UK Variant of covid is 55 percent more lethal

[montado]

https://nationalpost.com/news/study-fin ... o-creep-up

Are we doing enough? Should we lockdown more with these more deadly variants about to cause a third wave?

[frosti]

The key note:

The absolute risk of death remained low, increasing, for example, from 0.6 to 0.9 per cent, for 55- to 69-year-old males.

“We don’t want this 55 per cent number to scare people into thinking ‘this is a big risk for me,’” unless people are elderly or otherwise very sick, said lead author Nicholas Davies, an epidemiologist with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

[Inverted2]

People aren’t scared enough. Release the “variants”.

[montado]

The key note:

The absolute risk of death remained low, increasing, for example, from 0.6 to 0.9 per cent, for 55- to 69-year-old males.

“We don’t want this 55 per cent number to scare people into thinking ‘this is a big risk for me,’” unless people are elderly or otherwise very sick, said lead author Nicholas Davies, an epidemiologist with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

That is not a key note. The fact is you are 55 percent more likely to die with the UK variant than the original one.

If anyone was focused on absolute risk of death this would be looked at more like influenza.

Covid 1 was about twice as bad as the flu and look at the reaction. If covid UK is 2.5x as bad as the flu, don't you think this is concerning. You can't just pass this off as insignificant. This will be thousands of more deaths compared to the original strain. It's definitely not statistically insignificant. Even once we receive vaccines the rest of the world may be behind and some places may be a couple years away from significant vaccination levels.

[frosti]

This will be thousands of more deaths compared to the original strain.

So.

Do you care about this?

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... d-pandemic

Every year, around 9 million people die of hunger, according to the international relief agency Mercy Corps. That's more than the death toll of AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined. Nevertheless, convincing countries — many of which are battling massive challenges at home — to increase spending on foreign aid during this crisis will be a challenge. Lowcock, however, believes the cost of doing nothing will be even higher.

Over 9 Million die every year, which is only about to grow, and you don't care.

Stop pretending like you care about people, because you don't. You are just like every other virtue signaller coming out of the wood work preaching your fear mongering nonsense.

[shamrock104]

Not really a big concern as Justin is almost done with the vaccine rollout.

[lhalliday]

With the most vulnerable people now vaccinated the death rate is noise-level. Here in B.C., at least. Noise level plus 55% is still noise level. No further action required.

...laura

[“Bob”]

55% higher than almost nothing is still almost nothing.

[ReserveTank]

55% higher than almost nothing is still almost nothing.

I entered 0.058% + 55% and even my Ti-84 let me know it is insignificant. Texas FTW as usual.

[RedAndWhiteBaron]

55% higher than almost nothing is still almost nothing.

I entered 0.058% + 55% and even my Ti-84 let me know it is insignificant. Texas FTW as usual.

I can't trust anybody who still uses a TI-84.

I use an E6-B. Get with the times

[ReserveTank]

55% higher than almost nothing is still almost nothing.

I entered 0.058% + 55% and even my Ti-84 let me know it is insignificant. Texas FTW as usual.

I can't trust anybody who still uses a TI-84.

I use an E6-B. Get with the times

E6-B is probably better, considering the floating zeroes.

[co-joe]

55% higher than almost nothing is still almost nothing.

I entered 0.058% + 55% and even my Ti-84 let me know it is insignificant. Texas FTW as usual.

According to this page, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality the mortality rate in Canada is 2.4%, so 55% more than that is a whopping 3.72%?

[montado]

That is a huge number statically. Imagine a hockey player scored 55 percent more goals in a season...

55 percent more deaths would mean in Canada over 10k more deaths.

In America it would mean an extra 250k deaths.

Also it would probably lead to more deaths indirectly because if we said you also account for extra ICU beds needed we would have overflowing hospitals much worse than the lack of full hospitals we currently have.

I can't take the news seriously anymore but 55 percent is a huge figure and people just shrug shoulders. At this point I question whether it's fear mongering because we aren't really seeing the damage that should come with a more deadly strain.

[pelmet]

While most of us probably wouldn't have to worry about dying, what are the chances of becoming a so-called longhauler. Something that would be preferable to avoid.

[2R]

https://apnews.com/article/brazil-rio-d ... 16796b6e60

Andre Penner)
“We have surpassed levels never imagined for a country with a public health care system, a history of efficient immunization campaigns and health workers who are second to none in the world,” Nicolelis said. “The next stage is the health system collapse.”

The system is already buckling, with almost all states’ intensive care units near or at capacity. Dr. José Antônio Curiati, a supervisor at Sao Paulo’s Hospital das Clinicas, the biggest hospital complex in Latin America, said its beds are full, but patients keep arriving. The city’s oxygen supply isn’t guaranteed, and stocks of sedatives required for intubation in intensive care units will soon run out.

