Brace yourselves, Boeing says pilot shortage coming ;)

[Invertago]

Airlines in need of pilots and crew: Boeing
Thu Sep 16, 1:49 AM

SINGAPORE (AFP) - The commercial aviation industry will need more than a million pilots and maintenance personnel in the next 20 years, with Asia accounting for almost 40 percent of demand, Boeing said Thursday.

The US plane maker estimated world demand at 466,650 pilots and 596,500 maintenance personnel from 2010 to 2029, of whom 180,600 pilots and 220,000 maintenance personnel would be needed in Asia, particularly in China.

"When you add up all the numbers you quickly understand the issues facing this industry," Roei Ganzarski, chief customer officer for Boeing Training and Flight Services, told a news conference in Singapore.

Maintenance personnel include engineers and mechanics.

"Our challenge is adapting our training to engage the future generation of people who will fly and maintain the more than 30,000 airplanes that will be delivered by 2029," he added.

The world commercial aviation fleet is forecast to grow from 18,890 planes in 2009 to 36,300 in 2029, Boeing said.

Airline association IATA said in July that global air travel grew faster than expected in June led by a sharp improvement in Asia, particularly in China, following a severe slowdown during the global recession.

"The industry continues to recover faster than expected, but with sharp regional differences," said IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani.

Boeing said that in the next 20 years, North America will need 97,350 pilots and 137,000 maintenance personnel while Europe will require 94,800 pilots and 122,000 maintenance personnel.

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/1609 ... oeing.html

[N2]

Seems to me they were saying the same thing 20 years ago!

[2.5milefinal]

I think we will see single pilot airliners sooner then later. So maybe there won't be a shortage.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... iners.html

[Panama Jack]

Yes, there will be a shortage of different scales, particularly in Asia. This does not necessarily mean white vans with tinted windows and without licence plates snatching pimply-faced new CPL's with 250 hours TT right from the curb side of the Flight Training School in broad daylight, though.

Things will look good though for pilots who do have quality time, multi-engine jet, multi-crew operations, leadership capable and no accident history or other questionable attributes and, preferably, the right passport (do you by any chance have a United Arab Emirates, India, or People's Republic of China passport)? It is already here, with Chinese carriers competing to attract direct-entry Captains.

Expect to see it also in the US Regional Airline industry with their increased minimum qualifications, by law.

As far as Canada goes, oh well. The world will be an interesting place for those willing and able to leave.

[Pilot_king!]

Wow, that article brightens my day. That is if you want to fly jets.

[snowshoe]

[quote="N2"]Seems to me they were saying the same thing 20 years ago![/quote]


Yep, I heard it too! Also heard it 20 years before that....

[LegoMan]

466,000+ pilots in the next 10 years? This sounds like nothing more than trying to instill confidence in airlines to purchase planes and invest in aviation market. With the cost of fuel and other commodities, I would highly doubly that number. Corporations are pulling back on their employees travel, and utilizing technology (video meetings, iLinc) to do business as it just doesn't seem necessary to travel. My company pulled back all our managers and consultants travel down 70% and saved more than $133,000 in the latest budget report. I just don't see this number as nothing more as the same propaganda we've seen the last two decades. Truth is not as many people are getting into aviation both in the pilots, management, maintenance and flight attendants. The pay is crap, working conditions are crap, little job security in an unstable market. Flight schools are hurting, as are pilots shops... even Warren Buffett said the future of transportation especially in North America will no longer be air but rail. And Mr.Buffett is never wrong about these things. Flying will go back to be a luxury for the elite and wealthy... I've said it before and you will all be repeating this in about 10-15 years....Legoman....out!

[cgzro]

even Warren Buffett said the future of transportation especially in North America will no longer be air but rail. And Mr.Buffett is never wrong about these things

Certainly in Europe the trains are WAYYYY better than the planes. I zip around Europe quite a bit Paris/London,Brussles, and around the UK and its bloody fantastic. Especailly the London to Paris trip under the chunnel trip .. fast, comfortable, minimal security hassles. Major thumbs up.

Don't get me wrong, I love flying .. just not from the back!!

Peter

[short bus]

Just lifted this off of an article describing 10 job sectors in the US that may or may not recover:

8. Airlines. The number of pilots, flight attendants and ground crew workers is shrinking as consolidation and the recession have hurt the industry badly. Mergers in the last two years, between Delta and Northwest and United's merger with Continental, have decreased the number of large carriers in the U.S. by half. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported that the number of airline employees in the U.S. has fallen by 25% since 2001. And the latest merger firings have not yet been announced. Jobs for pilots and flight engineers fell by 30.4% in the third quarter of 2009 to 96,000 from 138,000 jobs in 2008, according to the BLS.

