 pilots over the next two years)" -Jazz just implemented an AR program to avoid the inevitable civil rights case that they would lose. I find it extremely unlikely that, once implemented, an AR program could ever be terminated. I think you should actually count on this program sticking around long term.

[cdnavater]

"addition of 3-6 widebodies (150-300 pilots)"
How would the addition of 6 widebodies result in 300 vacancies? That is some crazy pilot/fin ratio
"AR program termination (40-70 pilots over the next two years)" -Jazz just implemented an AR program to avoid the inevitable civil rights case that they would lose. I find it extremely unlikely that, once implemented, an AR program could ever be terminated. I think you should actually count on this program sticking around long term.

typically 12 pilots per narrowbody, widebody probably closer to 16-18 with augment. So best case scenario, 6 additional is 108 pilot jobs.
I also agree, getting rid of the AR program is extremely unlikely and it would be met with a civil rights suit

[Oleo 4]

"addition of 3-6 widebodies (150-300 pilots)"
How would the addition of 6 widebodies result in 300 vacancies? That is some crazy pilot/fin ratio
"AR program termination (40-70 pilots over the next two years)" -Jazz just implemented an AR program to avoid the inevitable civil rights case that they would lose. I find it extremely unlikely that, once implemented, an AR program could ever be terminated. I think you should actually count on this program sticking around long term.

Based on assumption and rounding up given current 7 tails and the number of pilots on the list without looking at the roster given most pilots on that list get the max vacation allotment per year. After looking at the roster we have currently 167 CA and 118 FO, not all pilots are active and includes training pilot responsibilities and management. Network planning changes crew requirements for augmentation. Currently only 4 pilots required on a training flight. Captains can be assigned as an augment or pick up.

"addition of 3-6 widebodies (150-300 pilots)"
How would the addition of 6 widebodies result in 300 vacancies? That is some crazy pilot/fin ratio
"AR program termination (40-70 pilots over the next two years)" -Jazz just implemented an AR program to avoid the inevitable civil rights case that they would lose. I find it extremely unlikely that, once implemented, an AR program could ever be terminated. I think you should actually count on this program sticking around long term.

typically 12 pilots per narrowbody, widebody probably closer to 16-18 with augment. So best case scenario, 6 additional is 108 pilot jobs.
I also agree, getting rid of the AR program is extremely unlikely and it would be met with a civil rights suit

I think you're missing the point of the post, we do not have finite numbers and the examples I gave were napkin math based on assumptions that present a different reality than the 16 year upgrade doom and gloom. You can do the math with what I listed above. The point is many variables including retirements as we had one yesterday can change those numbers and that 16 years is not going to be the number in a year from now.

For those who are on property now know that the AR program is under review as their is a cost associated with it. At some point the cost and allocated resources becomes significant enough to have that conversation, yes even in court if required. Their is still a pilot shortage in Canada, not enough commercial licenses being issued to keep up with demand. By Jazz creating an AR program they extend the longevity of a career and minimize the shortfall on the lack of new hires and an experience gap upgrading Captains (read current Encore dilemma). WestJet is now currently overstaffed in the East.

O

[cdnavater]

"addition of 3-6 widebodies (150-300 pilots)"
How would the addition of 6 widebodies result in 300 vacancies? That is some crazy pilot/fin ratio
"AR program termination (40-70 pilots over the next two years)" -Jazz just implemented an AR program to avoid the inevitable civil rights case that they would lose. I find it extremely unlikely that, once implemented, an AR program could ever be terminated. I think you should actually count on this program sticking around long term.

Based on assumption and rounding up given current 7 tails and the number of pilots on the list without looking at the roster given most pilots on that list get the max vacation allotment per year. After looking at the roster we have currently 167 CA and 118 FO, not all pilots are active and includes training pilot responsibilities and management. Network planning changes crew requirements for augmentation. Currently only 4 pilots required on a training flight. Captains can be assigned as an augment or pick up.

