How Low Will You Go-Part 2

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ivanhoe
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How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by ivanhoe »

Aboriginal-owned Canadian North airlines has served the Northwest Territories and Nunavut for years, but now it's worried about its very survival in the face of a threat from WestJet Airlines Ltd. (WJA-T10.85-0.07-0.64%) WestJet has swooped in on the Edmonton-Yellowknife route with discounted fares, throwing a scare into the hometown carrier, which is based in Yellowknife. Fares between the two cities have fallen by half in some instances since WestJet launched service last month.

“This couldn't have come at a worse time,” Canadian North president Tracy Medve said in an interview. “It's destabilizing. It's horrible.”

The recession has already cut into Canadian North's revenue from serving the energy sector and diamond mines.

With WestJet offering daily flights aboard 136-seat Boeing 737s, “there's too much seat capacity in the market and the ticket prices are unrealistic,” Ms. Medve said, asserting that while Canadian North continues to fly to remote communities, WestJet is “cherry-picking our biggest market.”

About 75,000 people live in the Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, including 20,000 in Yellowknife, the NWT capital.

The Edmonton-Yellowknife route has been a profitable one traditionally for Canadian North, allowing it to effectively subsidize trips to less-populated places, such as Nunavut's capital of Iqaluit.

“We're there to provide ongoing transportation service to the whole North,” said Ms. Medve, who obtained her law degree in 1981 from the University of Saskatchewan. “You're not going to see WestJet flying to Rankin Inlet. You're not going to see them flying to Cambridge Bay, which has a gravel runway.”

WestJet has been promoting fares of $159 one-way on the route, or about $400 roundtrip, including taxes and other charges. Canadian North, whose fleet consists of nine Boeing 737s and four smaller planes, has tried to match the reduced prices whenever possible, but WestJet often lists lower fares.

Canadian North is a throwback of sorts – its passengers still enjoy hot meals on china plates, with metal cutlery. The regional carrier and its predecessors have moved people and cargo across the North for more than 75 years.

Since 1998, it has been owned by NorTerra Inc., a holding company jointly owned by Inuvialuit Development Corp. of Inuvik, NWT, and Nunasi Corp. of Iqaluit in Nunavut. About one-third of the airline's 400 employees are aboriginal, Ms. Medve said.

Bob Cummings, WestJet's executive vice-president of guest experience and marketing, said he recognizes emotions can run high whenever Calgary-based WestJet launches service to smaller markets.

He said WestJet is committed to Yellowknife and is helping boost the local economy, pointing to the example of the Vancouver Island community of Comox, where the airline launched service in 2001 and watched traffic soar from Calgary, spurring a boom in Comox tourism.

WestJet believes it can stimulate new traffic, not merely woo travellers away from Canadian North and other rivals, Mr. Cummings said.

“We've had a lot of positive feedback from the community of Yellowknife. It's a net benefit for the local economy.”

Last year, Canadian North held talks with WestJet in hopes of forming a partnership, but WestJet opted to nurture the Yellowknife market on its own, launching flights from Edmonton in early May. The seasonal service runs until Oct. 31.

Canadian North also competes on the route against Air Canada Jazz and First Air, which is owned by Makivik Corp., the administrator of land-claim settlements of Northern Quebec's Inuit.
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tonysoprano
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by tonysoprano »

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crazy woman
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by crazy woman »

Most of the flying is government money anyway. The stuff WestJet offers to the travelers who are not on government time or money is a reasonable fare to head south with great connections to the rest of Canada.

WestJet is in the business to make money.
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Brick Head
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by Brick Head »

Surely WJ is not taking their actions that lightly though. Transportation is part of Canada's infrastructure even though we don't see cement roads like we do with trucking. The unique nature of Canada's north makes aviation even more important. If WJ's actions damage or destabilize the transportation infrastructure of Canada's north there will be intervention.

In this very political country it doesn't take much to go from a perception of offering value, to being viewed as predatory.

Be careful.
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Realitychex
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by Realitychex »

So let me get this straight. :roll:

Competition between the existing 3 high cost airlines, one of which doesn't fly to points beyond YZF is ok, as long as fares remain artificially high and folks are unable to afford multiple annual visits south to visit friends and family?

Does that mean it's ok for Supermarket A and Supermarket B in YZF to charge $4 for a loaf of bread, but not ok for Supermarket C to charge $2?

