Reality Check: Egypt

[JakeYYZ]

As much as I would like to believe otherwise, I don't think that Egypt has the political infrastructure to allow a democratic government to secure its territory.

As I write this, the Israelis are, quite rightly, freaking out. They've seen this movie twice in the last six years and the last thing they need is a third mess on their border, which I'm sure you'll admit, is the most likely scenario. I'm also sure that you'd agree that nothing would kill that democracy off more quickly than another war with Israel.
I don’t think the Muslim Brotherhood is like the Iranian Mullahs. In all probability, they're likely to the right of the current Turkish government. Granted, I haven't read as extensively on the current Muslim Brotherhood as I should.
That being said though, there is genuine cause for concern. If you've read Lawrence Wright's The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11, you see a direct evolutionary line between the Brotherhood and al-Qaeda, albeit one that was precipitated by Egyptian crackdowns that were sponsored in whole or in part by the United States.

There's also a question of if a group that has been persecuted the way the Brotherhood has the capacity to govern, which is a security concern, particularly for Israel. Key to that is whether they would uphold the Camp David Accords? If they do uphold them, would they be prone to an electoral defeat by, or a counter-coup from, more radical elements of their coalition?

Perhaps it might be time for the military to take over, pressured by the United States and the EU, to allow for political liberalization. Over the course of a set number of years, the army would cede more and more power to an elected parliament

Yes, leaving things in the hands of a junta is filled with risk, I understand. But it seems to me that there's far less risk involved with that than throwing everything to the wind and hoping for the best.

[North Shore]

I wonder though, if a coup was engineered to head off the Muslim brotherhood, whether they'd just re-emerge 1, 5, 7,10 years down the line, even more determined to get in on the power? Perhaps it would be best to keep them out in the open where their activity could be monitored?
I haven't really been following the events, but I doubt that the young people who seem to be engineering the current unrest would accept a radical Islamic government?

[Inverted2]

Mubarak was bought off with lots of US $$$ to be pro Israel. Nothing more than a lapdog for US/Israel..... Oh well they had a good 30 year run with him but good to see the people rise up.

[Jack Klumpus]

Egyptians aren't rising up due to their government's foreign policy, read israel, rather than the everyday living standards that they have been through.

[Sheila]

Then the Egyptians are leading the wayfor many countries that are suffering the same deprivation.
The protesters were peaceful and for days they were peaceful. They are protesting to get the Dictator President out. There should be some support for their peaceful protest. I don't think the protesters are committing the violence. Outsiders should stop forecasting chaos and doom for the protesters, if they succeed.

[helicopterray]

Those of us who aren't Egyptian have no right to tell them who should govern them.

This is NOT about Israel.

Mubarak's time is over. If the world wants the next government to be nice and friendly, then they should start supporting the people who will make up the next government.

[JakeYYZ]

The military seems to be coming out of the shadows and re-establishing its control.

The Egyptian military has rejected the demands of pro-democracy protesters for a swift transfer of power to a civilian administration, saying it intends to rule by martial law until elections are held.
The army's announcement, which included the suspending of the constitution, was a further rebuff to some pro-democracy activists after troops were sent to clear demonstrators from Cairo's Tahrir Square, the centre of the protests that brought down Hosni Mubarak. "We do not want any protesters to sit in the square after today," said the head of the military police, Mohamed Ibrahim Moustafa Ali. Many agreed to leave but a hardcore refused, saying they would remain until the army took a series of steps toward democratic reform including installing a civilian-led government and abolishing the repressive state of emergency.
The ruling military council said it intends to retain power for six months or longer while elections are scheduled and will rule by decree. It suspended the constitution and said a committee will draw up amendments that will be put to a referendum. It also dissolved the widely discredited parliament, elected in a tainted ballot last year.
In a sign that the army will only tolerate a limited challenge to its power, it is expected to issue a communique on Monday saying that it will crack down on those creating "chaos and disorder" as well as effectively banning strikes.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/fe ... r-handover

[Expat]

I think the best for the west to do, is sit on the sidelines. Any interference will backfire big time. The situation in the Muslim world now is tense, and demands diplomacy. I think Obama has played well so far, by speaking little, and not taking side.
Damage contro; at this time, means looking at the map, and try to minimize copycats revolutions.