Looks like the Brazilian variant is out of control . 100,000 infections a day and 4,000 deaths a day with no end in sight .

[tsgarp]

After seeing how ‘COVID’ cases and deaths were accounted here in North America, I have less than absolute trust in how this is being reported.

Also, if we’re naming variants after their country of origin, why not the virus itself: The Brazilian variant of the China virus.

[Inverted2]

After seeing how ‘COVID’ cases and deaths were accounted here in North America, I have less than absolute trust in how this is being reported.

Also, if we’re naming variants after their country of origin, why not the virus itself: The Brazilian variant of the China virus.

I call it Kung Pow Sicken or the Wu Flu.

[“Bob”]

That is a huge number statically. Imagine a hockey player scored 55 percent more goals in a season..

Happens all the time. Usually the guy is a goon that nobody pays attention to until the gloves come off.

And that is the problem with all of these statistics. They have low sample sizes and are skewed with weasel words and outright misrepresentation.

In the early days of the pandemic, deaths were skyrocketing at exponential rates. Five died yesterday, 15 today.

But the death rates plateaued and even shrunk so they focused on cases instead.

Cases plateaued as well and have been on a roller coaster.

So then it was long haullers. You know those people who can’t shake a cough? Are always tired? Maybe you’re one of them? Any other year it probably would just be a nasal drip and undiagnosed sleep apnea. Or maybe a pack a day of smokes. But because it’s COVID, all of a sudden it’s a big thing.

On the CBC they had to drive all the way to Squamish from Vancouver to find a tired 40 year old.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5966694

Same with so called “lung scarring”. I’m sorry but when did scars become anything worse than tattoos with better stories? What exactly does lung scarring even mean? A more precise medical term would be loss of lung or respiratory capacity. Why don’t they use that term if the implications are anything other than benign? Because it sounds scary.

Now that we are bored of all that it is down to the variants. And the low sample sizes and lack of a baseline (are these people young, old, healthy, unhealthy?) yet again allow for sensationalism.

Like how I don’t really believe that the next WWE pay per view is going to be “the best one ever”, I get tired of all this fear mongering that is mainly to boost readership and sell advertising than to provide us with a view of what’s really going on.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[mbav8r]

That is a huge number statically. Imagine a hockey player scored 55 percent more goals in a season..

Happens all the time. Usually the guy is a goon that nobody pays attention to until the gloves come off.

And that is the problem with all of these statistics. They have low sample sizes and are skewed with weasel words and outright misrepresentation.

In the early days of the pandemic, deaths were skyrocketing at exponential rates. Five died yesterday, 15 today.

But the death rates plateaued and even shrunk so they focused on cases instead.

Cases plateaued as well and have been on a roller coaster.

So then it was long haullers. You know those people who can’t shake a cough? Are always tired? Maybe you’re one of them? Any other year it probably would just be a nasal drip and undiagnosed sleep apnea. Or maybe a pack a day of smokes. But because it’s COVID, all of a sudden it’s a big thing.

On the CBC they had to drive all the way to Squamish from Vancouver to find a tired 40 year old.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5966694

Same with so called “lung scarring”. I’m sorry but when did scars become anything worse than tattoos with better stories? What exactly does lung scarring even mean? A more precise medical term would be loss of lung or respiratory capacity. Why don’t they use that term if the implications are anything other than benign? Because it sounds scary.

Now that we are bored of all that it is down to the variants. And the low sample sizes and lack of a baseline (are these people young, old, healthy, unhealthy?) yet again allow for sensationalism.

Like how I don’t really believe that the next WWE pay per view is going to be “the best one ever”, I get tired of all this fear mongering that is mainly to boost readership and sell advertising than to provide us with a view of what’s really going on.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Idiot!

[mbav8r]

After seeing how ‘COVID’ cases and deaths were accounted here in North America, I have less than absolute trust in how this is being reported.

Also, if we’re naming variants after their country of origin, why not the virus itself: The Brazilian variant of the China virus.

Bigger idiot!

[ReserveTank]

55% higher than almost nothing is still almost nothing.

I entered 0.058% + 55% and even my Ti-84 let me know it is insignificant. Texas FTW as usual.

According to this page, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality the mortality rate in Canada is 2.4%, so 55% more than that is a whopping 3.72%?

They are using deaths per confirmed cases, which is a disingenuous method. No other diseases, including deadly seasonal viruses like influenza are counted in this manner.

Essentially, they changed n and N to produce the highest percentage possible. Anyone that has taken basic statistics knows that this is not an honest method of sampling. It's results manipulation, which is unethical.