[complexintentions]

Next up for comparison: bicycles and airplanes.

Rail is great, I much prefer it for travel myself. It's civilized and comfortable, unlike the grotesque joke that air travel has become. But for those Dubai to San Francisco trips, I find it less practical.

The US will continue to contract but eventually will bottom out and have some modest growth, if only due to demographics: massive retirements and far fewer eager beavers coming in at the bottom, and as PJ pointed out, increased minimums will help a bit. Turns out flying a shiny plane isn't that attractive at 15K/year.

But none of that is the point - the growth is coming from the East. How many posters here are actually living or working outside of the North American market? It isn't a myth, it's happening today even with our own company (Emirates) having trouble attracting enough qualified applicants for jobs. If the current FAA audit imposes their revised flight time limitations as a condition of access to the US, it will only exacerbate the problem as it will require even more crews than the 700 they want to hire this year alone.

Meh. My advice would be to get a real job in your home country. An airplane isn't worth living in China or the Middle East for. But I'm sure that will fall on deaf ears!

[doiwannabeapilot]

.

[Legacy]

even Warren Buffett said the future of transportation especially in North America will no longer be air but rail. And Mr.Buffett is never wrong about these things

Certainly in Europe the trains are WAYYYY better than the planes. I zip around Europe quite a bit Paris/London,Brussles, and around the UK and its bloody fantastic. Especailly the London to Paris trip under the chunnel trip .. fast, comfortable, minimal security hassles. Major thumbs up.

Don't get me wrong, I love flying .. just not from the back!!

Peter

Yeah I can just see that. Well come aboard Via 122 service from Boston to San Diego. We will be arriving some time later on next week, give or take, with stops in New York, Washing ton DC, Dayton, Indianapolis, St Louis, Kansas City, Denver, Salt lake City, San Francisco, LA, and San Diego with additional stops in more places as we see fit.

[Panama Jack]

Meh. My advice would be to get a real job in your home country. An airplane isn't worth living in China or the Middle East for. But I'm sure that will fall on deaf ears!

I'd have to admit that I am enjoying the expat lifestyle, complexintentions, and the Middle East (GCC) and even China don't seem that bad. I have to admire though the guys who slug it out in INDIA (I'd Never Do It Again). And GMG Airlines and United Airways out in Dhaka, Bangladesh, seem to be struggling to attract and retain expat personnel.

Was having a few drinks with another Canadian expat pilot recently who summarized the irony in that he went to Asia and Developing Countries to get the high-paying jobs and better lifestyle, while the Asians were coming to Canada for the high-paying jobs and better lifestyle.

[flyinggreasemonkey]

Sounds like Maylan better get their ass in gear...at this rate the original group of students might be ready for a right seat by 2029.

[complexintentions]

heheh hey man, I'm glad you like it, and I mean that sincerely. To each their own! My comments are of course, only my own opinion.

I've found ways to make it work, and there are certainly benefits. But if there was ever a place that proved the saying "money isn't everything", it's the Middle East. And if I had to do it again, knowing what I do now?! @#$! no.

India?! *shudder*

Jobs? Yes. Quality of life? Depends how you define it I guess!

[Panama Jack]

Thanks complexintentions. I appreciate that and always enjoy reading your eloquent posts.

No place is perfect and I admit that, and there are good days and bad like anywhere. In any case, I am happy in the place and the company that I working for in the Middle East (not all are the same) and if I had to change jobs, I would probably just as soon leave the region. The one thing missing to make my quality of life "complete" as I see it right now is to have my own two-seater airplane. The country I live in would not allow it and/or make it pretty much impossible, and if I were to live in Canada, I probably couldn't afford it.

The other factor, in my case, is that I originate from a place in Canada far away from any meaningful amount of aviation (which could satisfy an acceptable income standard and professional aspiration). So if I had to live in Toronto, well, then I might as well consider living in the Middle East as well. At least I get 52 days vacation and have been able to get summer vacations, even when I was relatively junior.

I have heard a saying that "once you leave home, you can never be happy again." Because you will miss the things from "home" but if you ever go back, you will miss the "better" things you had or experienced elsewhere. Few people will who have gone through the same will fully understand that.

Aviation, it's an illness.