It's Time

[CaptDukeNukem]

Just for fun, since these things usually come from way ‘left field’….what about a merger of Jazz and Porter? Step back to the BiG Pic for a second. From a company perspective. Lots of pilots. Jazz just sold Falko and sitting on a mountain of cash. Porter E2’s ready and waiting to be flown. Deluces sold out before(Austin). Just theorizing, so ‘ never say never’. Happy Sunday and good luck with or without a union drive. We are all stronger a ONE.
G

Nope this isn’t happening ever. Deluce’s have a hardon for screwing AC over and are continuing to enjoy doing it. Chorus and their jazz baby already have all the reasons to not merge. The Porter family is more than happy running full E2 loads across the country and the south US.

We don’t need underpowered E1s and clapped out RJs

[rudder]

Just for fun, since these things usually come from way ‘left field’….what about a merger of Jazz and Porter? Step back to the BiG Pic for a second. From a company perspective. Lots of pilots. Jazz just sold Falko and sitting on a mountain of cash. Porter E2’s ready and waiting to be flown. Deluces sold out before(Austin). Just theorizing, so ‘ never say never’. Happy Sunday and good luck with or without a union drive. We are all stronger a ONE.
G

Nope this isn’t happening ever. Deluce’s have a hardon for screwing AC over and are continuing to enjoy doing it. Chorus and their jazz baby already have all the reasons to not merge. The Porter family is more than happy running full E2 loads across the country and the south US.

We don’t need underpowered E1s and clapped out RJs

I am pretty certain there is change of control language in the AC/CHR CPA. So, any new owner (other than AC) would be subject to AC approval or forfeit of the CPA.

As is pointed out above, there is not much of an asset base at Jazz (aging fleet/no fleet renewal).

Jazz is on the path to 2035. Other than an AC purchase, the only potential suitor I could see is EIC (subject to AC approval).

[CaptDukeNukem]

Just for fun, since these things usually come from way ‘left field’….what about a merger of Jazz and Porter? Step back to the BiG Pic for a second. From a company perspective. Lots of pilots. Jazz just sold Falko and sitting on a mountain of cash. Porter E2’s ready and waiting to be flown. Deluces sold out before(Austin). Just theorizing, so ‘ never say never’. Happy Sunday and good luck with or without a union drive. We are all stronger a ONE.
G

Nope this isn’t happening ever. Deluce’s have a hardon for screwing AC over and are continuing to enjoy doing it. Chorus and their jazz baby already have all the reasons to not merge. The Porter family is more than happy running full E2 loads across the country and the south US.

We don’t need underpowered E1s and clapped out RJs

I am pretty certain there is change of control language in the AC/CHR CPA. So, any new owner (other than AC) would be subject to AC approval or forfeit of the CPA.

As is pointed out above, there is not much of an asset base at Jazz (aging fleet/no fleet renewal).

Jazz is on the path to 2035. Other than an AC purchase, the only potential suitor I could see is EIC (subject to AC approval).

Funny you mention this. I think EIC actually had the regional fleet that would be required to fly AC routes more efficiently than what jazz can do. Move some airplanes around and bob’s your uncle

[goingnowherefast]

Jazz has no use for the 195e2 under scope. So then what would they do with them? They'd be competing with their only customer, AC.

The only way this scenario that's plausible is for the Q400 operation to merge with Jazz and the e2 operation to merge with AC. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it is improbable.

I really doubt they'd sell off just the Q400 side, as that still leaves the competitor intact.

Nobody here actually knows what the financials look like at Porter. If there's any portion that is a liability, be sure that will be offloaded somewhere/somehow. It's worth more as an complete operation, complete with crew. Meaning merger protection under the ALPA framework should be highly desired by Porter pilots. Especially during a rapid expansion that isn't without risk.

[cdnavater]

Just for fun, since these things usually come from way ‘left field’….what about a merger of Jazz and Porter? Step back to the BiG Pic for a second. From a company perspective. Lots of pilots. Jazz just sold Falko and sitting on a mountain of cash. Porter E2’s ready and waiting to be flown. Deluces sold out before(Austin). Just theorizing, so ‘ never say never’. Happy Sunday and good luck with or without a union drive. We are all stronger a ONE.
G

What if they used the pile of cash to buy Air Transat and cancel the feeder agreement with Porter and did it themselves?

[Realitychex]

Life is good with industry low utilization, long ASL's, fat block times and leisurely RON's, all resulting in great OTP.

Easy peasy. Everyone's happy. Except the accountants.

This won't last. Operating a fleet of 42 (currently), near new, high capital cost jets under 7hrs per tail per day, (and I've seen plenty sub 6hr days in recent weeks) with as many as 11 tails parked daily is not economically sustainable.

What do things look like when the operation has to run as efficiently as the other carriers in the marketplace? What do those conditions look like?

That's what I'd be thinking about.

A friend of mine's son left the Porter E2 operation after 6 months. He reports that 5 of 20 in the current class are ex Porter E2 pilots.

“High capital cost jets”…. Elaborate

The E2's are a high capital cost aircraft.

Porter utilization, as tracked by any number of public websites, (some require a subcription), is shockingly low. Airborne hours per tail per day have averaged 6hrs 10 mins since Oct 16th. Over the past 7 days, it's been 5hrs 54 mins. That's the sort of utilization Allegiant used to get when they operated a fleet of fully owned MD80's 20 years ago.

Yesterday, Nov 1, a Friday, (a peak day), Porter managed 84 sectors with its fleet of 42 C-registered E2's, with an asl of 1,326 miles and 5 hrs 53 mins of airborne utilization. Compare that to Flair, who managed 9hrs 26 mins per tail with an ASL of 1,113 miles and 75 sectors with their fleet of 20 aircraft. Flair's utilization is also low for them; it's usually about 1hr 20 min higher.

