How are the troubles in the Middle East affecting Canadian airlines?

Emirates is operating near emptry flights. Any major issues for Canadians? Fuel price could have disastrous economic consequences, any other airline specific threats out there?

You have already stated the obvious, increased fuel prices. That will get passed down to the consumer level. Keep in mind that these increased fuel prices will have an impact on all consumer goods. You may see reduced travel demand as costs soar. A long and protracted war will have a disastrous effect on the global economy. Your worse case scenario is world global economic depression. Markets will tank, mass layoffs and bankruptcies.

The so called "genious" at the Oval Office who has bankrupted 6 businesses in the past, including an effing CASINO will get to go down as the guy who managed to bankrupt the world economy.

How the Iran War will cause a global economic crisis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPhV5bc8d6Q

Let's not forget that more areas of the World are increasingly "no fly" zones.

Even in 'safe' airspace GPS jamming and spoofing are serious issues. I've had multiple first hand experiences.

Jeppesen FD Pro shows these regions in red and blue - a real eye opener.

This may require long re-routes and make some routes uneconomical.

Insurance may not cover certain routes or areas.

Increased fuel prices will increase ticket prices making it too expensive for people to fly.


Huge Economic shock incoming imho. Not clear how things will play out.

Going to get really bad imho.

Just in the last 48 hours, in retaliation for Israel bombing the South Fars gas field in Iran, LNG installations in Qatar and the UAE, and oil refineries in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, KSA, Kuwait and Israel have been hit. Estimates range from 2 to 5 years to get all those critical pieces of infrastructure back up and running.

This happened after Iran made a statement of "don't hit our energy facilities, we won't hit yours". But Israel couldn't take the possibility of the war ending without complete destruction of Iran and it coming to a peaceful conclusion.

Estimates are of ~1 month's worth of bombs and offensive missiles in all NATO countries and allies, 2 weeks of defensive missiles in GCC and Israel, and over 6 months left of offensive missiles and drones in Iran.

Every day this extends, costs USD $1B in military costs alone. Iran is getting pummeled, but so are Tel-Aviv and all US bases in the gulf. 2 US aircraft carriers damaged, rumours of a few sunk US Navy ships. One amphib assault ship dispatched, and now this morning another 3 are being deployed from US mainland. All to grab an oil terminal island by Kuwait - not even to open Hormuz. Oil is trading over $150/barrel in Asia, $112 in US, and rising.

$200 barrel by the end of the summer is now a near certainty. B U C K L E U P

If only Canada had more LNG export terminals ready and the shit was being pulled out of the ground with haste. We could take huge advantage of this right now, but the weak leadership for the last 10 years on this topic says otherwise.

piedpiper wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2026 4:04 pm If only Canada had more LNG export terminals ready and the shit was being pulled out of the ground with haste. We could take huge advantage of this right now, but the weak leadership for the last 10 years on this topic says otherwise.

Yeah, well…
“Strong” leadership can lead to chaos as demonstrated by Trump

The trick probably lies somewhere in the middle.

Leadership by vibes?

piedpiper wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2026 4:04 pm If only Canada had more LNG export terminals ready and the shit was being pulled out of the ground with haste. We could take huge advantage of this right now, but the weak leadership for the last 10 years on this topic says otherwise.

ofc it's easy to blame 'leadership' when you dont know what the real factors are / were.

FYI, the LNG plant in Kitimat is running full steam. Some of the other plants that have been proposed, for the most part, never got past the proposal stage because the economics dont make sense. Even with the current kafuffle in the middle east and a bunch of the Qatar sourced LNG now gone for some time, the price for LNG has not really moved significantly, unlike the price of oil. The reason, there is abundant supply still. A year ago, LNG was trading in the vicinity of 3.95, today it's in the vicinity of 3.10, and that is with the gulf supply essentially stopped for the short term, and roughly 20% of the gulf supply for the longer term if you tally up the strikes on the Iranian and Qatar facilities.

At these prices, it doesn't make sense to bring more supply on line, and other than a short period at the onset of the Ukraine war, it hasn't made economic sense for a long time.

So yes, you can go on blaming 'leadership', but the reality of why there isn't more LNG on the west coast is different. It's not there because none of the companies that deal with that market were willing to invest in a billion dollar plant that will provide yet more supply to a market already over supplied.

goldeneagle wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2026 9:00 pm

piedpiper wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2026 4:04 pm If only Canada had more LNG export terminals ready and the shit was being pulled out of the ground with haste. We could take huge advantage of this right now, but the weak leadership for the last 10 years on this topic says otherwise.

ofc it's easy to blame 'leadership' when you dont know what the real factors are / were.

FYI, the LNG plant in Kitimat is running full steam. Some of the other plants that have been proposed, for the most part, never got past the proposal stage because the economics dont make sense. Even with the current kafuffle in the middle east and a bunch of the Qatar sourced LNG now gone for some time, the price for LNG has not really moved significantly, unlike the price of oil. The reason, there is abundant supply still. A year ago, LNG was trading in the vicinity of 3.95, today it's in the vicinity of 3.10, and that is with the gulf supply essentially stopped for the short term, and roughly 20% of the gulf supply for the longer term if you tally up the strikes on the Iranian and Qatar facilities.

