So when is Peak Leverage?!
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PeakLeverage
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So when is Peak Leverage?!
Air Transat issued strike notice and got better starting pay, 100% deadhead, vacation credit of 4.5 hrs, long call reserve, open time 1.5x pay, 4.5 hrs for reporting, better monthly guarantee all while not giving away their profit sharing.
All while being barely profitable and negotiating during "economic uncertainty".
I am so deeply confused...when is "Peak Leverage"? I thought it was before you called a strike and before the operation started winding down?! And I thought issuing strike notice was pointless? Don't you just take the "last offer"?!
All while being barely profitable and negotiating during "economic uncertainty".
I am so deeply confused...when is "Peak Leverage"? I thought it was before you called a strike and before the operation started winding down?! And I thought issuing strike notice was pointless? Don't you just take the "last offer"?!
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3rdWorldClassPilot
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
A broke ass Leisure carrier securing major gains over a Legacy Carrier.
That is embarrassing.
Ouch
That is embarrassing.
Ouch
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
It's quite impressive what an employee group can accomplish when it's clear to Management that the Government won't instantly invoke s.107 and send employees back to work in the event of a strike.
Congrats to the TS pilots on what seems like a great step forward!
Congrats to the TS pilots on what seems like a great step forward!
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
It may be an apples vs oranges comparison.
Yes, it sounds like meaningful gains were made by the TS pilots in bargaining. Important to see the totality of their CBA (WAWCON/pension/benefits/premiums) to validly compare to the AC CBA.
However, reaching the new agreement does not cure or bring an end to the structural financial problems at TRZ. The cost of a 4 day strike by AC flight attendants was estimated at $430M in forfeit revenue ($375M in forfeit EBITA). With forecast 2025 annual revenue of $22B+ and EBITA of $3B, the short lived shutdown while significant was virtually insignificant in affecting the solvency or financial performance in either the short or medium term (estimated increased FA expense was just $140M over 4 years). And the AC pilot contract incurred an estimated $1.9B in increased expense for AC over 4 years.
Contrast this to a TS shutdown. Almost every lost revenue dollar would have translated in to a dollar operating loss. And while it is not uncommon to see operating losses that have non-cash components (i.e. depreciation), it is likely the entire cost of a shutdown would manifest in the already fragile bottom line. And then there are debt covenants - would a shutdown have affected cash on hand triggering debt recall or cancellation of credit lines?
Instead, TS chose to settle (avoid strike) and attempt to live with the financial consequences. Once all details are out and the corporation reports the forward looking financial impact of the new CBA (when ratified), analysts will update their earnings (loss) performance at TRZ. It will not be flattering.
The bottom line is that there remains another shoe to drop at TRZ. That is not the case at AC. Congratulations to the TS pilots for sticking to the mantra that airlines compete, not pilots.
Yes, it sounds like meaningful gains were made by the TS pilots in bargaining. Important to see the totality of their CBA (WAWCON/pension/benefits/premiums) to validly compare to the AC CBA.
However, reaching the new agreement does not cure or bring an end to the structural financial problems at TRZ. The cost of a 4 day strike by AC flight attendants was estimated at $430M in forfeit revenue ($375M in forfeit EBITA). With forecast 2025 annual revenue of $22B+ and EBITA of $3B, the short lived shutdown while significant was virtually insignificant in affecting the solvency or financial performance in either the short or medium term (estimated increased FA expense was just $140M over 4 years). And the AC pilot contract incurred an estimated $1.9B in increased expense for AC over 4 years.
Contrast this to a TS shutdown. Almost every lost revenue dollar would have translated in to a dollar operating loss. And while it is not uncommon to see operating losses that have non-cash components (i.e. depreciation), it is likely the entire cost of a shutdown would manifest in the already fragile bottom line. And then there are debt covenants - would a shutdown have affected cash on hand triggering debt recall or cancellation of credit lines?
Instead, TS chose to settle (avoid strike) and attempt to live with the financial consequences. Once all details are out and the corporation reports the forward looking financial impact of the new CBA (when ratified), analysts will update their earnings (loss) performance at TRZ. It will not be flattering.
The bottom line is that there remains another shoe to drop at TRZ. That is not the case at AC. Congratulations to the TS pilots for sticking to the mantra that airlines compete, not pilots.
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3rdWorldClassPilot
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
This aged like milk left on a porch during peak Alabama summer.rudder wrote: ↑Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:31 amNot sure what a “vendor dependant” contract means.
