Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

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canam2000
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Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by canam2000 »

Received this email today:

Dear Pilot Colleague

No name needed, no employer details, no nothing... please just take 20 seconds to hit the reply button and let us know:

a) Which Aircraft you’re currently flying (or most recently)?

b) Which Licence are you Operating with (eg. FAA ATP or JAA ATPL)?

c) Are you a Captain or First Officer (or other)?

d) What Monthly Salary and Benefits Package would you want to receive to move into a new job and/or should you be earning now (on the above Aircraft)?

…and we’ll then make sure our Clients know what proper pay rates and benefits they will need to offer, if they’d like Pilots to apply for their Vacancies during 2012.

Thank You!
The Betts Team

Ps. Please only reply once, just in case we send this email to you more than that (and our apologies in advance if we do; we’re upgrading our IT systems later in 2012)


Is it possible companies are having troubles finding pilots who don't want to make $20,000 a year and be shackled to floor for 2yrs? I know Betts is a great recruitment company, are there troubles recruiting??? Pilot Shortage is becoming more noticed?? Is it becoming OUR time now.....

question: What was the salary of a navajo captain 20yrs ago compared today? Thoughts???
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Rowdy
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Rowdy »

Alright employers, time to up you fares and increase your pilot wages/ remuneration packages. Maybe it's also time to provide us with PROPER medical/dental/retirement packages too..
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Beefitarian
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Post by Beefitarian »

It's some guys trying to find out the highest wage they can ask for in an interview while still underbidding everyone else.
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RudderWhat
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by RudderWhat »

I'm excited for the pilot shortage, maybe I will finally make something livable.
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Last edited by RudderWhat on Tue Jul 03, 2012 5:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
teacher
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by teacher »

My thoughts on a pilot shortage? There isn't one.
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twinpratts
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by twinpratts »

What shortage?
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Panama Jack
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Panama Jack »

Could somebody please define "pilot shortage?"
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planett
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by planett »

Notice the words "FAA or JAA ATPL".... we're not invited to the party. A conversion may solve some of this problem, but we're still poaching type ratings.

Edit: That the effort is made to try and find pilots is encouraging.
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Eric Janson
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Re:

Post by Eric Janson »

Beefitarian wrote:It's some guys trying to find out the highest wage they can ask for in an interview while still underbidding everyone else.
That's exactly what is going on here.

The Contract World is a real snake pit - all the agencies are the same. They want to make money off you - they don't care about your welfare.

Globally I'm not seeing wages increasing - the trend is more and more that people are buying their A320/737NG Type Ratings and working at questionable operations at subsistence level wages. Hardly an indication of a shortage.

Last year they tried to cancel the commuting contract at my employer. It took 2 letters from the Expat Pilot group and the intervention of the Pilot's Guild to put a stop to this. This is at a company that is expanding and hiring :( :(

I've been hearing about the coming "Pilot Shortage" for 25+ years. It's a Myth.
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Beefitarian
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Post by Beefitarian »

Panama Jack wrote:Could somebody please define "pilot shortage?"
Can't reach the pedals.
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niwre
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by niwre »

Maybe a shortage of jobs for the 200hr wonders but definitely not pilots.
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Re: Re:

Post by Panama Jack »

Eric Janson wrote:
Globally I'm not seeing wages increasing - the trend is more and more that people are buying their A320/737NG Type Ratings and working at questionable operations at subsistence level wages. Hardly an indication of a shortage.
I'm going to play the Devil's advocate position for a moment here, but this is also a symptom of the general economics of the aviation industry; one in which losses are more common than profits and profits, when and where they exist, are marginal. The pressure is on a downward trend in fares.

Employee costs is one of the few areas in which management has any influence over its numerous suppliers. We are seeing competition between the companies elsewhere, although not in Canada and the US where the industry is in decline and there is an oversupply of adequately qualified personnel. Yes, there is an upward trend in salaries in places like Latin America, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific region-- the markets where there is robust growth and companies are searching for experienced people. Packages have topped the $200K USD net per year level working in the left seat on a narrow-body in China.

It is also true that much of the recruitment is through contractor agencies-- many companies which are paying top dollar to get experienced people want to keep themselves at arms length from the temporary staff because once their growth is matured they should be able to get local people at lower cost than expensive and more-difficult to handle foreign staff (doesn't this sound a little like the situation in Canada)?