With this calculated operational data, with data provided by Embraer on fuel burn at the current price of 98.2 cents a liter, (Air Canada's avg fuel price in 3Q), and Embraer's data on E2 maintenance cost per hour, together with knowledge of monthly lease rates based on the known cost of the E2's, (US$30.5m with escalators), together with the cost of the additional cash raised in the sale / lease back transactions, (us$275,000 per tail per month), their DoC's can be closely estimated.

When one considers the DoC's represented 40.2% of AC's fully allocated 3Q 2024 operating expenses, (and interest payments are NOT included in operating expenses), simple extrapolation allows one to come up with a pretty good idea of Porter's operating costs, (and compare them to Flair).

So what does this all mean, (with the numbers below in C$):

On Friday Nov 1, Porter's fully allocated CASM was likely around 19.79 cents per mile with a cost per hour of about $11,776.79.

Flair's fully allocated CASM was likely around 15.14 cents per mile with a cost per hour of about $12,668.31.

So, yes, as Porter has always claimed, and few would disagree with, their trip costs are indeed lower.

But where it matters, their unit costs are 30.7% higher at 19.79 cents a mile vs 15.14 cents a mile at Flair. Stage length adjust this to Porter's higher ASL and the gap is even wider; probably in the order of 35%.

Porter's fully allocated cost per each of the 11,088 seats they operated yesterday, (excluding interest expense and all taxes, fees and flow through charges), was about $262.45 vs $168.61 at Flair, a whopping 55.7% difference.

So yes. The E2 is a high capital cost, and high cost aircraft. It needs big loads AND big yields to make the numbers work.

Are Porter's yields dramatically higher than than Flair? Absolutely, even though 38% of Porter's ASM's overlapped with Flair yesterday,

But higher than both AC and WJ? I doubt it.

[CaptDukeNukem]

Just for fun, since these things usually come from way ‘left field’….what about a merger of Jazz and Porter? Step back to the BiG Pic for a second. From a company perspective. Lots of pilots. Jazz just sold Falko and sitting on a mountain of cash. Porter E2’s ready and waiting to be flown. Deluces sold out before(Austin). Just theorizing, so ‘ never say never’. Happy Sunday and good luck with or without a union drive. We are all stronger a ONE.
G

What if they used the pile of cash to buy Air Transat and cancel the feeder agreement with Porter and did it themselves?

What if they used the pile of cash they’re in and continued status quo. Sometimes the sidelines are the best to be.

Or maybe it’s a little more complex, such as IOSA requirements to join a larger consortium of airlines. Hard to say which day the dice will roll. I will however personally state I think the deluces are aviation geniuses

[CaptDukeNukem]

Life is good with industry low utilization, long ASL's, fat block times and leisurely RON's, all resulting in great OTP.

Easy peasy. Everyone's happy. Except the accountants.

This won't last. Operating a fleet of 42 (currently), near new, high capital cost jets under 7hrs per tail per day, (and I've seen plenty sub 6hr days in recent weeks) with as many as 11 tails parked daily is not economically sustainable.

What do things look like when the operation has to run as efficiently as the other carriers in the marketplace? What do those conditions look like?

That's what I'd be thinking about.

A friend of mine's son left the Porter E2 operation after 6 months. He reports that 5 of 20 in the current class are ex Porter E2 pilots.

“High capital cost jets”…. Elaborate

The E2's are a high capital cost aircraft.

Porter utilization, as tracked by any number of public websites, (some require a subcription), is shockingly low. Airborne hours per tail per day have averaged 6hrs 10 mins since Oct 16th. Over the past 7 days, it's been 5hrs 54 mins. That's the sort of utilization Allegiant used to get when they operated a fleet of fully owned MD80's 20 years ago.

Yesterday, Nov 1, a Friday, (a peak day), Porter managed 84 sectors with its fleet of 42 C-registered E2's, with an asl of 1,326 miles and 5 hrs 53 mins of airborne utilization. Compare that to Flair, who managed 9hrs 26 mins per tail with an ASL of 1,113 miles and 75 sectors with their fleet of 20 aircraft. Flair's utilization is also low for them; it's usually about 1hr 20 min higher.

With this calculated operational data, with data provided by Embraer on fuel burn at the current price of 98.2 cents a liter, (Air Canada's avg fuel price in 3Q), and Embraer's data on E2 maintenance cost per hour, together with knowledge of monthly lease rates based on the known cost of the E2's, (US$30.5m with escalators), together with the cost of the additional cash raised in the sale / lease back transactions, their DoC's can be closely estimated.

When one considers the DoC's represented 40.2% of AC's fully allocated 3Q 2024 operating expenses, (and interest payments are NOT included in operating expenses), simple extrapolation allows one to come up with a pretty good idea of Porter's operating costs, (and compare them to Flair).

So what does this all mean:

On Friday Nov 1, Porter's fully allocated CASM was likely around 19.79 cents per mile with a cost per hour of about $11,776.79.

Flair's fully allocated CASM was likely around 15.14 cents per mile with a cost per hour of about $12,668.31.

So, yes, as Porter has always claimed, and few would disagree with, their trip costs are lower.

But where it matters, their unit costs are 30.7% higher.

Porter's fully allocated cost per each of the 11,088 seats they operated yesterday, (excluding interest expense and all taxes, fees and flow through charges), was about $262.45 vs $168.61 at Flair, a whopping 55.7% difference.

So yes. The E2 is a high capital cost, and high cost aircraft. It needs big loads AND big yields to make the numbers work.

Are Porter's yields dramatically higher than than Flair? Absolutely, even though 38% of Porter's ASM's overlapped with Flair yesterday, But higher than both AC and WJ? I doubt it.

Post some actual stuff instead of typing random numbers. You must have spread sheets and data that supports all of this. I’m honestly tired looking at avcanada numbers. Throw in a pie chart FFS.

Screenshot them if you aren’t able to post the pdf directly. It’s avcanada, no one will know who you are.

It’s time for realitychex to actually be checked

[Mac08]

“High capital cost jets”…. Elaborate

The E2's are a high capital cost aircraft.

