A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Discuss topics relating to airlines.

Moderators: North Shore, sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako

BillytheKid
Rank 0
Rank 0
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2024 8:02 am

A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by BillytheKid »

Hi all, just a question for the people with piloting experience. My friend recommended this website to find info.

I am considering flight school but I am only 18 and have concerns about the viability of being a pilot long term.

My mother's Tesla drives itself and it sounds like the big planes these days fly themselves...they even land on their own?!

Anyhow, how does 40 plus year career look?

I was thinking maybe to go into engineering instead and getting ahead of all this computer automation and artificial intelligence..seems like getting a pilot license could be a risky career outside of it being a hobby.

Thanks for the help
---------- ADS -----------
 
porcsord
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by porcsord »

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. -Arthur C Clarke
Self driving cars are infinitely more complex than self flying airplanes. It's not a question of if, but when. Anybody who thinks that single pilot and no pilot airliners are impossible likely has too much skin in the game to see objectively.

40 Year career? You MIGHT be fine. But let's look at the history of technology...

1904 to 1944: Wright Flyer to B-29 Super Fortress. Pretty impressive leap.

1944 to 1984: Super Fortress to GPS Navigation for civil aircraft (to an accuracy of 100m). Again, pretty impressive as this also involves the requirement to have satellites in orbit with atomic clocks on board, which can transmit a time signal down to any position on earth.

1984 to 2024: GPS Navigation to well... still GPS navigation. But computing power is orders of magnitude greater, multiple corporations competing to turn LLM's into general AI, aircraft that can take-off, fly and land themselves, drones being used in warfare to levels of effectiveness previously though unimaginable...etc etc.

2024-2064.... I don't think it's unreasonable to have pilotless airliners. It will start with freighters, probably fedex and then go from there. People who say "single pilot airliners will never be a thing" often believe that in that scenario they would be the pilot flying. They will not. They will be the pilot not flying. A system monitor for the computer. The one thing that will likely slow the progress in aviation is there are no statistics on how often a pilot has done something which has led to NOT having an accident, with or without them knowing it. Right now we only have statistics how when pilots are causal to accidents, and those statistics are not in favour of the pilot.

What does this mean for aspiring pilots? The same as other careers that have been simplified, reduced or made redundant by ever advancing technology: become a niche operator (it will be longer before smaller aircraft have the same capabilities) or keep your eyes and ears open and be ready to evolve with the technology... maybe you will be "piloting" the aircraft from your living room, could be a good thing lifestyle wise. I think you are probably safe for an airline career, but it will not be as glamorous as current airline pilots, and if you ask the majority of current ones, I don't think they will say there is much glamour in it. It is a good job though.

I know this isn't a lot of help, but the unfortunate fact of the matter is: nobody can answer this with any certainty, and when AI or Pilotless airplanes come around it will seem like magic to all us dinosaurs.
---------- ADS -----------
 
CaptDukeNukem
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1997
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:33 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by CaptDukeNukem »

porcsord wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2024 8:42 pm
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. -Arthur C Clarke
Self driving cars are infinitely more complex than self flying airplanes. It's not a question of if, but when. Anybody who thinks that single pilot and no pilot airliners are impossible likely has too much skin in the game to see objectively.

40 Year career? You MIGHT be fine. But let's look at the history of technology...

1904 to 1944: Wright Flyer to B-29 Super Fortress. Pretty impressive leap.

1944 to 1984: Super Fortress to GPS Navigation for civil aircraft (to an accuracy of 100m). Again, pretty impressive as this also involves the requirement to have satellites in orbit with atomic clocks on board, which can transmit a time signal down to any position on earth.

1984 to 2024: GPS Navigation to well... still GPS navigation. But computing power is orders of magnitude greater, multiple corporations competing to turn LLM's into general AI, aircraft that can take-off, fly and land themselves, drones being used in warfare to levels of effectiveness previously though unimaginable...etc etc.

2024-2064.... I don't think it's unreasonable to have pilotless airliners. It will start with freighters, probably fedex and then go from there. People who say "single pilot airliners will never be a thing" often believe that in that scenario they would be the pilot flying. They will not. They will be the pilot not flying. A system monitor for the computer. The one thing that will likely slow the progress in aviation is there are no statistics on how often a pilot has done something which has led to NOT having an accident, with or without them knowing it. Right now we only have statistics how when pilots are causal to accidents, and those statistics are not in favour of the pilot.