"addition of 3-6 widebodies (150-300 pilots)"
How would the addition of 6 widebodies result in 300 vacancies? That is some crazy pilot/fin ratio
"AR program termination (40-70 pilots over the next two years)" -Jazz just implemented an AR program to avoid the inevitable civil rights case that they would lose. I find it extremely unlikely that, once implemented, an AR program could ever be terminated. I think you should actually count on this program sticking around long term.

typically 12 pilots per narrowbody, widebody probably closer to 16-18 with augment. So best case scenario, 6 additional is 108 pilot jobs.
I also agree, getting rid of the AR program is extremely unlikely and it would be met with a civil rights suit

I think you're missing the point of the post, we do not have finite numbers and the examples I gave were napkin math based on assumptions that present a different reality than the 16 year upgrade doom and gloom. You can do the math with what I listed above. The point is many variables including retirements as we had one yesterday can change those numbers and that 16 years is not going to be the number in a year from now.

For those who are on property now know that the AR program is under review as their is a cost associated with it. At some point the cost and allocated resources becomes significant enough to have that conversation, yes even in court if required. Their is still a pilot shortage in Canada, not enough commercial licenses being issued to keep up with demand. By Jazz creating an AR program they extend the longevity of a career and minimize the shortfall on the lack of new hires and an experience gap upgrading Captains (read current Encore dilemma). WestJet is now currently overstaffed in the East.

O

Sure, all good!
Regarding the Jazz AR program, it is in need of some type of policy change, they don’t create pairings that an AR pilot can bid on separately, so what happens is an AR pilot ends up displacing a pilot already assigned to the flying in order to remain current, so the displaced Captain is being paid to sit at home.
Believe all of our AR pilots join the training department, so we do get some use out of them but not as an extra Captain.

[JBI]

A couple comments responding to a few previous posts.

If there is a "Reduction bid without layoffs" then WJ pilots have the ability to bump more junior pilots out of seat or base. That's generally what is expected to occur sometime after Nov 1, 2025.

The AR program is pretty much up to the company to decide whether to keep (and build separate schedules/flight plans) or to take the position that keeping pilots over 65 on the 737 creates "undue hardship". If the company is smart, if they do decide to remove the AR program, they'll work with the Union to negotiate a pay-out of some sort and in exchange for taking said pay-out, pilots agree not to pursue any legal or Human Rights action. However, at the end of the day, getting rid of or keeping the AR program is solely up to the company.

The title "16 year upgrades" is a bit misleading. It's not really an accurate projection - it was based on no growth and retirements only. I don't think that's a realistic situation. Either growth or, unfortunately, contraction, are more likely in my opinion.

That being said, any pilot senior to me should definitely leave for better opportunities (kidding... mostly )

[MaxAuto]

A couple comments responding to a few previous posts.

If there is a "Reduction bid without layoffs" then WJ pilots have the ability to bump more junior pilots out of seat or base. That's generally what is expected to occur sometime after Nov 1, 2025.

The AR program is pretty much up to the company to decide whether to keep (and build separate schedules/flight plans) or to take the position that keeping pilots over 65 on the 737 creates "undue hardship". If the company is smart, if they do decide to remove the AR program, they'll work with the Union to negotiate a pay-out of some sort and in exchange for taking said pay-out, pilots agree not to pursue any legal or Human Rights action. However, at the end of the day, getting rid of or keeping the AR program is solely up to the company.

The title "16 year upgrades" is a bit misleading. It's not really an accurate projection - it was based on no growth and retirements only. I don't think that's a realistic situation. Either growth or, unfortunately, contraction, are more likely in my opinion.

That being said, any pilot senior to me should definitely leave for better opportunities (kidding... mostly )

How many lower to mid seniority captains do you think are in YYZ waiting to voluntary bid for vacancies in YYC and YVR considering it's the third most senior base? Or will most of the position if any be taken up by senior YYC and YVR FOs holding out for upgrade only in their base as first and only priority. What's you observation if you don't mind sharing?