Porter utilization, as tracked by any number of public websites, (some require a subcription), is shockingly low. Airborne hours per tail per day have averaged 6hrs 10 mins since Oct 16th. Over the past 7 days, it's been 5hrs 54 mins. That's the sort of utilization Allegiant used to get when they operated a fleet of fully owned MD80's 20 years ago.

Yesterday, Nov 1, a Friday, (a peak day), Porter managed 84 sectors with its fleet of 42 C-registered E2's, with an asl of 1,326 miles and 5 hrs 53 mins of airborne utilization. Compare that to Flair, who managed 9hrs 26 mins per tail with an ASL of 1,113 miles and 75 sectors with their fleet of 20 aircraft. Flair's utilization is also low for them; it's usually about 1hr 20 min higher.

With this calculated operational data, with data provided by Embraer on fuel burn at the current price of 98.2 cents a liter, (Air Canada's avg fuel price in 3Q), and Embraer's data on E2 maintenance cost per hour, together with knowledge of monthly lease rates based on the known cost of the E2's, (US$30.5m with escalators), together with the cost of the additional cash raised in the sale / lease back transactions, their DoC's can be closely estimated.

When one considers the DoC's represented 40.2% of AC's fully allocated 3Q 2024 operating expenses, (and interest payments are NOT included in operating expenses), simple extrapolation allows one to come up with a pretty good idea of Porter's operating costs, (and compare them to Flair).

So what does this all mean:

On Friday Nov 1, Porter's fully allocated CASM was likely around 19.79 cents per mile with a cost per hour of about $11,776.79.

Flair's fully allocated CASM was likely around 15.14 cents per mile with a cost per hour of about $12,668.31.

So, yes, as Porter has always claimed, and few would disagree with, their trip costs are lower.

But where it matters, their unit costs are 30.7% higher.

Porter's fully allocated cost per each of the 11,088 seats they operated yesterday, (excluding interest expense and all taxes, fees and flow through charges), was about $262.45 vs $168.61 at Flair, a whopping 55.7% difference.

So yes. The E2 is a high capital cost, and high cost aircraft. It needs big loads AND big yields to make the numbers work.

Are Porter's yields dramatically higher than than Flair? Absolutely, even though 38% of Porter's ASM's overlapped with Flair yesterday, But higher than both AC and WJ? I doubt it.

Post some actual stuff instead of typing random numbers. You must have spread sheets and data that supports all of this. I’m honestly tired looking at avcanada numbers. Throw in a pie chart FFS.

Screenshot them if you aren’t able to post the pdf directly. It’s avcanada, no one will know who you are.

It’s time for realitychex to actually be checked

Everyone already knows who he is... Mark Hill, aka the Westjet executive who got caught like a moron getting Air Canada flight loads in the early days of Westjet.

15+ years of predicting Porters downfall and he's still crying like a baby it hasn't happened yet.

[Speedbrakes]

Everyone already knows who he is... Mark Hill, aka the Westjet executive who got caught like a moron getting Air Canada flight loads in the early days of Westjet.

15+ years of predicting Porters downfall and he's still crying like a baby it hasn't happened yet.

I was skeptical. So googled the name. From a linkedIn page with the name Mark Hill:

Mark Hill

LCC/ULCC Industry Consultant - Co-founder, WestJet Airlines, Provider of capital to startup airlines with viable business plans.
Scottsdale, Arizona, United States Contact Info


Self Employed

University of Victoria

About
Experienced analyst with a demonstrated history of both strategic planning and working in the LCC / ULCC space.

Strong business development skills in LCC/ULCC start-up ventures.

In other words, provider of blunt reality checks for folks believing they’ve unearthed the next greatest airline venture investment.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-hill-436a133

[Realitychex]

Dredging up ancient history, and only what you think you know, from 20+ years and three airlines ago rather than formulating a compelling counter argument.

Sadly, a completely predictable response.

Anyone on the planet who has any sort of intellectual curiosity can easily collect and collate any airline’s daily operational data from sites like Flightaware or Flightradar24, though admittedly, it’s a lot easier when you’re dealing with just 42 tails, and especially when the tails operate a total of just 80 to 100 sectors a day.

You can check the CCAR’s periodically to make sure you have the up to date roster of all the aircraft in the respective airline’s fleet.

Anyone can secure Embraer’s marketing materials and industry analysis that provides data on maintenance and fuel costs over 1,000 and 1,500 mile sectors. Extrapolation is easy, allowing a 10% allowance as stage length expands as we all know these numbers aren’t linear.

Anyone with C-Suite contacts, especially those who operate the jets in question, can get info on the monthly nut, whether it’s paid to a bank or an lessor, associated with ownership of various airframe types. It’s not a whole lot different than a car loan, albeit with wings. Lessors buy airplanes, they want a return on their investment at long established industry rates.

Anyone can scope out what % DoC’s are of any publicly traded airline’s fully allocated operating costs. It’s a fairly narrow band.

Anyone who’s handy with Excel can take the info, roll it up and draw conclusions that are based on the aforementioned hard data.

If you question the numbers, do the homework yourself. I’m not going to do it for you or provide the data points.

Do it yourself. And don’t be surprised if the numbers are identical.

I have absolutely zero skin in the game in the Cdn sector and haven’t since Onex took over WS 4 years ago. I could care less either way. I have benefits on all of them via the various airlines I’ve been involved with over the past 30 years.

I don’t even spend much time in Canada any more. There are way bigger sandboxes to play in elsewhere and the weather is much better in the desert.

This all being said, if the data on Porter, or anyone else operating pre IPO suggested they were printing money, I’d be extremely bullish on them and would happily steer quite a bit of private equity from various sources on both sides of the border their way. Done it before, and I’d more than happy to do it again.

If it were established that Porter was profitable operating sub 6hrs a day as they currently are, with 3+ hours a day of hyper profitable aircraft time sandbagged, there are no shortage of equity investors who would be pounding on their doors trying to get a piece of the action.

Investors such as myself don’t care how much dough an airline has in the bank.