What does this mean for aspiring pilots? The same as other careers that have been simplified, reduced or made redundant by ever advancing technology: become a niche operator (it will be longer before smaller aircraft have the same capabilities) or keep your eyes and ears open and be ready to evolve with the technology... maybe you will be "piloting" the aircraft from your living room, could be a good thing lifestyle wise. I think you are probably safe for an airline career, but it will not be as glamorous as current airline pilots, and if you ask the majority of current ones, I don't think they will say there is much glamour in it. It is a good job though.

I know this isn't a lot of help, but the unfortunate fact of the matter is: nobody can answer this with any certainty, and when AI or Pilotless airplanes come around it will seem like magic to all us dinosaurs.
Well written: did you use AI to write it?
---------- ADS -----------
 
porcsord
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by porcsord »

I did not!

But here is the ChatGPT version of it:
The prospect of pilotless commercial flights has been gaining attention due to advancements in technology, but achieving this goal in the near future faces significant challenges.
1. Technological Feasibility

Current advancements: Autonomous flight technologies have made significant strides. Autopilot systems are already extensively used in commercial aviation, capable of handling most of a flight's phases, from cruising to landing.
Emerging technologies: Artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, and machine learning algorithms are improving, making autonomous flight more feasible. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), like drones, already operate autonomously in certain airspaces, demonstrating the potential for pilotless operation.
Future tech developments: The emergence of AI copilots—such as the recent AI system developed by DARPA for military aircraft—suggests a step towards potential full autonomy in commercial aircraft. Additionally, advances in communications systems, collision avoidance, and emergency management technologies could further reduce the need for human intervention.

2. Regulatory and Safety Challenges

Regulatory hurdles: Shifting to pilotless commercial flights would require massive regulatory changes, and these changes take time. Aviation authorities like the FAA (U.S.) and EASA (Europe) have stringent safety requirements that are designed to prevent catastrophic failures, making the approval of fully autonomous planes a slow process.
Safety concerns: Ensuring safety is the top priority in aviation. Autonomous systems need to achieve a near-perfect safety record to gain public and regulatory trust. Any incidents related to pilotless aircraft could greatly hinder progress and public acceptance.

3. Economic and Cost Factors

Cost reductions: Pilotless aircraft could significantly reduce costs for airlines by eliminating pilot salaries, training, and related expenses. This financial incentive drives research and investment into autonomous technologies.
Investment challenges: Transitioning to fully autonomous aircraft would require extensive infrastructure upgrades, new software development, and additional safety measures. These costs could slow the adoption rate, particularly for legacy airlines with aging fleets.

4. Public Perception and Passenger Comfort

Public trust: Passenger confidence is a major obstacle. People generally feel safer knowing that a human is in control during emergencies, even when automation is at play. Overcoming this psychological barrier is likely to be one of the most difficult challenges.
Gradual acceptance: It is more likely that semi-autonomous planes with reduced crew sizes will be the initial step. For instance, flights with a single pilot augmented by AI copilots or remote operators might be implemented first to gradually build passenger confidence.

5. Military vs. Commercial Applications

Military adoption: Autonomous technologies are more likely to advance quickly in military settings, where the focus is on operational efficiency and risk reduction to human life.
Commercial delay: The commercial sector, given its higher stakes in terms of safety and public perception, is likely to adopt a more cautious approach. Pilotless cargo flights could serve as a transitional phase, allowing for extensive testing and improvement of autonomous systems before human passengers are involved.