22,000 Canadians died of COVID (this includes cases that were not directly attributed to COVID, btw)
Population of Canada is about 37500000

Divide the two:

0.058% chance
That is the correct math.

p.s. Any sampling from the above renders statistical insignificance.

[montado]

Your math assumes every Canadian has had the disease and been infected with covid?

I prefer the IFR... actual infection vs deaths... and not any death with covid, deaths because of covid.

CDC has a guesstimate of 0.5 percent average. Less for young people, and higher for older people. We will never know how many of the 22k deaths in Canada were actually due to covid. Toronto public health was doubling down in the beginning and even claimed publicly on Twitter a death with covid was a death from covid.

EBE7511F-B9E1-4222-836A-F1EB8A81328C.jpeg (145.41 KiB) Viewed 2689 times

[ReserveTank]

Your math assumes every Canadian has had the disease and been infected with covid?

I prefer the IFR... actual infection vs deaths... and not any death with covid, deaths because of covid.

CDC has a guesstimate of 0.5 percent average. Less for young people, and higher for older people. We will never know how many of the 22k deaths in Canada were actually due to covid. Toronto public health was doubling down in the beginning and even claimed publicly on Twitter a death with covid was a death from covid.
EBE7511F-B9E1-4222-836A-F1EB8A81328C.jpeg

No. If every Canadian is at risk, then the entire population of Canada must be N. 22000 is the reported* death count in Canada. This means that any Canadian has a 0.058% chance of death. That's far from a guess. It's math with their (official) numbers. This also means we firmly threw away our future prosperity for a 0.058% chance. It's as stupid as betting your home at a craps table.

Also, using the infection count as N is subject to statistical manipulation. Using official guidance, someone without covid but with cold-like symptoms will be counted as a confirmed case. Additionally, PCR testing has been associated with many false results.

They are just counting on everyone going along with the numbers and not bothering to do math or look at the source of data.


*You won't know actual deaths due to covid because they are encouraged to report non-covid deaths as covid deaths. Subtracting deaths not solely from covid, n decreases, which would show less risk for Canadians.

[mbav8r]

Your math assumes every Canadian has had the disease and been infected with covid?

I prefer the IFR... actual infection vs deaths... and not any death with covid, deaths because of covid.

CDC has a guesstimate of 0.5 percent average. Less for young people, and higher for older people. We will never know how many of the 22k deaths in Canada were actually due to covid. Toronto public health was doubling down in the beginning and even claimed publicly on Twitter a death with covid was a death from covid.
EBE7511F-B9E1-4222-836A-F1EB8A81328C.jpeg

No. If every Canadian is at risk, then the entire population of Canada must be N. 22000 is the reported* death count in Canada. This means that any Canadian has a 0.058% chance of death. That's far from a guess. It's math with their (official) numbers. This also means we firmly threw away our future prosperity for a 0.058% chance. It's as stupid as betting your home at a craps table.

Also, using the infection count as N is subject to statistical manipulation. Using official guidance, someone without covid but with cold-like symptoms will be counted as a confirmed case. Additionally, PCR testing has been associated with many false results.

They are just counting on everyone going along with the numbers and not bothering to do math or look at the source of data.


*You won't know actual deaths due to covid because they are encouraged to report non-covid deaths as covid deaths. Subtracting deaths not solely from covid, n decreases, which would show less risk for Canadians.

I find your broken record argument disingenuous, you claim a 0.058% chance of dying from Covid as your argument for not taking the measures that have been taken without acknowledging that it would have been much worse. How much worse? Who knows but without a doubt it would have been and I know the people making the decisions had more information than you to make a proper mathematical calculation.
To not do anything to prevent collapse of the healthcare system would have been a roll of the dice without knowing the true loss, betting an unknown amount at the craps table is not a good strategy for a gambler, less so when betting on actual lives.

[ReserveTank]

I find your broken record argument disingenuous, you claim a 0.058% chance of dying from Covid as your argument...

You're arguing with mathematics now. That takes some mental gymnastics.
The entire population of Canada is at risk, yes or no?
Statistical insignificance is not an opinion. That's why they need to drill the narrative into your head 24/7.

had more information than you

The math is from their numbers. You arguing with their math now? You arguing what the population of Canada is?

To not do anything to prevent collapse of the healthcare system

You just come off the boat or something? Our healthcare system has been in shambles for a very long time. Overcrowded every flu season, "nonessential" procedures have been waitlisted.

2 weeks to flatten the curve. It's been a year. They had a year to erect facilities. Many countries did this in short order.

The willful suspension of disbelief. By the time you realize you've been swindled, it'll be far too late.



Anyone who wants to get back to work should be contacting your MPs. Encourage them to pull EI from under everyone in the industry. Encourage them to deny sector-specific support. Open a dialogue about easing TFW restrictions. The only way back to work is to be hungry and get out of the welfare trap.