At these prices, it doesn't make sense to bring more supply on line, and other than a short period at the onset of the Ukraine war, it hasn't made economic sense for a long time.

So yes, you can go on blaming 'leadership', but the reality of why there isn't more LNG on the west coast is different. It's not there because none of the companies that deal with that market were willing to invest in a billion dollar plant that will provide yet more supply to a market already over supplied.

With regard to gas prices not rising, perhaps looking at EU gas prices over the last month might enlighten one to reality versus US natgas prices. Even if gas prices are not skyrocketing yet like they did after the Ukraine invasion, Europe and others want reliable gas sources. That can been hundreds of thousands of jobs building the infrastructure for contracts of natural gas around the world. At a time when so few new good jobs are available, common sense conservative planning can massively help our economy, instead of letting the greenscammers continue to slowly impoverish you(many of whom made their now safe life investment pumping out carbon) over the last decade, the Trudeau government missed countless opportunities to reduce Canada’s heavy reliance on the United States and instead introduced regulatory hurdles that hindered our energy sector and limited access to new markets. To unleash Canada’s oil and gas sector, the next government must reverse a whole set of harmful energy policies.

For example, the Northern Gateway pipeline designed to transport crude oil from Alberta to British Columbia’s coast. In 2016, one year after taking office, the Trudeau government cancelled this previously approved $7.9 billion project, which would have greatly expanded Canada’s access to Asian markets.

Then there’s the Energy East and Eastern Mainline pipelines from Alberta and Saskatchewan to the east coast. The Trudeau government effectively made the project economically unfeasible by introducing new regulatory hurdles, ultimately forcing the TransCanada energy company to withdraw from the project, which would have expanded access to European markets.

The record is equally bleak for liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities, which could open access to overseas markets. Regulatory barriers and long approval timelines under the Trudeau government significantly hindered the development of the Énergie Saguenay LNG project in Quebec, the Repsol LNG plant in New Brunswick and the Pacific NorthWest LNG facility in B.C.

"....and when opportunity knocked to diversify our trading partners, the government failed to seize it. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, political leaders from Latvia, Ukraine, Germany, Greece and Poland turned to Canada seeking new LNG supply, but Trudeau insisted there was “no business case for LNG” and missed the chance to open new markets.

Finally, the Trudeau government's Bill C-69 created massive uncertainty in project reviews and approvals by introducing vague assessment criteria including "gender implications" for major energy projects including pipelines and LNG export facilities. In fact, according to a recent report, which analyzed 25 major projects that entered the federal government’s review process between 2019 and 2023, almost every project submission remained stuck in the early stages (phase 1 or 2) of the four-phase process, underscoring the inefficiency of the review process.

Meanwhile, the Trudeau government’s Bill C-48 restricts Canadian exports to Asia by banning large oil tankers from B.C.'s northern coast. And its targeted emissions cap, which requires only the oil and gas sector to cut greenhouse gases by 35 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030, is designed to curtail energy production, further limiting Canada’s ability to meet global energy demands."

By the way....intelligent people know that the wisest time to invest in oil and natural gas energy is when prices are low. Usually, that is when construction costs are low(due to excess manpower because prices are low in a recession) and when the projects come on-line, there is a much higher likelihood of prices being at a cyclical high.

https://www.uniper.energy/news/germanys ... -operation

9 months from planning to fully operational LNG terminal in Germany.

One could only DREAM of something like that in Canada. Sure we have Kitimat now. How many years did that take again?

piedpiper wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2026 12:33 pm https://www.uniper.energy/news/germanys ... -operation

9 months from planning to fully operational LNG terminal in Germany.

One could only DREAM of something like that in Canada. Sure we have Kitimat now. How many years did that take again?

The same country that closed its Nuclear Power Plants - Economic suicide imho.

Eric Janson wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2026 4:47 pm
The same country that closed its Nuclear Power Plants - Economic suicide imho.

That is what the greenscammers represent. Many of them are naive fools with no concept of reality that are being led down the garden path of economic suicide by a smaller percentage of intentionally malicious actors with an unmentioned, separate agenda.

Oil and gas receives FOUR TIMES as many subsidies as renewable energy worldwide.

We have seen 50-60 cent jumps at the pump for gas that was entirely made out of Canadian crude refined in Canada.

Whats the scam again?

Can’t wait to take advantage of the EV rebate this year.

pelmet wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2026 9:18 pm

Eric Janson wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2026 4:47 pm
The same country that closed its Nuclear Power Plants - Economic suicide imho.

That is what the greenscammers represent. Many of them are naive fools with no concept of reality that are being led down the garden path of economic suicide by a smaller percentage of intentionally malicious actors with an unmentioned, separate agenda.

The reason they got rid of Nuclear was they didn't feel confident in the whole storage situation. They assumed natural gas was a safe bet as even in the height of the cold war the Russians didn't mess around with their natural gas contracts, so why would Putin do anything differently?