[2R]

It was the strangest military coup i have ever seen.
Anyone know what percentage of the upper brass where trained out of country ?
But the really important question is: does the upper brass prefer Bourbon,Gin,Whiskey,Jui,or Vodka ?
It might get even stranger if the people who now own the old Panama Canal and are building the new Panama Canal gain control of the Suez Canal as well

[JakeYYZ]

I think the best for the west to do, is sit on the sidelines. Any interference will backfire big time. The situation in the Muslim world now is tense, and demands diplomacy. I think Obama has played well so far, by speaking little, and not taking side.
Damage contro; at this time, means looking at the map, and try to minimize copycats revolutions.

Well...I dunno Expat..I think Mr Ferguson’s observations of the Obama administration are closer to reality. Google Clinton, Biden and Obama’s flip-flop’s on the events in Egypt.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/

I think the criticism against Obama quite valid, indeed, deserved.

[Sheila]

What happened to the vice president and the protocol to put him as temporary leader? Are the vice-president or former parliamentarians refusing to step in because they want to punish the people? Guess nobody is talking about that yet.

[Expat]

Another strange thing, is that the dictators that are not supported by Washington seem for the moment safe. And there are quite a few.
This will add to the diminishing popularity of Washington in the world... No question...
From my point of view for the past six years, being only exposed to the world press, it has been evident for quite some time. But now, this seems to accelerate.
The two wars in Iraq and Af have built up anti US pressure, and the cooker is slowly exploding. The next few years will be interesting.

[Expat]

As much as I would like to believe otherwise, I don't think that Egypt has the political infrastructure to allow a democratic government to secure its territory.

Yes, leaving things in the hands of a junta is filled with risk, I understand. But it seems to me that there's far less risk involved with that than throwing everything to the wind and hoping for the best.

From my knowledge, from Morocco to Indonesia, not one Muslim country has been successful in implementing a democratic system that worked. A number of democracies exists, but the army, or the president, or the king, effectively rule. Even Turkey, Pakistan, have strong autocrat governments, who use the army as a tool to stay in power. Any hopes of a peaceful democracy in Egypt are dreams. Like in Iraq!.

[JakeYYZ]

I agree. Egypt has no hope for the future. They just destroyed their tourism industry, they have no oil, they couldn't grow a dandelion, and 70% of the young men are unemployed. The reality is most of the demonstrators only know what they don't want. They don't want to be poor, and they don't want to be brutalized by the police. Other than that they have no clue how to bring this about. They believe the west is evil to the core, and have no desire to follow our model. They believe democracy allows too much freedom to non-believers, and perverts (which is hard to argue). They just don't have enough information available to make a choice. Freedom for the Egyptian people is a wonderful thing, if they even know what that is.

[Beefitarian]

Couldn't grow a dandelion?

[Dash-Ate]

Closer to home we are sooo screwed by you know who..

An Israeli company provided "security" to the alleged 9/11 hijacker airports, and an Isralei company provided the security that allowed an alleged "underwear bomber" to check i and board without a passport or papers!
Never mind this...go back to worrying about a moslem bogeyman meanwhile...

And now this...:

U.S. Nuclear Weapons Being “Guarded” by Israel
By Michael Collins Piper at kavkazcenter.com


American supporters of Israel were delighted to learn that an Israeli company, Magal Security Systems-owned in part by the government of Israel-is in charge of security for the most sensitive nuclear power and weapons storage facilities in the United States.

The largest perimeter security company in the world, Magal started out as a division of Israeli Aircraft Industries (IAI)-which was owned in part by the government of Israel. In recent years, however, Magal evolved into a publicly-traded company, although IAI (and thus the government of Israel) still holds a substantial share in the highly successful firm.

What all of this means is that the government of Israel will actually have control over the security of America's nuclear weapons.

Supporters of Israel say that this is a splendid idea, since Israel is said to be perhaps America's closest ally on the face of the planet. However, there are some critics who question the propriety of America's super-sensitive nuclear security being in the hands of any foreign nation, particularly Israel which, even today, officially denies that it is engaged in the production of nuclear arms.

Be that as it may, however, Magal's global interests are quite broad-ranging. Having secured 90 percent of Israel's borders through a wide-ranging array of super-modern "space age" technology, Magal has now branched out internationally.