Don't expect the impressive wages of the 60's, 70's and 80's though. That was almost more of a symptom of a post-Deregulation era when companies cost structures could afford to be inefficient-- any cost increases could be submitted to the Government and the Government would adjust the air fares upwards. The airlines were legally bound and all too happy to comply with this scenario.

Sorry, I don't like it either. I would love nothing better than to net $500K per year and spend 20 days of every month either sitting by a pool or playing with a little airplane, but that is the reality of the industry and it is important that anybody looking at a career in aviation come to grips with that.

Having said that, yes, there are opportunities out there for sure.
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BEFAN5
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by BEFAN5 »

The pilot shortage is something flight schools made up to fill the seats of their little 152's.
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Gino Under
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Gino Under »

Sceptical pilots on an internet forum is hardly the place for accurate opinion on something like a pilot shortage. I suspect opinions expressed here depend on what an individuals role is in the overall aviation picture.
Also based on opinions read, some have kept an eye on the ball and seem to offer reasonable assessments of what's actually going on, others don't. So, it's hard to know unless you read certain industry publications, participate in specific work groups or attend certain industry conferences.
As a trainer, my nose is in it every day and I know I've seen a definite trend.
Sceptics say there is no pilot shortage, there never was and never will be a shortage.
Like many who make these remarks, I too have heard it bandied about for more than 30 years and have realized for the last couple of years that this time things are different. Quite different.

If you fly in a small goldfish bowl like Canadian aviation, then there is only the symptom of a so-called shortage. And, for the most part, the shortage is likely in the 3,000 hour ATPL spectrum.
In North America there are events which have had an adverse affect on pilot numbers. In fact, the fallout of Colgan's Q400 accident at Clarence Center, N.Y. is still being felt throughout the regional airlines.
Increasing retirement age to 65 has now fizzled out and retirements are once again putting pressure on airlines.
There are no appreciable numbers of military pilots entering civilian life to offer their skills and experience to industry.
For now at least, airline failures have slowed. Legacy carriers have started to raid the regionals and the regionals are hurting for crews as they amalgamate, buy out or try to establish more durable business models while their larger partners cancel or simply don't renew agreements.
New regulation which mandates 1500 hours and an ATP for 121 ops are killing the regional airlines pilot pool and applicant pool. Numbers are down so dramatically that a small number or regional airlines now have no pilot applicants on file. Something they've never seen.
Overseas, China is in a state of panic due to the numbers of pilots needed right now and they have taken out their wallets to troll the world for pilots with an ATPL, type rating, and minimal experience on type.
No doubt the pilot hiring musical chairs will go on no matter what economic times prevail. The experts who study pilot hiring and training tell us the musical chairs will go on much longer this time and while it's only my opinion, Canada will undoubtedly be affected because persons like Harper, Raitt and whats-his-name have no concept of what they're doing to the airline industry in this country.
Pilot shortage in Canada?
Not at present. But, that's not to say it isn't coming or won't be one.

I received the same letter from Betts who are probably trying to increase their rapidly declining applicant pool by using a clever marketing spin.
Let's face it, pilots like to talk money.

Gino Under :partyman:

Try reading the article on US Regulatory Reform in this months CAT magazine.
http://issuu.com/halldale/docs/cat_3_2012/1
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Last edited by Gino Under on Tue Jul 03, 2012 10:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
traveller123
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by traveller123 »

Pilot shortage? In Canada? Are you kidding me?

When you need 4000 hours and alot of luck to fill the right seat of a narrow-body aircraft you call this a pilot shortage?

While on the other side of this planet guys with 0 hours have all their training paid by an airline and they have a right seat on a WIDE-body aircraft when they obtain their licences?
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Cough Syrup »

Yeah but they have to live in Krystdnfrkgiuvnfmfkhfkstan or some other crappy country.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Expat »

A pilot shortage is looming, where the airlines and air traffic are growing, mainly in Asia and in the Middle-East. It is not something that is accute now, but all point to this shortage, in a few years. The shortage will be at the airline level, which will not immediately benefit low time prop pilots, but the trickle effect will be felt some years later.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by hawker driver »

If the new Delta Airlines contract is any indication it looks like there is going to be a glut of RJ pilots in the next few years looking for work.

As for the rate of pay for a Navajo Pilot. In 1991 I was making $15,000 per year then which according to the inflation calculator is equal to $ 25,299 in todays dollars.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by andy_mtl »

For a skydive company as a single pilot ona PA-31-310 i m making 15$ a load or 30$ a flying hour....

the only problem is you never know how many hours you make a week
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Gino Under
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Gino Under »

The Scope Clauses that stifled Regionals in the U.S. will be a thing of the past.
It's a new era and ALPA needs to start looking after its members on both sides of that equation.