Whats important is whether or not they consistently generate an operating profit or not and whether or not there’s a 10-15 bagger to be had, period.

All the rest is just noise.

[Ozinater]

Dredging up ancient history, and only what you think you know, from 20+ years and three airlines ago rather than formulating a compelling counter argument.

Sadly, a completely predictable response.

Good to know that the passage of time absolves you from any wrongdoing.

“Clive made me do it!"

Anyone on the planet who has any sort of intellectual curiosity can easily collect and collate any airline’s daily operational data from sites like Flightaware or Flightradar24, though admittedly, it’s a lot easier when you’re dealing with just 42 tails, and especially when the tails operate a total of just 80 to 100 sectors a day.

You can check the CCAR’s periodically to make sure you have the up to date roster of all the aircraft in the respective airline’s fleet.

Anyone can secure Embraer’s marketing materials and industry analysis that provides data on maintenance and fuel costs over 1,000 and 1,500 mile sectors. Extrapolation is easy, allowing a 10% allowance as stage length expands as we all know these numbers aren’t linear.

This is essentially the extent of what you have posted that is verifiable (via Flightradar24, Transport Canada, and Embraer).

Anyone with C-Suite contacts, especially those who operate the jets in question, can get info on the monthly nut, whether it’s paid to a bank or an lessor, associated with ownership of various airframe types. It’s not a whole lot different than a car loan, albeit with wings. Lessors buy airplanes, they want a return on their investment at long established industry rates.

Anyone with C-Suite contacts eh? So we’ll just take your word for it that despite you having “zero skin in the game in the Cdn sector”, and seemingly residing outside of the country most of the time, you were given wholeheartedly accurate information from the aforementioned contacts? I became acquainted with a gentleman who worked for a firm that facilitated the sale/leaseback of the E2s, and he told me the details were confidential.

Anyone can scope out what % DoC’s are of any publicly traded airline’s fully allocated operating costs. It’s a fairly narrow band.

You have used Air Canada’s direct operating cost percentage as your example. And then you claimed to know all of the following:
-The E2 monthly lease rate
-The sale price of the E2 to the lessor
-The interest rate on the leases

Anyone who’s handy with Excel can take the info, roll it up and draw conclusions that are based on the aforementioned hard data.

If you question the numbers, do the homework yourself. I’m not going to do it for you or provide the data points.

Do it yourself. And don’t be surprised if the numbers are identical.

Ah, there it is. The hallmark of someone who refuses to cite their sources. No one is asking you to do simple arithmetic for them. You have included several figures that you claim are “known” or “given” (listed above), and used them to estimate unit costs.

Your unwillingness to substantiate any of these and instead defer to the audience (“do the homework yourself”) is an indication that you have no reputable source.

How about this, Mark. Post the relevant documents. Lease agreement, bill of sale, etc. By your own admission, you have no skin in this game. WestJet isn’t going to fire you twice.

I could care less either way.

Your post history on this site and Airliners.net would suggest otherwise.

I don’t even spend much time in Canada any more.

Yet you have intimate knowledge of the financials of a privately traded Canadian company that you have never worked for. Impressive.

This all being said, if the data on Porter, or anyone else operating pre IPO suggested they were printing money, I’d be extremely bullish on them and would happily steer quite a bit of private equity from various sources on both sides of the border their way. Done it before, and I’d more than happy to do it again.

If it were established that Porter was profitable operating sub 6hrs a day as they currently are, with 3+ hours a day of hyper profitable aircraft time sandbagged, there are no shortage of equity investors who would be pounding on their doors trying to get a piece of the action.

And what data do you have on Porter that is not purely anecdotal? You also realize there is already a fairly significant amount of private equity from both Canada and the US backing them, right?

Not suggesting they are printing money hand over fist. Rather that the operation is likely maturing to the point of profitability if it is not already.

Investors such as myself don’t care how much dough an airline has in the bank.

Whats important is whether or not they consistently generate an operating profit or not and whether or not there’s a 10-15 bagger to be had, period.

All the rest is just noise.

I am curious as to how an airline that supposedly has never turned an operating profit for almost two decades, and is now highly leveraged, can attract any investors at all?

[Realitychex]

IMG_8510.jpeg (1.14 MiB) Viewed 2683 times

IMG_8509.jpeg (896.08 KiB) Viewed 2683 times

The real world E2 numbers are actually better than reported here and are incorporated into the analysis.

Oct 20-26
Fleet: 42
Sectors Operated: 646
ASL: 1,298 statute
ASM’s: 110,732,160
Weekly Airborne Hours: 1,857.2

That’s more than enough to allow your own quantitative analysis. It shouldn’t take you more than an hour, providing you know your way around Excel.

Feel free to share your conclusions.

[Realitychex]

I’d provide the granular operating stats for the week of Sun Oct 27th to Nov 2 so you could be the first to post the numbers but at the time of this post, we’re still 2 sectors short of a complete data set, (LAS-YYZ redeye 05:42 arrival and a 00:51 YYZ-YVR arrival airborne times are missing).

If you’re doing any serious quantitative analysis, you’ll know that 12 airframes, (28.5% of the fleet), were in the weeds on Saturday and a total of 86 sectors operated. Utilization will be around 6hrs 5mins with an asl of around 1,350 miles, (again, subject to the hours generated by the last two missing flights).

Saturday’s OTP will be very close to an excellent 98%.

Air Canada paid 98.2 cents a liter for jet A in 3Q.

That should help with your calculations.

[Mac08]

Everyone already knows who he is... Mark Hill, aka the Westjet executive who got caught like a moron getting Air Canada flight loads in the early days of Westjet.

15+ years of predicting Porters downfall and he's still crying like a baby it hasn't happened yet.

I was skeptical. So googled the name. From a linkedIn page with the name Mark Hill:

Mark Hill

LCC/ULCC Industry Consultant - Co-founder, WestJet Airlines, Provider of capital to startup airlines with viable business plans.
Scottsdale, Arizona, United States Contact Info


Self Employed

University of Victoria

About
Experienced analyst with a demonstrated history of both strategic planning and working in the LCC / ULCC space.