Not only does Magal provide security for American nuclear facilities, but it also does likewise for most major nuclear facilities in Western Europe and Asia. In addition, the Israeli firm also provides security for Chicago's O'Hare Airport and, for the last fifteen years, has kept watch on the Queen of England's famed Buckingham Palace in London. What's more, Magal provides security for 90% of the American prisons that utilize electronic systems. Magal brags that its other clients around the globe include: borders, airports, industrial sites, communication centers, military installations, correctional facilities, government agencies, VIP estates and residences, commercial buildings and storage yards.

There is hardly a major country or major enterprise that does not have Magal's security specialists keeping a close watch on their activities.

Clearly, Magal is no small enterprise. While 27% of its total sales are in the Israeli market, its largest market is in North America, which currently accounts for 35% of its sales.

However, Magal's American outreach is expected to increase substantially, especially now that firm has set up a Washington, D.C. office which will promote its products to federal agencies and to the members of Congress who provide funding for federally-supervised security projects across the country at all levels: local, state and national.

And with current U.S. Homeland Security Chief, Michael Chertoff, not only a strong supporter of Israel but also the son of a woman who has strong Israeli ties-even including service with El Al, the national airline of Israel-Magal, owned in party by Israeli Aircraft Industries-will be a clear-cut favorite in the eyes of the power brokers in official Washington who have the power to grant lucrative security contracts.

At the moment, Magal has four U.S.-based subsidiaries: two in California, Stellar Security Products, Inc. and Perimeter Products Inc., as well as the New York-based Smart Interactive Systems, Inc., and the Virginia-based Dominion Wireless, Inc.

All told, the Israeli company holds a 40% share in the worldwide market in perimeter intrusion detection systems and is working to expand its business in the protection of oil pipelines.

Magal is also said to be quite interested in guarding water lines around the globe, particularly in the United States. In fact, Magal may have an inside shot at getting a monopoly in guarding America's water supplies.

On July 19, the Bush administration's Environmental Protection Agency announced a "partnership" with the Israeli Ministry of National Infrastructures to improve what they called "water supply system security in the United States and Israel." Since Magal is so highly respected in Israel, it's an even bet that Magal will soon be guarding the U.S. water supply.

By Michael Collins Piper

[Dash-Ate]

Relaity Check: war is about controlling resources, OIL in this case. Turn off the news. People fight over MONEY.

Look where these oil finds are located...ring a bell at all?

[Siddley Hawker]

You hang around with some strange people Dash.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Collins_Piper

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willis_Carto

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kavkaz_Center

[JakeYYZ]

Alahu Ackbar means we want free elections in barbarian?
Egypt, as you’ve heard, has tossed the old constitution and has commissioned a board to write a new one. On the board is the Muslim Brotherhood’s current spiritual leader. They didn’t even give Google and the twenty-somethings in Obama’s state dept a decent interval to get their skirts back down off their faces.

[Dash-Ate]

These pictures are proof who is behind this controlled, designed chaos:



http://www.activistpost.com/2011/02/cia ... llege.html

First noted by geopolitical analyst and historian Dr. Webster Tarpley, some suspicious similarities could be seen between the Egyptian unrest and another, known US-backed uprising in Serbia. Serbia's Otpor, or the "resistance," was funded to the tune of millions by the US National Endowment for Democracy. Its signature clenched fist logo adorned flags, signboards, and t-shirts carried by the US State Department-laid Astro Turf until the ousting of Slobodan Milošević in 2000.

The exact same logo would turn up 11 years later across the Mediterranean Sea in the streets of Cairo, illustrating further the preposterous, foreign-backed nature of the Egyptian uprisings. Could it just be just a coincidence and Dr. Tarpley's take mere speculative conjecture? Not even close

[Dash-Ate]

how's that "democracy" working out? In with the new military dictator, out with the old.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2011/ ... 33656.html
Egypt army aims to crack down on protesters

By REUTERS



CAIRO - Egypt’s ruling military council said on Saturday it would clear protesters from a central Cairo square with “firmness and force””to allow life to return to normal.

[Dash-Ate]

Little girls going to school? War is a business...and business is damn good.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=24479



Financial Heist of the Century: Confiscating Libya’s Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF)

Share | April 25, 2011
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By Manlio Dinucci - Global Research

The objective of the war against Libya is not just its oil reserves (now estimated at 60 billion barrels), which are the greatest in Africa and whose extraction costs are among the lowest in the world, nor the natural gas reserves of which are estimated at about 1,500 billion cubic meters. In the crosshairs of “willing” of the operation “Unified Protector” there are sovereign wealth funds, capital that the Libyan state has invested abroad.



The Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) manages sovereign wealth funds estimated at about $70 billion U.S., rising to more than $150 billion if you include foreign investments of the Central Bank and other bodies. But it might be more. Even if they are lower than those of Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, Libyan sovereign wealth funds have been characterized by their rapid growth. When LIA was established in 2006, it had $40 billion at its disposal. In just five years, LIA has invested over one hundred companies in North Africa, Asia, Europe, the U.S. and South America: holding, banking, real estate, industries, oil companies and others.

In Italy, the main Libyan investments are those in UniCredit Bank (of which LIA and the Libyan Central Bank hold 7.5 percent), Finmeccanica (2 percent) and ENI (1 percent), these and other investments (including 7.5 percent of the Juventus Football Club) have a significance not as much economically (they amount to some $5.4 billion) as politically.

Libya, after Washington removed it from the blacklist of “rogue states,” has sought to carve out a space at the international level focusing on “diplomacy of sovereign wealth funds.” Once the U.S. and the EU lifted the embargo in 2004 and the big oil companies returned to the country, Tripoli was able to maintain a trade surplus of about $30 billion per year which was used largely to make foreign investments. The management of sovereign funds has however created a new mechanism of power and corruption in the hands of ministers and senior officials, which probably in part escaped the control of the Gadhafi himself: This is confirmed by the fact that, in 2009, he proposed that the 30 billion in oil revenues go “directly to the Libyan people.” This aggravated the fractures within the Libyan government.

U.S. and European ruling circles focused on these funds, so that before carrying out a military attack on Libya to get their hands on its energy wealth, they took over the Libyan sovereign wealth funds. Facilitating this operation is the representative of the Libyan Investment Authority, Mohamed Layas himself: as revealed in a cable published by WikiLeaks. On January 20 Layas informed the U.S. ambassador in Tripoli that LIA had deposited $32 billion in U.S. banks. Five weeks later, on February 28, the U.S. Treasury “froze” these accounts. According to official statements, this is “the largest sum ever blocked in the United States,” which Washington held “in trust for the future of Libya.” It will in fact serve as an injection of capital into the U.S. economy, which is more and more in debt. A few days later, the EU “froze” around 45 billion Euros of Libyan funds.

[azimuthaviation]

About 8 years ago Ghaddafi said "god curse oil" and the money it brings only brings unwanted attention and trouble. He should have taken his own advice. If hes a fool enough to get suckered out of his money by the west oh well, better spent here than on entertainment for his sons. The lesson the libyans learn from this is worth more than the billions that were taken from them.

[200hr Wonder]

[JakeYYZ]

Egypt is disintegrating socially and its economy “is bust,” said Mohamed ElBaradei, the former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency and possible candidate for the Egyptian presidency.

“Right now, socially, we are disintegrating,” ElBaradei said on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS,” scheduled to air Sunday. “Economically we are not in the best state. Politically it’s -- it’s like a black hole. We do not know where we are heading.”
“People do not feel secure,” ElBaradei said. “They are buying guns” to protect themselves, he said.

ElBaradei said he wasn’t sure when a presidential race could begin because there aren’t any laws that outline “how to run a campaign, how you raise funds” or when candidates can become official.

“What kind of state or regime we are going to have?” ElBaradei asked. “Is it a presidential system? Is it a parliamentary system? When are we going to have a new constitution?”

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=221660

Wheat prices jumped on Wednesday, taking the week's gains to 17%, an ascent that threatens to put fresh pressure on fragile Middle East governments that import the grain to feed their people.
Wet weather in the U.S. and dryness in Western Europe are driving the recent rise. Wheat futures jumped 53 cents, or 7%, to $8.17 per bushel Wednesday, the biggest single-day dollar gain in more than seven months, and are now up 91% in less than a year.
Rising wheat prices jarred global markets last summer, amid a harsh Russian drought, and have stayed high for months.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... %3Darticle
All the discussion about Egypt's future political model and its prospective relations with Israel will be overshadowed by the country's inability to feed itself. Egypt imports half of its wheat.