[N181CS]

If you were not a WG pilot why did you choose Westjet in the first place? As it has been pointed out the merger had no real effect on upgrades. Sunwing does not add a large number of pilots to the western bases and the reason they would have those bases is because they have the flying to allow it. They are still bringing in foreign planes this winter, some with crews. If WS reduces flights from the east they will just open up opportunity to a Sunwing 2.0. Why did they buy sunwing? Seems like a growth plan. They could have just hired 500 guys over the past 2 years rather then buy an OC and a Vacation package call centre and website that was attached to 500 pilots. In 2025 they will need to find an additional 20 fins unless they keep doing the borrow a plane and maybe pilots plan.

[hithere]

How is the company going to claim that the AR program that they had in place for years now is suddenly "undue hardship"? Furthermore for the most part these AR guys are not looking for money, they are just bored guys with no hobbies.

[tbaylx]

How is the company going to claim that the AR program that they had in place for years now is suddenly "undue hardship"? Furthermore for the most part these AR guys are not looking for money, they are just bored guys with no hobbies.

Air Canada made the same argument successfully. If Westjet's route network has developed where a greater percentage of their flying is transborder and prohibits over 65 pilots then they'll have a very solid argument that it presents undue hardship and they are not obligated to continue with the program.

Gedalof used a 5% determination in his ruling upholding age 65 mandatory retirement for Air Canada pilots, which Westjet almost certainly meets.

Arbitrator Eli Gedalof said it was unreasonable to keep senior pilots employed even though there is no mandated retirement age under the Aeronautics Act.

“Air Canada cannot reasonably accommodate pilots flying past the International Civil Aviation Organization limit of age 65 without undue hardship,” wrote Gedalof.

The airline noted the U.S. has adopted the COA rule of retirement at 65 that was introduced in 2014.

“Of the flight routes flown by Air Canada in 2018 all of them either overflew U.S. airspace or required a U.S. alternate airport more than 5%of the time,” wrote Gedalof.

“In other words, a pilot past the age of 65 would have to be prohibited from flying that route at least 5% of the time and replaced by another pilot.”

[JBI]

How is the company going to claim that the AR program that they had in place for years now is suddenly "undue hardship"? Furthermore for the most part these AR guys are not looking for money, they are just bored guys with no hobbies.

Depends on the numbers. If there are 30-40 AR pilots, it would be very hard for the company to claim "undue hardship", but if there were 100-200, then it would be significantly more likely to be successful. Especially with the merger, there will be a higher percentage of trans-border / international flights (or flights where it is most efficient to fly over the US or have a US alternate).

In the recent Air Canada decision on Age 65, Arbitrator Gedalof concluded that, for Air Canada and the specific information they provided in the Arbitration, if 5% of the time flights needed to fly over US airspace or use a US airport as an alternate, that was undue hardship for the airline. In my opinion that's a pretty low threshold.

As I've said, if the company is smart, prior to getting to the point where it needs to go to a grievance or a Human Rights Complaint, it will come up with a retirement payout option.

And to be clear, I've really enjoyed flying with most of the AR guys and don't have an opinion for or against, just outlining the general Human Rights law and background.

[JBI]

How many lower to mid seniority captains do you think are in YYZ waiting to voluntary bid for vacancies in YYC and YVR considering it's the third most senior base? Or will most of the position if any be taken up by senior YYC and YVR FOs holding out for upgrade only in their base as first and only priority. What's you observation if you don't mind sharing?

I don't think there are quite as many as there used to be. WIth YWG and YEG opening, those bases are almost as junior as YYZ (sometimes more depending on the bid) so those pilots that want to be in YYC will usually bid them over YYZ. That being said, I'm sure for a few reasons there are some. It will also remain to be seen what will happen with the YUL base. It will be kept open, but no one is sure how big it will be. I know there are a few WJ pilots who commute from YUL. At the same time, it's unknown how many YQB Sunwing Captains who will be transferred to YUL would choose to commute.