Strong business development skills in LCC/ULCC start-up ventures.

In other words, provider of blunt reality checks for folks believing they’ve unearthed the next greatest airline venture investment.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-hill-436a133

If you dig a little bit more you'll get this gem...

"Porter has no hope of success. He's trying to bamboozle folks so they'll pay him not to do it...Porter's business plan is a stupid one, written by Deluce's MBA son who hasn't a clue how the industry works. 99% of all airline startups fail within 14 months and this will be one of them." The son is later referred to as "a 25-year old marvel out of MBA school". "Some pretty very sophisticated investors have invested in some pretty dumb airlines," Hill remarks explaining why OMERS and other investors have put their money into Porter.

Still salty he hasn't been correct. The funny thing is you can tell this burns him on the inside just by the way he posts Don't worry Marky, you'll always be known as the moron that got caught, I doubt even a 12 year would be dumb enough to get caught like that. Then again, I can't imagine an airline that would hire someone with an ego and mental capacity of a 12 year old to advise them.

[Realitychex]

Here's are Porter's operating numbers from 20 Oct to Nov 2nd inclusive. You'll need these for your calculations.

Sectors Operated: 1,232
Total Seats Gemnerated: 162,624
ASL: 1,317.8 miles
ASM's Generated: 214,310,844
Average Daily Utilization per Tail: 6hrs 7 mins

Here are a few more sources that'll help you in your quest to figure out operating costs:

A statute mile is about 15.1% longer than a nautical mile.

Nav fees on YYZ-YVR on a 132 seat, 61,500 kg MTOW, E2 will run about $13.20 per seat and $10.83 on a 189 seat 82,363 kg MTOW737-800. Feel free to calculate numbers on all the routes. You'll need them for accuracy.

https://www1.navcanada.ca/OnlineForms/F ... tro_en.asp

Here's a typical page of airport Fees and Charges. This is for YVR.

https://www.yvr.ca/en/business/fees-and-charges

They are available for all airports. Naturally, you'll have to figure out the airline's schedule to determine how many fees are charged weekly and where, using what cost driver, (could be based on MTOW, aircraft capacity or actual passengers landed).

At YVR, the landing fee is $6.68 per 1000 KG of MTOW.

For a 61,500 kg, 132 passenger E2, you'll figure out the fee is $3.11 per seat vs $2.91 on a 189 seat 737-800.

But there's more. All the various airport fees and charges have to be calculated, or at least estimated and accounted for with some sort of defensible / scalable cost driver. If you've been around the industry for a while, you should have a pretty good idea what they might look like.

You'd best stay up on forex rates. It's currently .7167.

Crew per tail? 2 pilots and 3 F/A's on a 132 seat E2, 2 pilots and 4 F/A's on a 189 seat 737-800.

Any guesses as to contracted RON hotel rates? If you're in the industry, you can probably get a good idea what those rates look like if you frequent your link to the staff travel sites. You'll need to calculate the weekly sched to determine how many RON / hotel nights are required, and what the per diems might look like.

Got any idea what the cost per passenger for inflight catering is? You'll need to figure that out. Same with Wifi access. Perhaps you know someone who's airlines operate both the E2 and the A220 with free wifi. Text him. He'll tell you.

Good luck. I'm looking forward to seeing what you come up with.

Then we can have an intelligent debate.

[Mac08]

Here's are Porter's operating numbers from 20 Oct to Nov 2nd inclusive. You'll need these for your calculations.

Sectors Operated: 1,232
Total Seats Gemnerated: 162,624
ASL: 1,317.8 miles
ASM's Generated: 214,310,844
Average Daily Utilization per Tail: 6hrs 7 mins

Here are a few more sources that'll help you in your quest to figure out operating costs:

A statute mile is about 15.1% longer than a nautical mile.

Nav fees on YYZ-YVR on a 132 seat, 61,500 kg MTOW, E2 will run about $13.20 per seat and $10.83 on a 189 seat 82,363 kg MTOW737-800. Feel free to calculate numbers on all the routes. You'll need them for accuracy.

https://www1.navcanada.ca/OnlineForms/F ... tro_en.asp

Here's a typical page of airport Fees and Charges. This is for YVR.

https://www.yvr.ca/en/business/fees-and-charges

They are available for all airports. Naturally, you'll have to figure out the airline's schedule to determine how many fees are charged weekly and where, using what cost driver, (could be based on MTOW, aircraft capacity or actual passengers landed).

At YVR, the landing fee is $6.68 per 1000 KG of MTOW.

For a 61,500 kg, 132 passenger E2, you'll figure out the fee is $3.11 per seat vs $2.91 on a 189 seat 737-800.

But there's more. All the various airport fees and charges have to be calculated, or at least estimated and accounted for with some sort of defensible / scalable cost driver. If you've been around the industry for a while, you should have a pretty good idea what they might look like.

You'd best stay up on forex rates. It's currently .7167.

Crew per tail? 2 pilots and 3 F/A's on a 132 seat E2, 2 pilots and 4 F/A's on a 189 seat 737-800.

Any guesses as to contracted RON hotel rates? If you're in the industry, you can probably get a good idea what those rates look like if you frequent your link to the staff travel sites. You'll need to calculate the weekly sched to determine how many RON / hotel nights are required, and what the per diems might look like.

Got any idea what the cost per passenger for inflight catering is? You'll need to figure that out. Same with Wifi access. Perhaps you know someone who's airlines operate both the E2 and the A220 with free wifi. Text him. He'll tell you.

Good luck. I'm looking forward to seeing what you come up with.

Then we can have an intelligent debate.

Porter is going under any day now... Or any year...

[newlygrounded]

Dredging up ancient history, and only what you think you know, from 20+ years and three airlines ago rather than formulating a compelling counter argument.

Sadly, a completely predictable response.