I too hope for a successful outcome for the TS pilots, but I don’t see a whole lot of leverage. TRZ is not a financially healthy enterprise. Cash flow problems largely driven by significant balance sheet problems. Add on top of that dysfunction at the board level. Not a great bargaining environment when seeking meaningful gains.
AC Pilots need to stop making excuses for under valuing themselves. Just pull up your big boy pants.
Well done Air Transat pilot group
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Bingo Fuel
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
In another post in a thread on the TS board, I expressed that management has two choices - door A (strike) or door B (settle). Both had meaningful financial consequences. Management chose door B. It is not the end of the story, it is just a chapter. Let’s see how well this CBA ages.3rdWorldClassPilot wrote: ↑Thu Dec 11, 2025 8:52 amThis aged like milk left on a porch during peak Alabama summer.rudder wrote: ↑Sat Dec 06, 2025 8:31 amNot sure what a “vendor dependant” contract means.
I too hope for a successful outcome for the TS pilots, but I don’t see a whole lot of leverage. TRZ is not a financially healthy enterprise. Cash flow problems largely driven by significant balance sheet problems. Add on top of that dysfunction at the board level. Not a great bargaining environment when seeking meaningful gains.
AC Pilots need to stop making excuses for under valuing themselves. Just pull up your big boy pants.
Well done Air Transat pilot group![]()
As for AC, they chose $$ over QOL. They remain the highest paid in Canada (at top of scale) with arguably some of the worst scheduling rules resulting in marginal QOL for a large amount of the pilot population.
Hopefully AC will be able to mirror some of the TS QOL benchmarks in the next round.
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
Still too complicated to understand for the duplicate accounts.
Happy the Transat pilots could get some good upgrades in this deal! Makes pattern bargaining a lot easier when three or four companies do it together.
There's still work to be done on this deal, and they'll have an easier time getting those gains because of the WJ and AC deals. And WJ and AC will have an easier time in their upcoming negots because to the AT deal.
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
Some good gains yes but the fact Porter is exempt from
Scope would be very concerning to me as an AT pilot. At the very least they should have been limited to no more than the current ratio of flying or scope any Porter flying to jets with a MTOW / seat capacity of the E2.
I’ve just seen the exec summary so if the language has this I stand corrected but as I saw it nothing would prevent Porter from buying 321’s and doing AT flying.
Scope would be very concerning to me as an AT pilot. At the very least they should have been limited to no more than the current ratio of flying or scope any Porter flying to jets with a MTOW / seat capacity of the E2.
I’ve just seen the exec summary so if the language has this I stand corrected but as I saw it nothing would prevent Porter from buying 321’s and doing AT flying.
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
Did you read it because it is pretty clear...fish4life wrote: ↑Thu Dec 11, 2025 10:49 am Some good gains yes but the fact Porter is exempt from
Scope would be very concerning to me as an AT pilot. At the very least they should have been limited to no more than the current ratio of flying or scope any Porter flying to jets with a MTOW / seat capacity of the E2.
I’ve just seen the exec summary so if the language has this I stand corrected but as I saw it nothing would prevent Porter from buying 321’s and doing AT flying.
1.1.4 We own all the flying.
Pretty solid Scope
I honestly don't understand how Leisure Carriers and Westjet has many quality of life improvements over Air Canada pilots. Even with Pattern Bargaining, this Air Canada MEC couldn't secure the gains WestJet had. Rather brutal performance for AC ALPA.
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Tbayer2021
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
bEcAuSe YoU gEt To FlY tHe FlAg!!!!A310Heavy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 11, 2025 3:32 pmDid you read it because it is pretty clear...fish4life wrote: ↑Thu Dec 11, 2025 10:49 am Some good gains yes but the fact Porter is exempt from
Scope would be very concerning to me as an AT pilot. At the very least they should have been limited to no more than the current ratio of flying or scope any Porter flying to jets with a MTOW / seat capacity of the E2.
I’ve just seen the exec summary so if the language has this I stand corrected but as I saw it nothing would prevent Porter from buying 321’s and doing AT flying.
1.1.4 We own all the flying.
Pretty solid Scope
I honestly don't understand how Leisure Carriers and Westjet has many quality of life improvements over Air Canada pilots. Even with Pattern Bargaining, this Air Canada MEC couldn't secure the gains WestJet had. Rather brutal performance for AC ALPA.
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
In my limited dealing with the current leadership they have come across as very pro-company while the pilots that are paying lot of money for their representation are thought of as kind of an annoyance. I'd like the opportunity to clean house.