Canadian North has had 13 years to prepare for WJ's expansion into YZF. They knew exactly what WJ's costs are and could easily have predicted where fares were headed. It is simple math. About 14 cents a mile over 640 miles = $90 cost per seat each way. Average $180 one way fare and break-even is 68 seats. I see a lead-in fares O&D of $159 rising into the low $300's, consistent with fares from YEG to places like YYJ and YWG, about 100 miles closer and further respectively than YEG-YZF. Add some network traffic, a little belly freight and ancillary revenue into the equation and it's pretty easy to see how economics work. It isn't predatory if it's profitable.

So what did Canadian North do? They buried their heads in the sand and whine in the media. Boo hoo. We don't like competition because it illustrates how inefficient we are.

It now costs half as much to fly to Edmonton and points beyond. Northerners now have unprecedented freedom to enjoy low fares their southern cousins have enjoyed for more than a decade.

Statistics will show that suddenly there's a whole lot more people flying into and out of Yellowknife these days. How is that bad for the local economy?

Ask 100 folks on the street in YZF how they feel about low fares and I'll betcha I know what 99 of them will say.

:lol:
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whiteguy
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by whiteguy »

Realitychex wrote:
So what did Canadian North do? They buried their heads in the sand and whine in the media. Boo hoo. We don't like competition because it illustrates how inefficient we are.
Boy, anyone else see the irony in this statement. "Um Kettle , this is pot, yeah, your black"! :lol:
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tonysoprano
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by tonysoprano »

So what did Canadian North do? They buried their heads in the sand and whine in the media. Boo hoo. We don't like competition because it illustrates how inefficient we are.
What are you talking about? Jazz and First Air have been the competition for a long time. Prices have been very competitive up till now but that's all about to change I suspect. :roll:
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Last edited by tonysoprano on Sat Jun 13, 2009 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Brick Head
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by Brick Head »

Realitychex,

Yup. All accurate. From a business perspective bang on. But just because WJ is right, doesn't mean it is in the best interest of northern residents.

If WJ's actions destabilize, or harm the Transportation infrastructure of the north, the gov't will have no choice but to intervene.

That simple. Jumping in and out of the market, only at its peak, will look really bad on WJ if one of these companies flounder leaving Northern residents at risk of loss of service.

Look no further than the small town backlash against Walmart for its behavior in small markets. Entering markets. Damaging them. Then leaving.

Tread carefully. Or you too can be the next airline to get hamstrung by politics. It is written all over Canadian aviation history.

If you haven't noticed Canadian North looks to have no problem playing this card. They will play it hard too.

WJ does not want to be portrayed as the bully. Although I must say, just as the above posters have mentioned, I too find it ironic that WJ is now at the receiving end of such criticism.
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stickontheice
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by stickontheice »

I think its important to point out that this is a Brent Jang "article".

Canadian North has been in the media constantly telling anyone who will listen that there's too much capacity up there. To me this is a ploy, trying to work up northern loyalty for their airline, and nothing more. I'd be doing the same thing if I were them too. QQ is a great example of how well WJ can benefit a community. XX is another. I imagine if it makes good business sense to make ZF a year round service then it will be done.

I just absolutely love the fact that the AC guys are climbing aboard this band wagon too when in preparation for CCCA they have slashed airfare across the country. No mention of the destabilizing effect that's had on everyone. If that company could maintain its credit rating then they'd probably have all the money they needed in bank by now. However the credit card companies will only release a small percentage of the money from purchased tickets because they are at such a risk to fail. WJ receives 100% because of its credit rating.

It was encouraging to see that three of the unions bought into a plan to help out AC in these tough pension headwinds. The pilots and FAs still have to come onboard. It must be very tough watching Milton being excluded from the executive pay freeze. But at least some are on the right track. Does anyone else find irony in the fact that the plan is very similar to the WJ business model where the employees own part of their company? Red Kool Aid anyone??
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tonysoprano
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by tonysoprano »

Stick.
AC has had to slash fares because someone else (wink wink) started it first. There isn't much of a choice. When passengers stop flying, you guys choose to lower your fares. The whole deal with Canadian North is the smaller scale of the WJ/AC competition. Because of your lower costs, you can afford to slash prices a la Walmart. Careful though. If someone who provides a more complete, better service than you goes under because of your price tactics, the boys in Ottawa might wrap your knuckles. But hey, who cares right? Lower prices were the aim of politicians when they deregulated our industry. I personally think there will come a day when we will revisit all this.
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CanadianEh
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by CanadianEh »

While I may be a young, naive grasshopper, I just don't see why Westjet has to undercut Canadian North by so much. A 50% fare drop is pretty substantial. Why can't everyone just get together and set their fares at reasonable level so that everyone makes a little cheese. Oh yeah, I forgot about greed, competition and capitalism. Silly me.
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Realitychex
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by Realitychex »

WJ has always developed pricing based on its costs and a desired margin.