Conclusion

While pilotless commercial flights could be possible in the long-term (15-20 years), they are unlikely to become the norm in the near future due to regulatory, safety, economic, and public perception barriers. The transition is likely to be gradual, starting with increased automation, single-pilot operations, and pilotless cargo flights.
Edited to add:

Prompt: Will Airlines become pilotless in the near future? please support your argument

And it's scary how close this is to what I wrote... am I the AI? :lol:
---------- ADS -----------
 
fish4life
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2533
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2010 6:32 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by fish4life »

I think a few of the things that will keep pilots in the cockpit for longer are actually going to be the security risks of a hack of the plane.
AI would need to be general intelligence which is something we are still nowhere near technology wise as the current llm’s are great until they are not.
GPS jamming/ spoofing and other forms of attacks on systems will also prolong any change to fully pilotless.
The question might be do you want to do the job if you are alone up front always?
---------- ADS -----------
 
digits_
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 6773
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 2:26 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by digits_ »

There are still planes flying commercially from the 1960s and older. Even if a fully automatic airliner or regional plane comes to the market tomorrow, you'll still have vintage planes that will be flying for 60+ years. You'll be fine.

It's also unlikely 'AI' will be involved in aircraft. It's too inaccurate and frankly unnecessary for aviation applications.
---------- ADS -----------
 
As an AvCanada discussion grows longer:
-the probability of 'entitlement' being mentioned, approaches 1
-one will be accused of using bad airmanship
User avatar
TurkeyFarmYQX
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 111
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:38 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by TurkeyFarmYQX »

After the first fatal crash of a single pilot airliner, the whole movement will be finished.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Victimized by Boeing
RayJr
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 67
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:51 pm

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by RayJr »

TurkeyFarmYQX wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 3:53 pm After the first fatal crash of a single pilot airliner, the whole movement will be finished.
This was my thought also. Maybe not finished, but will set it back a generation probably.
---------- ADS -----------
 
porcsord
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by porcsord »

RayJr wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 4:32 pm
TurkeyFarmYQX wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 3:53 pm After the first fatal crash of a single pilot airliner, the whole movement will be finished.
This was my thought also. Maybe not finished, but will set it back a generation probably.
Sort of like the first crash without a flight Engineer!
---------- ADS -----------
 
dumbbell daddy
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 90
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:27 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by dumbbell daddy »

Interesting discussion. Even with all the job changes and losses, I still enjoy flying and glad I picked this career. Personally, if you dismiss the advance of AI and the impact on our profession, you’re naive. It’s coming, whether we like it or not.

The real interesting thing is going to be when we go from 2 pilots down to 1. You will have to have a person that is essentially Captain qualified. Let’s face it. There’s people at airlines that are FO’s because they can’t pass a Captain upgrade, they’re too afraid to try or they simply choose to stay an FO for lifestyle. This will be one way to increase the standards and weed out the people without the aptitude for the job. Can’t wait to see how unions are going to address this.
---------- ADS -----------
 
nohojob
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 268
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 8:27 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by nohojob »

Will the increase of technology leading to single pilot operation increase the standard ?
It's debatable.
---------- ADS -----------
 
8895
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 201
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:32 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by 8895 »

If the auto throttle on the E2 is any indication on how technology is advancing to not need pilots, I think we’ll be safe for awhile.

In all honesty though, it’s one thing to have a plane capable of taking off, flying from point A to point B, and then landing all on its own, but I’d be very curious to know how long it would take for the background industry infrastructure to change. If ATC isn’t gonna talk to us, how are they going to manipulate the airplanes? Aviation is a pretty standardized industry worldwide, how long until most places are capable of having these new planes operate in its airspace/airports? I see that as a HUGE barrier for the new technology everyone talks about in our industry.

On top of that, I think anyone flying in a multi crew environment can quickly see how even a single pilot flight deck would be a sketchy operation. Humans make mistakes, and having that extra set of eyes to help manage the workload is absolutely essential for minimizing mistakes. Even with the automation currently in aircraft nowadays, they still act up and do funny things, needing to be babysat by the pilot (again, E2 is a perfect example of how an airplane can be so smart yet also so dumb at the same time with all this new tech installed).

I’m obviously bias af but I think anyone just starting out now would be fine tbh
---------- ADS -----------
 
lownslow
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Mar 07, 2008 8:56 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by lownslow »

Freight trains run with full crews. Freight trains.