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
A house cleaning is desperately needed otherwise it will be a practice of insanity...having the same people but expecting different results.
My YUL ALPA leadership literally has beers with management while doing next to nothing. Pretty useless. I fully expect the AC Contract to be worse than WJ & Transat unless there's is a total flush of some serious turds. YYZ could use some help too....
- Daniel Cooper
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
Agreed about Toronto. How do we do it? When is the next vote?
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
Yes I did read and I also read thisA310Heavy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 11, 2025 3:32 pmDid you read it because it is pretty clear...fish4life wrote: ↑Thu Dec 11, 2025 10:49 am Some good gains yes but the fact Porter is exempt from
Scope would be very concerning to me as an AT pilot. At the very least they should have been limited to no more than the current ratio of flying or scope any Porter flying to jets with a MTOW / seat capacity of the E2.
I’ve just seen the exec summary so if the language has this I stand corrected but as I saw it nothing would prevent Porter from buying 321’s and doing AT flying.
1.1.4 We own all the flying.
Pretty solid Scope
I honestly don't understand how Leisure Carriers and Westjet has many quality of life improvements over Air Canada pilots. Even with Pattern Bargaining, this Air Canada MEC couldn't secure the gains WestJet had. Rather brutal performance for AC ALPA.
1.6 Porter is exempted from scope provisions as JV was signed prior to this CA.
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
Just genuinely wondering...fish4life wrote: ↑Thu Dec 11, 2025 7:41 pmYes I did read and I also read thisA310Heavy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 11, 2025 3:32 pmDid you read it because it is pretty clear...fish4life wrote: ↑Thu Dec 11, 2025 10:49 am Some good gains yes but the fact Porter is exempt from
Scope would be very concerning to me as an AT pilot. At the very least they should have been limited to no more than the current ratio of flying or scope any Porter flying to jets with a MTOW / seat capacity of the E2.
I’ve just seen the exec summary so if the language has this I stand corrected but as I saw it nothing would prevent Porter from buying 321’s and doing AT flying.
1.1.4 We own all the flying.
Pretty solid Scope
I honestly don't understand how Leisure Carriers and Westjet has many quality of life improvements over Air Canada pilots. Even with Pattern Bargaining, this Air Canada MEC couldn't secure the gains WestJet had. Rather brutal performance for AC ALPA.
1.6 Porter is exempted from scope provisions as JV was signed prior to this CA.
Without the scope towards PD, what could be possible outcome?
They seem to hanging out no problem with more potentials to come in their relationship.
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goingnowherefast
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
My guess is management hung onto the Porter JV pretty tight, and wasn't worth the bargaining efforts. It likely wasn't a fight they would have won anyway.
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
The contract between PD and TS was an insurmountable obstacle. The rest of the scope is supposed to be solid. Somewhere between the Delta and WestJet scopes in protection.goingnowherefast wrote: ↑Thu Dec 18, 2025 12:37 pm My guess is management hung onto the Porter JV pretty tight, and wasn't worth the bargaining efforts. It likely wasn't a fight they would have won anyway.
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
Any idea what the wording is for the PD/TS joint venture, any aircraft restrictions?TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 18, 2025 9:32 pmThe contract between PD and TS was an insurmountable obstacle. The rest of the scope is supposed to be solid. Somewhere between the Delta and WestJet scopes in protection.goingnowherefast wrote: ↑Thu Dec 18, 2025 12:37 pm My guess is management hung onto the Porter JV pretty tight, and wasn't worth the bargaining efforts. It likely wasn't a fight they would have won anyway.
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
Haven't seen the language yet, possibly out today. It's unrestricted thru the scope, only in what TS-PD have negotiated. We were told the are some restrictions thru the competition bureau if one party went "wild".cdnavater wrote: ↑Thu Dec 18, 2025 9:49 pmAny idea what the wording is for the PD/TS joint venture, any aircraft restrictions?TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 18, 2025 9:32 pmThe contract between PD and TS was an insurmountable obstacle. The rest of the scope is supposed to be solid. Somewhere between the Delta and WestJet scopes in protection.goingnowherefast wrote: ↑Thu Dec 18, 2025 12:37 pm My guess is management hung onto the Porter JV pretty tight, and wasn't worth the bargaining efforts. It likely wasn't a fight they would have won anyway.