It's not WJ's fault that other airlines have higher costs and aren't able to make the same margins WJ does with the current fare levels in YZF, or any other market.

There's nothing particular different about WJ's pricing in YZF compared to the rest of the network. Fares this month from Edmonton to Yellowknife range from a high of 50.6 cents a mile to a low of 24.8 cents a mile.

Fares from Edmonton to Winnipeg, (about 100 miles further), range from a high of 51.9 cents a mile to a low of 20.1 cents a mile.

Fares from Ottawa to Halifax, about 45 miles shorter than YZF-YEG, range from 46.9 cents a mile to 23.4 cents a mile.

It's not WJ's fault if other airlines use windfall profits on one route to cross-subsidize other routes. If it costs Canadian North more to operate into some of the remote places they operate, they might want to consider charging higher fares to cover off the costs of doing so.

Will Yellowknife be the first city in the Western World to demand government intervention to force a low cost competitor to leave and demand higher airfares for all?

BTW...I notice that no one is complaining now that Canadian Tire has opened up a store in YZF and brought prices down to the same levels as in the South.....

8)
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Flightlevels
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by Flightlevels »

"When passengers stop flying, you guys choose to lower your fares"
What are you saying Tony? we recently led the way to lower fares? Have you been interacting and getting information with your management like us? Wheres the proof? did I miss a press release? :lol:
the fact is that you may or may not be aware of is we even tried to raise the fares but your res didn't move so we had to lower ours to match yours. It's been going on for months. Go have a chat with your marketing guys (if you are allowed) Go have a chat with some big wigs and see what they have been up to in Bairds office :wink:
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eep...2 Green
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by eep...2 Green »

ha ha westjet totally sucks...BRIAN...brian!
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tonysoprano
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by tonysoprano »

What are you saying Tony? we recently led the way to lower fares?
You gotta be kidding me big guy.
Anyway, here's what I do know: as I recall the "lowest price guarantee" was started by WJ. We followed. As I read the newspapers I am totally astounded at just how low some of the fares you put up can be. Good for you but your boss is saying margins will drop by 18% this year because of this. Hey, if you can take that hit and still do good, that's good for you. Regardless, let's not forget how you entered the airline business to begin with, by claiming you were the low fare airline (and still is your claim to fame). What, all the sudden you're now Canada's full fare airline? Who started this FL? All I'm saying is if you only affect big red you won't have a problem. It's when you start running the smaller companies out of business by screwing up the smaller markets that you will hear about it. Baird's office? Couldn't really care buddy. I don't take the news too seriously anymore.
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stickontheice
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by stickontheice »

I see the arguement as two fold.

First running a service between Yellowknife and Edmonton is a natural expansion of the WestJet network. It wasn't designed to knock off competitors but to offer high value low cost airfare to the north. The airfares have been artificially high on this route for a long time and connecting the north to the rest of Canada is going to benefit Yellowknife and hopefully in the future other northern destinations perhaps like Whitehorse. In my opinion Canadian North is using the media and crying foul as part of a business ploy to get their cause front and centre. In the end Northerners will choose and WJ may come out on the losing end. Personally I doubt it but that's business.

Secondly for anyone at AC to get on this band wagon and cry foul is an absolute farce. How many airlines were forced into bankruptcy by their business practises in the 80s and 90s? As a result of the Canadian/Air Canada merger the Gov't was forced to address this because it was thought that AC would never play fair as it wasn't when WJ and CanJet attempt to start up routes in the east. Why were we in Hamilton and not Pearson for a few years? Why were routes that WJ ran so cheap compared to routes that weren't covered? Why did we volunteer to stop flying for those few weeks in 96? The long and the short of it was AC. Now you're on the unfair business practise bandwagon????

Here's an interesting article put out by the Gov't:

Ottawa, March 5, 2001 - The Competition Bureau today asked the Competition Tribunal for an order prohibiting Air Canada from engaging in anti-competitive practices directed against low cost carriers WestJet and CanJet.

Here's the rest of that link: http://www.cb-bc.gc.ca/eic/site/cb-bc.n ... 00489.html

It was so bad the Gov't had to step in and put in controls. Fast forward to now and I would argue that AC is again in violation of this document but instead of dominance it’s to put cash in its bank in preparation for CCCA. Look I am hoping for the best. I don't want to see good men and women lose their jobs at CN or AC and certainly don't want the Yanks up here flying our routes. Just want to see good competition and everyone on an equal playing field which I think WJ is doing.
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Brick Head
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by Brick Head »

You guys are too funny.