To me the automation of all vehicles just echoes the predictions of Popular Mechanics in the fifties about how everything would be automated and atomic in the ‘next few years’. The true state of the art could have all been lies to get investment into these projects, or society at large was just on the wrong side of the Dunning-Kruger chart.
---------- ADS -----------
 
yowflyer23
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 188
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2021 6:11 pm

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by yowflyer23 »

It’ll happen but nobody can predict when and how it will go down. My gut tells me it will happen sooner than we think. You can argue all day about the safety aspect or how many obstacles there are, but my pessimistic view is that companies will salivate at the cost savings (even more so as we negotiate pay increases) and it will be pushed into fruition. I’m sure those clauses in ALPA contracts that aircraft need to be operated by two crews will be negotiated away. All you can really do to protect yourself is to be good at your job, get a good seniority number, save lots of money, and develop marketable skills that are transferable to other industries.

How did things go down when flight engineers were eliminated? I know some airlines offered to retrain engineers as pilots. I doubt airlines would be able to absorb all FO’s into existing roles in the event of single pilots ops. Even less so if pilots were completely eliminated with one pilot responsible for monitoring several flights. I’m curious how this would play out.
---------- ADS -----------
 
digits_
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 6773
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 2:26 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by digits_ »

lownslow wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2024 9:24 am Freight trains run with full crews. Freight trains.
If you calculate the cost of having a human scapegoat per tonne transported, and you do the same for pilots, you'll likely see the financial difference there. There's no drive to get a computer to do the freight train run, as the savings will be very minimal, especially if you consider getting rid of a human scapegoat. Hard to blame an employee if it's your machine that screwed up and derailed a train.
---------- ADS -----------
 
As an AvCanada discussion grows longer:
-the probability of 'entitlement' being mentioned, approaches 1
-one will be accused of using bad airmanship
User avatar
‘Bob’
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1017
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:19 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by ‘Bob’ »

fish4life wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 4:10 am I think a few of the things that will keep pilots in the cockpit for longer are actually going to be the security risks of a hack of the plane.
AI would need to be general intelligence which is something we are still nowhere near technology wise as the current llm’s are great until they are not.
GPS jamming/ spoofing and other forms of attacks on systems will also prolong any change to fully pilotless.
The question might be do you want to do the job if you are alone up front always?
I think this is really funny because most pilots today would be screwed if they lost or were lead astray by jammed/spoofed GPS.

If anything, AI is going to detect it sooner and have a navigation solution much faster and better than a human who now has to remember how to tune a VOR or look at a map.
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
‘Bob’
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1017
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:19 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by ‘Bob’ »

TurkeyFarmYQX wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 3:53 pm After the first fatal crash of a single pilot airliner, the whole movement will be finished.
Doubtful.

After all… how many crashes of manned aircraft have we seen?
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
‘Bob’
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1017
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:19 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by ‘Bob’ »

lownslow wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2024 9:24 am Freight trains run with full crews. Freight trains.

To me the automation of all vehicles just echoes the predictions of Popular Mechanics in the fifties about how everything would be automated and atomic in the ‘next few years’. The true state of the art could have all been lies to get investment into these projects, or society at large was just on the wrong side of the Dunning-Kruger chart.
Freight trains run with full crews because a single crewman on one train couldn’t set enough hand brakes on the grade above Lac Megantic.

The Sky Train has been running driverless for almost 40 years now with track occupancy much higher than freight trains have not to mention being in direct proximity to people.
---------- ADS -----------
 
porcsord
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by porcsord »

fish4life wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 4:10 am GPS jamming/ spoofing
Remember, we've landed a car (rover) on another planet, with a sky crane... without a pilot or GPS and sent the footage back in HD... which is fucking nuts.

Just saying. crazier things have been done than no GPS navigation for computers.
---------- ADS -----------
 
BigQ
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 311
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:41 pm
Location: YUL-ish

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by BigQ »

Marketable skills that are not easily automatable will be the safety net for many. Gone are the days of a single job and single employer from 25 to 65. The gig economy and the pursuit of quality of life vs big bank account will become the norm.