Anyone on the planet who has any sort of intellectual curiosity can easily collect and collate any airline’s daily operational data from sites like Flightaware or Flightradar24, though admittedly, it’s a lot easier when you’re dealing with just 42 tails, and especially when the tails operate a total of just 80 to 100 sectors a day.

You can check the CCAR’s periodically to make sure you have the up to date roster of all the aircraft in the respective airline’s fleet.

Anyone can secure Embraer’s marketing materials and industry analysis that provides data on maintenance and fuel costs over 1,000 and 1,500 mile sectors. Extrapolation is easy, allowing a 10% allowance as stage length expands as we all know these numbers aren’t linear.

Anyone with C-Suite contacts, especially those who operate the jets in question, can get info on the monthly nut, whether it’s paid to a bank or an lessor, associated with ownership of various airframe types. It’s not a whole lot different than a car loan, albeit with wings. Lessors buy airplanes, they want a return on their investment at long established industry rates.

Anyone can scope out what % DoC’s are of any publicly traded airline’s fully allocated operating costs. It’s a fairly narrow band.

Anyone who’s handy with Excel can take the info, roll it up and draw conclusions that are based on the aforementioned hard data.

If you question the numbers, do the homework yourself. I’m not going to do it for you or provide the data points.

Do it yourself. And don’t be surprised if the numbers are identical.

I have absolutely zero skin in the game in the Cdn sector and haven’t since Onex took over WS 4 years ago. I could care less either way. I have benefits on all of them via the various airlines I’ve been involved with over the past 30 years.

I don’t even spend much time in Canada any more. There are way bigger sandboxes to play in elsewhere and the weather is much better in the desert.

This all being said, if the data on Porter, or anyone else operating pre IPO suggested they were printing money, I’d be extremely bullish on them and would happily steer quite a bit of private equity from various sources on both sides of the border their way. Done it before, and I’d more than happy to do it again.

If it were established that Porter was profitable operating sub 6hrs a day as they currently are, with 3+ hours a day of hyper profitable aircraft time sandbagged, there are no shortage of equity investors who would be pounding on their doors trying to get a piece of the action.

Investors such as myself don’t care how much dough an airline has in the bank.

Whats important is whether or not they consistently generate an operating profit or not and whether or not there’s a 10-15 bagger to be had, period.

All the rest is just noise.

Hi Jimbo!

[Realitychex]

If you dig a little bit more you'll get this gem...

"Porter has no hope of success. He's trying to bamboozle folks so they'll pay him not to do it...Porter's business plan is a stupid one, written by Deluce's MBA son who hasn't a clue how the industry works. 99% of all airline startups fail within 14 months and this will be one of them." The son is later referred to as "a 25-year old marvel out of MBA school". "Some pretty very sophisticated investors have invested in some pretty dumb airlines," Hill remarks explaining why OMERS and other investors have put their money into Porter.

Still salty he hasn't been correct. The funny thing is you can tell this burns him on the inside just by the way he posts Don't worry Marky, you'll always be known as the moron that got caught, I doubt even a 12 year would be dumb enough to get caught like that. Then again, I can't imagine an airline that would hire someone with an ego and mental capacity of a 12 year old to advise them.
[/quote]

I take it you were aware of Porter's plans to sell the $60m YTZ terminal to Nieuport Aviation Holdings for >$700m a decade before it occurred, and 4 years before a shovel went into the ground?

Wow. Got any more predictions like that? What's going to happen in 2034? We could make a fortune!!

And you must also be aware that Porter's Q400 operation has been subjected to some hard core due diligence by a couple of carriers over the years, with no takers?

Are you aware how easy it is to check loads? I have some business to take care of in Ottawa this week so it's good to know there are 64 seats currently open on PD 652, LAS-YOW and 55 seats on PD642 PHX-YYZ later today? A 58% l/f after about a month of ops on a peak Sunday? That's sounds promising. Looks like no probs wandering over to T3 at Sky Harbor at 12:15 with my MYID Travel confirmation number in hand.

4 startups since 1994, about one every 7 years. Their current collective operating fleets stand at 635 tails, ranging from Q400's, through both Boeing and Airbus narrow bodies to 787's. Not a bad legacy....and it's certainly resulted in a nice, warm desert lifestyle and quality of life for the family with fabulous flight benefits. Not bad for someone who was "fired" eh?

If you've got some contrary verifiable evidence to suggest Porter is, or will be printing money anytime soon, I'll be the first to jump on the band wagon and put low 7 figures where my mouth is.

The problem is, there's never been any such evidence. Lots of talk and name calling, but never any evidence.

The big money is made by buying in with private equity and waiting patiently for the 10-15x (min) post IPO bagger. In WS's case, for the 1994 founders who's shares were originally purchased at 25 cents was a 418x bagger after 26 years, with a $31 share price after three 3-2 splits. Investors tend to pay attention to folks with that sort of track record.

So you're absolutely correct. With that sort of upside, there's absolutely no reason to need to be "hired" by anyone and have to deal with the daily annoyance of "going to work" for someone, somewhere. That ship sailed long ago. But it's sure fun to parlay the experience and knowledge to be invited to become involved at a founding level with start-ups where lighting can, has, and likely will again strike twice.

[Mac08]

Blah Blah Blah, just a bunch of yapping because you were wrong and can't get over it. You need a new hobby, I suggest not one like harvesting loads from airline employee travel sites.

[TPP]

I feel like Realitychex is the reason why "old man yell at cloud" meme was invented.

This is a thread about porter pilots wanting to unionize. Not a platform for you to yell "porter is going to go under" for the 99th time on avcanada on 99 different threads.

Maybe we should focus on the topic as hand. Please go yell somewhere else about how we all going to be on the street soon.

[khedrei]

Here's are Porter's operating numbers from 20 Oct to Nov 2nd inclusive. You'll need these for your calculations.

Sectors Operated: 1,232
Total Seats Gemnerated: 162,624
ASL: 1,317.8 miles
ASM's Generated: 214,310,844
Average Daily Utilization per Tail: 6hrs 7 mins

Here are a few more sources that'll help you in your quest to figure out operating costs:

A statute mile is about 15.1% longer than a nautical mile.