Your right the low fairs have nothing to do with too much capacity in the market place.

So let me get this straight?

The airline that decided to keep adding capacity during an economic slow down, while everyone else was retrenching, is blaming the yield drop on who?

The airline that decided to keep adding capacity during an economic slow down, while everyone else was retrenching, isn't trying to use the opportunity to push the competition out?

Come on guys. It's business. Sometimes it's ugly. If it makes you feel better believing your employer is Mary Poppins go ahead.

The truth of the matter is that your management is as every bit ruthless as the next. The truth of the matter is that the present fares have been caused by too much capacity in this economic environment. The truth of the matter is WJ is trying to create a yield environment where only their cost structure can be profitable. It just makes sense to do so since you are the lowest.

If yields have dropped below even what WJ can make money at then it is merely an indication that they went too far, too fast. But no worries man you got enough in the bank to cover the mistake. It is everyone else that will pay the piper.

Not that this is some sinister thing or something. It is called competition. Just saying. Don't bother sugar coating it.
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Last edited by Brick Head on Sun Jun 14, 2009 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
stickontheice
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by stickontheice »

Oh thank god BrickHead you've swooped down from your high perch and made sense of all of this. I was beginning to worry that there'd be no way out of this discussion. But you've down it with your fairy tale analogies and smiley icons. You should run an airline you seem to have such a good grip on it all. :prayer:

Yes we're trying to earn market share and trying to make money. We have a successful business model that works whether you're in the north or south. We're competing hard and earning our way to market success and network expansion.
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Brick Head
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by Brick Head »

Well at least I am finally getting the respect I deserve. :D

Hey man. It's business. Sometimes it is ugly. I get tired of hearing how it is always everyone else's fault when WJ comes under stress.

Strategic mistakes happen. Just like not every market works. Right.

WJ is a very successful airline that you should be proud of. But don't be in so much denial that you believe they can never error. Errors happen. It is how they get fixed that matters.

There are inherent dangers in believing your own BS.
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tapaflyguy
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by tapaflyguy »

Whaaa to Air Canada and Canadian North and the others. How many government hand outs has Westjet had? Have we played the "native card yet"? Treat people the way you want to be treated and you will succeed. Business is Business. Good ole canada let's bail people out all the time. Let people fail. During my countless aviation layoffs, nobody gave me handouts, you get another job-deal with it! I have worked for AC-I hated it, remember treat people the way you want to be treated, what comes around goes around!
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truedude
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by truedude »

How many government handouts has Air Canada had? Oh yeah that's right none... maybe get your facts straight before you post something stupid.
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bmc
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by bmc »

Prior to May 1986 Freedom to Move, liberalization of the air industry in Canada, no Canadian airline could compete on more than 30% of Air Canada's routes.

Also, when it came time for fleet renewal, who paid for it? Tax payers, since AC was a crown corporation.
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by truedude »

First off, that's not a handout. All routes in the country were regulated. Also if you bother to do your homework you will find that when all was said and done, Air Canada actually made the Canadian tax payers around 300 million.
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Realitychex
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by Realitychex »

tapaflyguy wrote:Whaaa to Air Canada and Canadian North and the others. How many government hand outs has Westjet had? Have we played the "native card yet"? Treat people the way you want to be treated and you will succeed. Business is Business. Good ole canada let's bail people out all the time. Let people fail. During my countless aviation layoffs, nobody gave me handouts, you get another job-deal with it! I have worked for AC-I hated it, remember treat people the way you want to be treated, what comes around goes around!

Medve is whining about competition on YEG-YZF. Meanwhile, she's undercutting both AC AND WJ on YYC-YEG with $59 fares tomorrow morning. WJ's lowest fare within 28 days is $99 and AC has some $99 fares a week from now.

I wonder how her bosses feel about the kind of losses she must be incurring flying 30 year old, 900gph, US$1,400 per hour maintenance cost pigs with 40 cent++ casm on 162 mile sectors, with no fleet renewal plan. Brilliant. Just brilliant.

She hasn't got a pot to pi$$ in, and she knows it.

Begging for reregulation isn't a strategy, dear.

8)
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bmc
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Re: How Low Will You Go-Part 2

Post by bmc »

truedude wrote:First off, that's not a handout. All routes in the country were regulated. Also if you bother to do your homework you will find that when all was said and done, Air Canada actually made the Canadian tax payers around 300 million.
Why the need to be jerk?
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