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
The problem is that it would be up to the airline to challenge it, we experienced that with the Jazz/AC agreement. PAL was a complete violation but Jazz didn’t challenge it.TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 19, 2025 6:46 amHaven't seen the language yet, possibly out today. It's unrestricted thru the scope, only in what TS-PD have negotiated. We were told the are some restrictions thru the competition bureau if one party went "wild".cdnavater wrote: ↑Thu Dec 18, 2025 9:49 pmAny idea what the wording is for the PD/TS joint venture, any aircraft restrictions?TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 18, 2025 9:32 pm
The contract between PD and TS was an insurmountable obstacle. The rest of the scope is supposed to be solid. Somewhere between the Delta and WestJet scopes in protection.
Hopefully this is not the situation for you guys, I noticed this morning Transat posted a net loss for the fourth quarter of 12.5 mil, I fully expected them to post a profit after getting an agreement with your group, ie; they were just telling you “we’re losing money”
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Tbayer2021
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
cdnavater wrote: ↑Fri Dec 19, 2025 8:10 amThe problem is that it would be up to the airline to challenge it, we experienced that with the Jazz/AC agreement. PAL was a complete violation but Jazz didn’t challenge it.TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 19, 2025 6:46 amHaven't seen the language yet, possibly out today. It's unrestricted thru the scope, only in what TS-PD have negotiated. We were told the are some restrictions thru the competition bureau if one party went "wild".
Hopefully this is not the situation for you guys, I noticed this morning Transat posted a net loss for the fourth quarter of 12.5 mil, I fully expected them to post a profit after getting an agreement with your group, ie; they were just telling you “we’re losing money”
I would put my money on there being more than enough legal precedent to support the company's side if it went to arbitration, given that it was signed quite a while before the TA.
I also saw about the loss but they turned a 240M profit for the whole year? TS is quite the case study because I believe they've lost more money than they have ever made. Its mostly red quarters with a very light sprinkling of black. Yet somehow, they're still around and have expanded throughout all those negative years. There has to be something else at play here. Creative accounting? The Quebec factor? Combination of both? Something else? Yes, they got a huge chunk of the covid bailout forgiven, but they weren't exactly a financially healthy company before covid.
This is why pilots should never concern themselves with the financial health of the company when it comes to bargaining. Playing nice and taking less than you are worth will not save the company if its headed to bankruptcy/closure. Similarly, getting paid your worth will not drive the company to bankruptcy either. If TS ends up there down the line, it won't be due to the latest pilot contract. Yet Im sure that won't stop many on these forums from claiming otherwise.
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
That was AC going with a third party, not sure how that could apply to us? Scope stops TS from starting another airline and any partner growth of our flying has to be met at least 100%.cdnavater wrote: ↑Fri Dec 19, 2025 8:10 amThe problem is that it would be up to the airline to challenge it, we experienced that with the Jazz/AC agreement. PAL was a complete violation but Jazz didn’t challenge it.TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 19, 2025 6:46 amHaven't seen the language yet, possibly out today. It's unrestricted thru the scope, only in what TS-PD have negotiated. We were told the are some restrictions thru the competition bureau if one party went "wild".
Hopefully this is not the situation for you guys, I noticed this morning Transat posted a net loss for the fourth quarter of 12.5 mil, I fully expected them to post a profit after getting an agreement with your group, ie; they were just telling you “we’re losing money”
They posted a Q4 loss but a net profit for the year. Word is that once they started parking aircraft things picked up really fast at the table.
Re: So when is Peak Leverage?!
I only made the comparison because Jazz and AC agreed that Jazz would be the only tier II operator for AC until 2025, when AC violated that, Jazz did nothing to challenge it.TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 19, 2025 8:55 amThat was AC going with a third party, not sure how that could apply to us? Scope stops TS from starting another airline and any partner growth of our flying has to be met at least 100%.cdnavater wrote: ↑Fri Dec 19, 2025 8:10 amThe problem is that it would be up to the airline to challenge it, we experienced that with the Jazz/AC agreement. PAL was a complete violation but Jazz didn’t challenge it.TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 19, 2025 6:46 am
Haven't seen the language yet, possibly out today. It's unrestricted thru the scope, only in what TS-PD have negotiated. We were told the are some restrictions thru the competition bureau if one party went "wild".
Hopefully this is not the situation for you guys, I noticed this morning Transat posted a net loss for the fourth quarter of 12.5 mil, I fully expected them to post a profit after getting an agreement with your group, ie; they were just telling you “we’re losing money”
They posted a Q4 loss but a net profit for the year. Word is that once they started parking aircraft things picked up really fast at the table.
So, if Porter bought a bunch of 321s and Transat didn’t challenge it, what can the pilots do?