Nav fees on YYZ-YVR on a 132 seat, 61,500 kg MTOW, E2 will run about $13.20 per seat and $10.83 on a 189 seat 82,363 kg MTOW737-800. Feel free to calculate numbers on all the routes. You'll need them for accuracy.

https://www1.navcanada.ca/OnlineForms/F ... tro_en.asp

Here's a typical page of airport Fees and Charges. This is for YVR.

https://www.yvr.ca/en/business/fees-and-charges

They are available for all airports. Naturally, you'll have to figure out the airline's schedule to determine how many fees are charged weekly and where, using what cost driver, (could be based on MTOW, aircraft capacity or actual passengers landed).

At YVR, the landing fee is $6.68 per 1000 KG of MTOW.

For a 61,500 kg, 132 passenger E2, you'll figure out the fee is $3.11 per seat vs $2.91 on a 189 seat 737-800.

But there's more. All the various airport fees and charges have to be calculated, or at least estimated and accounted for with some sort of defensible / scalable cost driver. If you've been around the industry for a while, you should have a pretty good idea what they might look like.

You'd best stay up on forex rates. It's currently .7167.

Crew per tail? 2 pilots and 3 F/A's on a 132 seat E2, 2 pilots and 4 F/A's on a 189 seat 737-800.

Any guesses as to contracted RON hotel rates? If you're in the industry, you can probably get a good idea what those rates look like if you frequent your link to the staff travel sites. You'll need to calculate the weekly sched to determine how many RON / hotel nights are required, and what the per diems might look like.

Got any idea what the cost per passenger for inflight catering is? You'll need to figure that out. Same with Wifi access. Perhaps you know someone who's airlines operate both the E2 and the A220 with free wifi. Text him. He'll tell you.

Good luck. I'm looking forward to seeing what you come up with.

Then we can have an intelligent debate.

I have no idea whether this guy is right about porter or it's numbers... but if his math on porter is the same as his math on a statute mile then I'd bet a low 7 figures against him.

[cdnavater]

Here's are Porter's operating numbers from 20 Oct to Nov 2nd inclusive. You'll need these for your calculations.

Sectors Operated: 1,232
Total Seats Gemnerated: 162,624
ASL: 1,317.8 miles
ASM's Generated: 214,310,844
Average Daily Utilization per Tail: 6hrs 7 mins

Here are a few more sources that'll help you in your quest to figure out operating costs:

A statute mile is about 15.1% longer than a nautical mile.

Nav fees on YYZ-YVR on a 132 seat, 61,500 kg MTOW, E2 will run about $13.20 per seat and $10.83 on a 189 seat 82,363 kg MTOW737-800. Feel free to calculate numbers on all the routes. You'll need them for accuracy.

https://www1.navcanada.ca/OnlineForms/F ... tro_en.asp

Here's a typical page of airport Fees and Charges. This is for YVR.

https://www.yvr.ca/en/business/fees-and-charges

They are available for all airports. Naturally, you'll have to figure out the airline's schedule to determine how many fees are charged weekly and where, using what cost driver, (could be based on MTOW, aircraft capacity or actual passengers landed).

At YVR, the landing fee is $6.68 per 1000 KG of MTOW.

For a 61,500 kg, 132 passenger E2, you'll figure out the fee is $3.11 per seat vs $2.91 on a 189 seat 737-800.

But there's more. All the various airport fees and charges have to be calculated, or at least estimated and accounted for with some sort of defensible / scalable cost driver. If you've been around the industry for a while, you should have a pretty good idea what they might look like.

You'd best stay up on forex rates. It's currently .7167.

Crew per tail? 2 pilots and 3 F/A's on a 132 seat E2, 2 pilots and 4 F/A's on a 189 seat 737-800.

Any guesses as to contracted RON hotel rates? If you're in the industry, you can probably get a good idea what those rates look like if you frequent your link to the staff travel sites. You'll need to calculate the weekly sched to determine how many RON / hotel nights are required, and what the per diems might look like.

Got any idea what the cost per passenger for inflight catering is? You'll need to figure that out. Same with Wifi access. Perhaps you know someone who's airlines operate both the E2 and the A220 with free wifi. Text him. He'll tell you.

Good luck. I'm looking forward to seeing what you come up with.

Then we can have an intelligent debate.

I have no idea whether this guy is right about porter or it's numbers... but if his math on porter is the same as his math on a statute mile then I'd bet a low 7 figures against him.

Every conversion calculator I found uses 1.151 as the generally accepted formula, so…

https://www.boatsafe.com/conversiona-na ... ute-miles/

To convert from statute to nautical miles a factor of 1.15 is generally used, even though it is not precise.
(5,280 feet X 1.15) = 6,072 feet (4.11549…feet less than 1 nautical mile).You could add 4.1 feet for each statute mile to be converted. So the new formula would be: {(5280 feet x 1.15)+ 4.1 feet} divided by 6,076.1 feet = 1 nautical mile.
To convert from nautical to statute miles: The factor 1.15 may be used, but again, it is not precise.
(6076.1 divided by 1.15) = 5,283 feet (3.565..feet more than 1 statute mile). Using a precomputed table (such as Bowditch’s Table 20) will result in the more precise answers.
If you’re looking for a less precise answer that can be done with quick calculations, here are a few things that might help you:
statute miles x .87 = nautical miles
nautical miles x 1.15 = statute miles
As a rule of thumb, roughly 7 nautical miles equals 8 statute miles. You can convert nautical to statute by multiplying nautical miles by 8 and dividing the product by seven. To reverse the conversion, statute miles times 7, then divide by 8.
A Nautical Mile is 1/60th of a degree or one minute of latitude. Be sure you know what distance measurement is being used on the charts you are working with. There are four common measures of distance used on charts:
Nautical miles are used on ocean and coastal waters.
Statute miles are used for inland areas such as the Intracoastal Waterway and the Great Lakes.
Yards are often used to define distances of a mile or less.
Meters are being seen increasingly on U.S. charts and are used almost exclusively on Canadian and other charts of the world

[khedrei]

Here's are Porter's operating numbers from 20 Oct to Nov 2nd inclusive. You'll need these for your calculations.