The robots are coming, yes, but it's fairly easy to see and avoid the repercussions when you have a high enough IQ to be able to choose between engineer and pilot. I feel bad for anyone with a sub 90 IQ in 20 years.
---------- ADS -----------
 
just clearing the trees
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 274
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:42 pm

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by just clearing the trees »

I think it's pretty difficult to accurately predict where technology will be in 40 years. It's also hard to say what the traveling public's appetite would be for flying in an aircraft without a trained individual with "skin in the game" with regards to safe completion of the flight. Definitely cause for concern if you're looking to get started now, but my gut instinct is that you'll probably be ok. Also, this entire discussion is from the viewpoint of airliners. If the time horizon we're looking at is only 40 years, I think there will still be plenty of flying jobs out there for humans. It will be a much longer time after airliners go pilotless that aircraft will be doing the kinds of work I do without a human at the controls. I think the further you are from airline type flying, the safer you'll be.
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
Arnie Pye
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 267
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:54 pm

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by Arnie Pye »

The public didn't abandon self driving cars after the first accident. While single pilot planes might seem inevitable, aviation moves slowly and airframes are designed to last a lot longer than your average car.

You have to remember how long it takes to design and build a new airplane. Boeing started the 777X upgrade in 2013 and as of today there is not a single one in service and the official launch is further delayed. That's just a new version of an old plane. Same with the MAX. It's a lipstick upgrade of an aircraft that was designed in the 1960's.

Currently there are no clean sheet designs of a single pilot plane. Airbus just updated their narrow body planes and Boeing hasn't really started a 737 replacement. Once a single pilot plane is designed I would assume that the regulatory testing and approval would be more rigorous and thorough than the current testing for say the 777X or the 737MAX. Then there's approval from each country outside of the US or the EU. In the pre MAX days, this might have been a rubber stamp process but now there may be more scrutiny.

I could see the design and certification of a new single pilot design taking 15 years or so from the start to the first delivery maybe even longer. Probably another 5-10 years before there are significant numbers of that plane in the market. In the meantime, the rest of the fleet at an airline will still require two crew. As long as pilots keep accepting world class contracts there will be fewer people entering this profession and the demand for an airline pilot should remain strong enough to make a career out of it.
---------- ADS -----------
 
TG
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2102
Joined: Sun Feb 22, 2004 11:32 am
Location: Around

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by TG »

On a side note, aviation is not just about Airliners and one of the aircraft I fly for a living was built in 1943 (Rebuilt a few times since :mrgreen: )
---------- ADS -----------
 
digits_
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 6773
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 2:26 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by digits_ »

Arnie Pye wrote: Sun Oct 27, 2024 8:45 am The public didn't abandon self driving cars after the first accident. While single pilot planes might seem inevitable, aviation moves slowly and airframes are designed to last a lot longer than your average car.

You have to remember how long it takes to design and build a new airplane. Boeing started the 777X upgrade in 2013 and as of today there is not a single one in service and the official launch is further delayed. That's just a new version of an old plane. Same with the MAX. It's a lipstick upgrade of an aircraft that was designed in the 1960's.

Currently there are no clean sheet designs of a single pilot plane. Airbus just updated their narrow body planes and Boeing hasn't really started a 737 replacement. Once a single pilot plane is designed I would assume that the regulatory testing and approval would be more rigorous and thorough than the current testing for say the 777X or the 737MAX. Then there's approval from each country outside of the US or the EU. In the pre MAX days, this might have been a rubber stamp process but now there may be more scrutiny.

I could see the design and certification of a new single pilot design taking 15 years or so from the start to the first delivery maybe even longer. Probably another 5-10 years before there are significant numbers of that plane in the market. In the meantime, the rest of the fleet at an airline will still require two crew. As long as pilots keep accepting world class contracts there will be fewer people entering this profession and the demand for an airline pilot should remain strong enough to make a career out of it.
Another thing to note is that single pilot certification doesn't mean single pilot operation. Look at how many single pilot king airs and metros are being operated 2 crew anyway. Due to customer contract demands, extra benefits the regulator provides (eg no autopilot required for ifr flight) or just the safety side of things (medevac at night)
---------- ADS -----------
 
As an AvCanada discussion grows longer:
-the probability of 'entitlement' being mentioned, approaches 1
-one will be accused of using bad airmanship
lownslow
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Mar 07, 2008 8:56 am

Re: A potential career with all the automation & artificial intelligence coming out

Post by lownslow »

What would the maintenance schedule be like on a pilotless airliner? What are the regulatory hurdles to getting approval to launch the robot jet with something on MEL? What will it cost to qualify and employ whatever specialists maintain these things and will they have to be available at all stations?
---------- ADS -----------
 
Post Reply

Return to “General Airline Industry Comments”