Sceptical pilots on an internet forum is hardly the place for accurate opinion on something like a pilot shortage. I suspect opinions expressed here depend on what an individuals role is in the overall aviation picture.
Also based on opinions read, some have kept an eye on the ball and seem to offer reasonable assessments of what's actually going on, others don't. So, it's hard to know unless you read certain industry publications, participate in specific work groups or attend certain industry conferences.
As a trainer, my nose is in it every day and I know I've seen a definite trend.
Sceptics say there is no pilot shortage, there never was and never will be a shortage.
Like many who make these remarks, I too have heard it bandied about for more than 30 years and have realized for the last couple of years that this time things are different. Quite different.
If you fly in a small goldfish bowl like Canadian aviation, then there is only the symptom of a so-called shortage. And, for the most part, the shortage is likely in the 3,000 hour ATPL spectrum.
In North America there are events which have had an adverse affect on pilot numbers. In fact, the fallout of Colgan's Q400 accident at Clarence Center, N.Y. is still being felt throughout the regional airlines.
Increasing retirement age to 65 has now fizzled out and retirements are once again putting pressure on airlines.
There are no appreciable numbers of military pilots entering civilian life to offer their skills and experience to industry.
For now at least, airline failures have slowed. Legacy carriers have started to raid the regionals and the regionals are hurting for crews as they amalgamate, buy out or try to establish more durable business models while their larger partners cancel or simply don't renew agreements.
New regulation which mandates 1500 hours and an ATP for 121 ops are killing the regional airlines pilot pool and applicant pool. Numbers are down so dramatically that a small number or regional airlines now have no pilot applicants on file. Something they've never seen.
Overseas, China is in a state of panic due to the numbers of pilots needed right now and they have taken out their wallets to troll the world for pilots with an ATPL, type rating, and minimal experience on type.
No doubt the pilot hiring musical chairs will go on no matter what economic times prevail. The experts who study pilot hiring and training tell us the musical chairs will go on much longer this time and while it's only my opinion, Canada will undoubtedly be affected because persons like Harper, Raitt and whats-his-name have no concept of what they're doing to the airline industry in this country.
Pilot shortage in Canada?
Not at present. But, that's not to say it isn't coming or won't be one.
I received the same letter from Betts who are probably trying to increase their rapidly declining applicant pool by using a clever marketing spin.
Let's face it, pilots like to talk money.
Gino Under
Try reading the article on US Regulatory Reform in this months CAT magazine.
http://issuu.com/halldale/docs/cat_3_2012/1