Sectors Operated: 1,232
Total Seats Gemnerated: 162,624
ASL: 1,317.8 miles
ASM's Generated: 214,310,844
Average Daily Utilization per Tail: 6hrs 7 mins

Here are a few more sources that'll help you in your quest to figure out operating costs:

A statute mile is about 15.1% longer than a nautical mile.

Nav fees on YYZ-YVR on a 132 seat, 61,500 kg MTOW, E2 will run about $13.20 per seat and $10.83 on a 189 seat 82,363 kg MTOW737-800. Feel free to calculate numbers on all the routes. You'll need them for accuracy.

https://www1.navcanada.ca/OnlineForms/F ... tro_en.asp

Here's a typical page of airport Fees and Charges. This is for YVR.

https://www.yvr.ca/en/business/fees-and-charges

They are available for all airports. Naturally, you'll have to figure out the airline's schedule to determine how many fees are charged weekly and where, using what cost driver, (could be based on MTOW, aircraft capacity or actual passengers landed).

At YVR, the landing fee is $6.68 per 1000 KG of MTOW.

For a 61,500 kg, 132 passenger E2, you'll figure out the fee is $3.11 per seat vs $2.91 on a 189 seat 737-800.

But there's more. All the various airport fees and charges have to be calculated, or at least estimated and accounted for with some sort of defensible / scalable cost driver. If you've been around the industry for a while, you should have a pretty good idea what they might look like.

You'd best stay up on forex rates. It's currently .7167.

Crew per tail? 2 pilots and 3 F/A's on a 132 seat E2, 2 pilots and 4 F/A's on a 189 seat 737-800.

Any guesses as to contracted RON hotel rates? If you're in the industry, you can probably get a good idea what those rates look like if you frequent your link to the staff travel sites. You'll need to calculate the weekly sched to determine how many RON / hotel nights are required, and what the per diems might look like.

Got any idea what the cost per passenger for inflight catering is? You'll need to figure that out. Same with Wifi access. Perhaps you know someone who's airlines operate both the E2 and the A220 with free wifi. Text him. He'll tell you.

Good luck. I'm looking forward to seeing what you come up with.

Then we can have an intelligent debate.

I have no idea whether this guy is right about porter or it's numbers... but if his math on porter is the same as his math on a statute mile then I'd bet a low 7 figures against him.

Every conversion calculator I found uses 1.151 as the generally accepted formula, so…

https://www.boatsafe.com/conversiona-na ... ute-miles/

To convert from statute to nautical miles a factor of 1.15 is generally used, even though it is not precise.
(5,280 feet X 1.15) = 6,072 feet (4.11549…feet less than 1 nautical mile).You could add 4.1 feet for each statute mile to be converted. So the new formula would be: {(5280 feet x 1.15)+ 4.1 feet} divided by 6,076.1 feet = 1 nautical mile.
To convert from nautical to statute miles: The factor 1.15 may be used, but again, it is not precise.
(6076.1 divided by 1.15) = 5,283 feet (3.565..feet more than 1 statute mile). Using a precomputed table (such as Bowditch’s Table 20) will result in the more precise answers.
If you’re looking for a less precise answer that can be done with quick calculations, here are a few things that might help you:
statute miles x .87 = nautical miles
nautical miles x 1.15 = statute miles
As a rule of thumb, roughly 7 nautical miles equals 8 statute miles. You can convert nautical to statute by multiplying nautical miles by 8 and dividing the product by seven. To reverse the conversion, statute miles times 7, then divide by 8.
A Nautical Mile is 1/60th of a degree or one minute of latitude. Be sure you know what distance measurement is being used on the charts you are working with. There are four common measures of distance used on charts:
Nautical miles are used on ocean and coastal waters.
Statute miles are used for inland areas such as the Intracoastal Waterway and the Great Lakes.
Yards are often used to define distances of a mile or less.
Meters are being seen increasingly on U.S. charts and are used almost exclusively on Canadian and other charts of the world

Ok... I agree with you. Thanks for the big write up.

What part of this has anything to do with my comment?

[Realitychex]

Blah Blah Blah, just a bunch of yapping because you were wrong and can't get over it. You need a new hobby, I suggest not one like harvesting loads from airline employee travel sites.

Ha!

My hobby is turning small investments in the airline sector into large fortunes for many, many folks over the years.

I’m pretty good at it too.

Salaries pay the bills. Salaries don’t create wealth.

Wealth is created by figuring out who’s built a better mousetrap way, way ahead of others. It’s called analysis. Familiarize yourself with the concept.

As for the nm vs statue mile debate, this has been the source of stat miles for at least 25 years. It has served countless investors very well indeed.

http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=YYC- ... MAP-STYLE=

Debating matters here is like trying to debate a die hard MAGA / Trump supporter.

Hard data is refuted with denials and completely unsubstantiated, counter claims made in anonymity, yet I’m expected to take it at face value. It’s quite amusing.

But agreed. The thread has strayed.

My original point was that were I an FO at Porter, I’d be jumping at the first opportunity to switch to AC or WS mainline.

I personally know a young chap who left Porter and recently finished his first 2 weeks of AC ground school and is headed to WB flying.

I’ve heard the stories of what’s going on there, from lengthy entries in the Cabin Defect Logbook, light takeoff weights, FOAG nightmares and relentless cockpit conversations, regurgitated on these sites near verbatim of just how amazing Porter is.

And then there’s the GTF issue. There are well over 500 A32x tails currently parked world wide and fewer than 20 E2’s, (but stay tuned on that file). Last I heard, and I stand to be corrected, there were 8 engines down at Porter.

Any guesses which Airframer is getting all Pratt’s attention these days?

Hint: it isn’t Embraer.