Recession?
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hotel hobo
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- Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2007 3:38 pm
Recession?
No question things are booming. Many companies are expanding and lots of us find ourselves at the bottom of the seniority ladder. How many of you are nervous given all this subprime recession talk?
It's coming. With the US dollar tanking, and lenders feeling the pinch it won't be long. The last forecast I saw was this winter at the earliest, but probably early spring in the US - I would imagine the repurcussions will start to be felt here in Canada not too long after that...
The US economy is still widely forcast to grow, albeit slower in falling to below 2%, through at least 2008. So although we will see an economic slowdown, it won't be called a recession until the economcy is shrinking for two or more consecutive quarters. The Canadian economy will be somewhat impacted by a US slowdown, but our growth rate will remain much stronger than theirs.
The sub-prime lending problem in the US is creating some headlines down there, but as much as anything, it's a diversion for what is really killing their economy; Iraq. How many consecutive years can they continue to suck billions and billions of dollars out of their economy, and tens of thousands of workers, without it having an impact?
Vietnam was an affordable war because the baby boomers provided a larger than necessary workforce. Nowdays, North America has a labour shortage caused by the boomers retiring and they are exacerbating it by committing tens of thousands of people, in the prime of their working lives, to a war effort.
How much longer can they continue until we see a US Peso?
The sub-prime lending problem in the US is creating some headlines down there, but as much as anything, it's a diversion for what is really killing their economy; Iraq. How many consecutive years can they continue to suck billions and billions of dollars out of their economy, and tens of thousands of workers, without it having an impact?
Vietnam was an affordable war because the baby boomers provided a larger than necessary workforce. Nowdays, North America has a labour shortage caused by the boomers retiring and they are exacerbating it by committing tens of thousands of people, in the prime of their working lives, to a war effort.
How much longer can they continue until we see a US Peso?
Here is my take on the economy: The subprime mess will sort its self out by the end of 2008 but the real big thing to watch is the us consumer spending which accounts for 70% of the usa economy as well as a huge chunk of world wide growth. Having said that, the emerging economies, mainly China, India, will continue to show strong growth which bodes well for commodity producing countries such as Canada.
Canada has very strong ties economically to USA and will be affected significantly even though strong overseas demand for commdities exists. It will have a regional affect on Canada with more pain felt in Ontario and Quebec as they export many products to the us consumer.
What will be interesting is the inflation in the future. If inflation will rise at some point within the next 5 yrs, forcing central bankers to raise rates, crushing the economy.
Canada has very strong ties economically to USA and will be affected significantly even though strong overseas demand for commdities exists. It will have a regional affect on Canada with more pain felt in Ontario and Quebec as they export many products to the us consumer.
What will be interesting is the inflation in the future. If inflation will rise at some point within the next 5 yrs, forcing central bankers to raise rates, crushing the economy.