Gino :drinkers:
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by KAG »

Good post Gino.
As it stands right now in Canada I don't see any signs of a shortage but with retirements on the horizon and the demand over seas who knows. It will be interesting to dig this thread up in say 5 years and see how predictions fared out.
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Eric Janson
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The rest of the story

Post by Eric Janson »

I've found the e-mail in my inbox. There's a second part to it:-

(Bold text added by me for emphasis.)
If you have a moment to read more and are interested…

We’ll immediately delete your reply after extracting the 4 items of info we’ve asked for above (so we won’t reply and please accept our thanks now)

We’re not hiring Pilots right now; we’ll let you know as soon as we have a position that may interest you, but please do send your basic up to date CV/Resume if you’d like to

We know this is a big subject, but for now we’re keeping it simple; without taking up too much of your time we can build a snapshot of up to date Pilot pay rates for 2012

Please be sensible if you do reply; we’re doing this to help everyone achieve the correct pay scale – and none of your identifying details will be associated to your answers.

Please reply!
And an article on the state of the industry in general. Author is quite correct in his assessment.

http://www.f8mag.com/projects/item/glamour-gone

With regard to China:-

The figure of $200,000+/yr is meaningless without a breakdown. It looks like a classic "bait and switch" scam.

These contracts contain various assumptions like overtime that will not happen in reality. There are also various bonuses which they will weasel their way out of. You are on your own for Pensions and a lot of other secondary benefits as well.

At the end of the day these contracts pay about the same as everywhere else. It's a mistake to just look at the money - the total package is the important thing.

The Chinese are not good employers - they do not honour contracts.

The Global trend is downward. Companies can still find people to work on reduced terms. With the current economic crisis (which will only get worse imho) a couple of large Airlines folding will flood the market with experienced Pilots
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Mostly Harmless
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Mostly Harmless »

I guess it depends upon what you see as a shortage....

When I first came on scene in aviation, a person needed 1000 hours or more to get a job flying a single engine Cessna around. It was that or be the chief pilot's son. I see people come out of flight school now and getting jobs flying airplanes right away, not having to spend a couple of years on the ramp/dock. I see people getting their first jobs in the right seat of King Air's and 1900's... jobs that were unthinkable for new pilots when I started out. The airlines, who had hired in the 70's were hiring no one.... (maybe 10 guys a year, not 100)... for almost 20 years. Airlines (AC and WJ) are now taking on people almost every month of the year now. People are making it from job 1 to airline in 5 years now instead of 10. Are you going to walk out of flight school into an airliner in Canada? The answer is no. Is the progression of a career better now than it was in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's? Yes. The hiring situation has improved.

I know it's not all roses and sunshine out there for everyone, but it is better than it was. I know it is tough to do, but look at the situation compared to the last 30 years and not just what you have today... you will see that pilot hiring and movement up the career ladder is better now than it has been since the 1970's.

It's all relative... there is hiring now where there was none before. It is all in how you choose to look at it.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by fish4life »

Mostly harmless I think a big chunk of that can be attributed to the fact that flying that used to be done in single engine cessnas is now being done in navijo's, navijo flying has moved to king airs, king air flying to 705 machines like dash 8's and ATR's
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Gino Under
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Gino Under »

In most conversations on pilot shortages, rarely does the commentator seem to focus on certain realities of the worldwide pilot 'population', and that reality is age. For the given pilot population, we all know time does not stand still. Retirement is a fixed date in time for all of us. No matter what economic realities, ups and downs, or airline failures occur. It should be basic in anyones thought process when looking at or living a professional pilot career.

True. A company may fail and its pilots scatter throughout the industry, but in recent times, if you've noticed, age is having an impact as companies implement cutoff ages thereby ensuring some of those losing their jobs are unable to migrate for employment.
The resupply of younger pilots to the industry has been constantly decreasing for more than 15 years guaranteeing disaster down the road. It's not smoke and mirrors, it's statistical reality. Not everyone affected by a company failure remains in aviation. Nor do they necessarily decide to live in a third world country just to put food on the table.

For now, at least, we may not seem to be facing an immediate pilot shortage in Canada. But one thing's for sure and certain, we are headed in that direction and the debate now may only be about how long it will take for that day of reckoning to arrive. And, it will arrive.

Gino Under :partyman:

http://www.siacargo.com/first_officer.asp
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